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德业股份(605117):回购彰显公司信心 看好全年盈利能力具备韧性
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 06:26
Company Update - The company has completed a share buyback, repurchasing 1.9072 million shares, which accounts for 0.21% of its total share capital, with a maximum price of 53.75 CNY/share, a minimum price of 49.9 CNY/share, and an average price of 52.44 CNY/share, utilizing approximately 100 million CNY in total funds (excluding transaction fees) [1] Commentary - The buyback reflects the company's confidence in future growth and emphasizes shareholder returns. The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, which may help align the interests of the company and its employees [2] - Short-term energy storage inverter shipments are expected to increase quarter-on-quarter in Q2 and Q3, with steady growth in household storage and a surge in industrial storage demand. The company anticipates a 20%-30% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 shipments, with industrial storage shipments projected at 25,000 to 30,000 units. Q3 shipments are also expected to maintain a quarter-on-quarter growth trend, with some markets like Ukraine experiencing a decline in demand [2] - The average power rating for the company's industrial storage products is currently 30KW, and new products with 100KW and 125KW ratings have been successfully delivered. A complete industrial storage solution (e.g., 125KW inverter + 215KWh battery pack) is valued at approximately 260,000 CNY, and the company is optimistic about increasing the proportion of industrial storage inverter shipments, which currently stands at about 12% [2] Long-term Outlook - The company maintains a strong leadership position in the user-side energy storage sector, with a comprehensive product series and rapid iteration speed. Its low-voltage solutions for household storage are competitive in emerging markets and Europe. The inverter industry is brand and channel-driven, making it difficult for other manufacturers to gain market share through price competition [3] - Market demand is driven by the urgent need for electricity in emerging markets, and as the prices of components and batteries decrease, the return on investment for household and industrial storage is improving. In Europe, the adoption of dynamic pricing is expected to significantly boost industrial storage demand, which currently has a low penetration rate [3] - The company has achieved a 20% price reduction for its newly launched energy storage inverters compared to the previous generation, with household storage inverters maintaining a gross margin of over 40% and industrial storage inverters currently at a gross margin of 60%. The company expects to maintain a gross margin level above 50% in the long term [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains an outperform rating, slightly lowering its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8% and 6% to 3.4 billion CNY and 4.5 billion CNY, respectively, due to fluctuating demand in markets like Ukraine and Latin America. The target price has been reduced by 27% to 80 CNY, corresponding to 21x and 16x P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 49% upside potential from the current stock price, which corresponds to 14x and 11x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [4]