Geopolitical Risk & Market Impact - Israel launched Operation Rising Line, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, escalating Middle East tensions [1][62] - Oil prices surged as much as 13% due to fears of a wider war impacting a third of global crude production [2][63] - Brent crude rose nearly 9%, trading around $75.47-$75.48 per barrel [3] - S&P futures fell over 1.5%, reflecting a risk-off mood in the markets [4][120] - Gold prices increased over 1%, nearing record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets [5][47] Potential Economic Consequences - A sustained rise in energy prices could lead to higher transport costs in Asia, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates and support domestic demand [51] - The Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of global oil output passes, is a potential target, threatening to cause oil prices to skyrocket [30][44] - The US dollar experienced a knee-jerk jump due to risk aversion, but its strength is unlikely to last due to underlying macro weaknesses and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [67][69] Strategic Analysis & Regional Response - Israel believes Iran was rapidly moving towards weaponization, potentially building nine atom bombs in the coming months, justifying the operation [13][14] - The US administration signaled a "proceed with caution" approach, allowing Israel to take the risk in hopes of breaking the diplomatic stalemate [24][25] - Oman condemned Israel's actions, and Gulf states are likely to distance themselves, emphasizing neutrality and signaling to Iran they have no interest in escalation [32][33][34] - Iran's armed forces chief of staff was reportedly killed in the strikes [37] - Saudi Arabia condemned Israel's attack on Iran, describing the incident as blatant [74]

Group 1 - The trade talks between China and the U.S. resulted in lower tariffs, boosting market sentiment and leading to a significant increase in stock prices at the start of the week [1] - Newmont Corporation (NEM) experienced a decline of 4.9%, trading at $51.33, marking its worst daily percentage drop since early April, despite a 20% year-over-year gain [2] - Options traders showed bullish sentiment with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.27, ranking higher than 78% of readings from the past year [2] Group 2 - Short-term traders have also leaned bullish, indicated by NEM's put/call open interest ratio of 0.61, which is in the 34th percentile of annual readings [3] - Newmont stock has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 82 out of 100, suggesting a favorable environment for options trading [3]