欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 引言 当地时间1月3日凌晨，委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯多处地区遭遇美军持续约一小时的轰炸，具体地点包括军用机场、国防部、港口等目标。期间美军 三角洲特种部队抓获了熟睡中的该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带往美国。最新消息，1月5日联合国安理会在纽约联合国总部就委内瑞拉局 势举行紧急会议。会上，多国声援委内瑞拉，中国、俄罗斯等多国代表就美国对委军事行动表示强烈谴责。 美委冲突的爆发，本质上是地缘政治博弈与资源争夺的必然结果。除去原油之外，委内瑞拉也同样拥有丰富的有色金属及贵金属资源。我们就本 次冲突对有色金属（铜、铝、镍）、贵金属（黄金、白银、铂、钯）市场以及可能产生的产业链成本冲击产生的可能性做出分析，并对当下企业 如何应对本次局面给出建议。预计本次文章阅读需要15-20分钟的时间。 目录 地缘政治风险传导机制 01 委内瑞拉金属资源分布与出口依赖度 委内瑞拉金属资源呈现高度集中化分布格局。如奥里诺科铁矿带储量占委内瑞拉铁矿总储量的92%，探明储量达210亿吨，平均品位达 45%-65%，是全球最大未 ...

The safe-haven trade in precious metals is showing little sign of cooling, with gold, silver, and platinum extending gains into Friday’s session. Gold futures climbed ~1.6% to trade above the $4,500 level, while silver jumped more than 3% amid tight physical markets and strong industrial demand. Platinum also traded near the upper end of its recent range as supply constraints continued to support prices. Precious metals are rallying due to a "perfect storm" of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, expecta ...

Advisors and investors of all kinds are keeping a close eye on how the Fed's rate maneuvers shift the market, and that certainly includes gold bugs. It's well-known at this point that gold tends to perform exceptionally well when interest rates are lowered. This is in part due to how rate cuts tend to create a less favorable environment for fixed income strategies, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Even if there wasn't a Fed meeting this week, gold is still a high-value asset. As Paul Wong, CFA, Mark ...

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Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Widmer, project gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an expected average of $4,538 per ounce for the year. This aggressive forecast is driven by unorthodox U.S. economic policies, specifically growing government deficits and national debt, which erode the dollar's purchasing power and push investors toward hard assets. While a hawkish Fed poses a risk, the bank sees fiscal pressure as the dominant, persistent force driving gold's long-term strength.This ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $4,300 per ounce, driven by investor preference for safe-haven assets amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1] - Silver has also surged, hitting $52 per ounce, marking a 60% increase since April [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rally in precious metals may be influenced by both speculative trading and fundamental factors [2] - The commodities sector, particularly precious metals, is less susceptible to retail trader influence compared to individual stocks [3] - Factors driving investment in gold and silver include a weak U.S. dollar, political instability, central bank buying, and increased industrial demand [7] Group 2: Investment Vehicles - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are recommended for gaining exposure to precious metals without the challenges of physical ownership [4] - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) offers high liquidity and holds physical silver, with $26.95 billion in assets under management [8][9] - abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR) provides diversified exposure to multiple precious metals, with a focus on gold [10][11] - Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) invests in futures contracts to minimize tax implications, with a unique tax treatment under Section 1256 of the tax code [12][13][14]

Company Investment - Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) announced a historic $13 billion investment over the next four years to enhance its manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. [3] - This investment will support the production of five new vehicles and aims to increase overall production by 50% compared to current levels, along with introducing 19 refreshed products and updated powertrains by 2029 [3][4]. Specific Allocations - The investment includes $600 million to reopen the Belvidere Assembly Plant for Jeep production, $400 million to upgrade the Toledo Assembly Complex for Wrangler and Gladiator models, and additional funding for the Warren Truck plant to develop a new range-extended EV and ICE SUV [5]. - Further investment will be directed to Kokomo, Indiana, for the production of the GMET4 EVO engine [5]. Cost Mitigation - The U.S. investment is expected to mitigate approximately $1.74 billion in tariff costs associated with affected vehicles and components [5].

Market Trends - Silver prices reached an all-time high above $52.50 per ounce [1] - A historic short squeeze in London added momentum to the rally [1] - Surging demand for safe-haven assets fueled the rally [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce due to escalating geopolitical tensions from Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure [1][3] - Crude oil prices also declined, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude experiencing drops of 0.37% and 0.44% respectively [4] Geopolitical Context - Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine's energy assets, with over 1,550 attacks reported in recent days, particularly affecting regions like Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava [3] - The attacks have resulted in injuries and power outages in Kyiv, reflecting a strategy to disrupt civilian access to energy during winter [2] Market Reactions - Following the attacks, gold prices decreased by 0.24% to $3,966.57, down from a previous high of $4,059.34 [3] - Crude oil benchmarks also fell, with WTI at $61.28 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.93 [4] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect continued volatility in crude oil prices, with support levels identified at $60.60-60.00 and resistance at $62.00-62.70 [5] - For gold, support is noted at $3,940-3,910, while resistance is at $4,020-4,045 [5] Broader Market Impact - The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has overshadowed recent optimism from a U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas peace deal, which had previously lifted gold prices above $4,000 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged past $4,000 per ounce, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties, including concerns over the US government shutdown and political turmoil in France [14][70][53] - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year, reflecting a potential annual return of over 50% [40][7] - The demand for gold is being supported by significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly in India, which saw a record inflow of $902 million in September [48][49] Group 2: Silver Market Developments - Silver has also reached a record high of $49.55 per ounce, tracking gold's rally, with a notable increase of 4% in a single day [7][54] - Analysts suggest that silver may present a strong investment opportunity as it gains relative strength over gold [8] Group 3: European Automotive Industry - European car manufacturers are advocating for the EU to relax its 2035 ban on combustion-engine sales, citing concerns over the financial impact of current emission-reduction targets [3][4] - The European Commission has proposed a 50% duty on steel above a quota, which could increase costs for carmakers, leading to a significant drop in their stock values [6][5] - BMW's shares fell by 8.5% due to a profit warning, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by the automotive sector amid trade tensions and regulatory pressures [4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that the US economy is showing signs of slowing, emphasizing the need for fiscal responsibility [19][25] - Economists predict that the eurozone will experience slow growth over the next two years, with inflation expected to undershoot the 2% target [21] - European stock markets have shown resilience, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 rising by 0.9%, despite concerns in the automotive sector [17][56]