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德业股份(605117):2025年秋季策略会速递:新兴市场持续拓展,工商储出货亮眼
HTSC· 2025-08-29 11:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 82.95 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company's inverter business is experiencing a recovery in demand in Europe and significant growth in emerging markets, demonstrating strong profitability resilience [3][4]. - The commercial storage product shipments have shown impressive year-on-year growth of 213%, with new products over 100kW being launched and gradually ramping up [4][5]. - The company is actively developing in the AIDC field, having established a research team focused on solid-state transformers [5]. Summary by Sections Inverter Business - The completion of inventory reduction in European household storage and the expansion of commercial storage are noted, with favorable policy subsidies in Eastern Europe contributing to a gradual market recovery [4]. - The company has tailored solutions for the Indonesian market, addressing its unique logistical and installation challenges, and anticipates rapid growth in shipments following the July subsidy implementation in Australia [4]. Commercial Storage - In the first half of the year, the company shipped 42,900 commercial storage inverters, marking a year-on-year increase of 213% due to the introduction of dynamic pricing mechanisms in Europe [4]. - The company aims to achieve a monthly shipment of 1,000 units by the end of the year for its new 100kW+ commercial storage inverters [4]. Battery Packs - The company reported battery pack revenue of RMB 1.422 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting an 85.8% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in Q3 [4]. - The interfaces for battery packs associated with the new 100kW+ commercial storage products are not open to external access, which is expected to drive sales of the company's supporting battery packs [4]. Employee Incentives - An employee stock ownership plan was announced, allowing up to 800 employees to subscribe to 0.21% of the company's shares at RMB 30.19 per share, with performance targets set for 2025 [5]. AIDC Development - The company is leveraging its strong technical expertise in power electronics to enter the AIDC market, with plans to launch products within approximately 18 months [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.73 billion, RMB 44.36 billion, and RMB 52.87 billion respectively, maintaining a target PE of 21 times for 2025 [6][11].