Scale-up网络

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算力互连复盘 辨析板块先前和后续成长逻辑的转换
2025-07-21 00:32
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the computing power interconnection sector, focusing on the transition of growth logic within the industry and the implications for major cloud service providers like Google and Microsoft [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Shift from Capex to Token Count**: The correlation between traditional cloud providers' capital expenditure (capex) and industry prosperity has weakened. The growth in TOKEN count is now a more accurate reflection of inference computing power demand, creating an ecological flywheel effect [1][3]. 2. **Transition from GPU to ASIC**: The industry is moving from reliance on GPUs to ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), which offer better cost-performance ratios. This shift suggests that the growth rate of the industry chain may exceed that of cloud providers' capital expenditure [1][4]. 3. **Network Architecture Upgrade**: AI computing demands are driving upgrades in network architecture, including the development of scale-out networks (doubling Ethernet switch capacity and increasing optical module rates) and scale-up networks to meet higher frequency and larger data transmission needs [1][4]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The overseas computing power market has experienced multiple cycles of growth and correction, influenced by technological advancements and product releases, such as those from NVIDIA [1][5][6]. 5. **Characteristics of Scale-Up Networks**: Scale-up networks feature higher bandwidth per card with fewer cards in a cluster. This trend is expected to continue as cloud computing transitions from GPU to ASIC, leading to sustained growth in card quantity and bandwidth demand [1][7]. 6. **Impact of Token Count Growth**: The increase in TOKEN count drives demand for supporting equipment like optical modules, PCBs, and active copper cables, with growth rates likely surpassing that of computing chip shipments [1][8]. 7. **CPO Technology Concerns**: Recent comments from Broadcom regarding CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology alleviated concerns about its potential to replace optical modules and PCBs, primarily due to higher failure rates in CPO compared to traditional components [1][10]. 8. **NVIDIA's Product Strategy**: NVIDIA's product roadmap illustrates the evolution towards scale-up networks, with various configurations being tested to optimize cost and performance [1][11]. 9. **Future Industry Opportunities**: The period from Q1 to Q2 2025 is expected to present three waves of opportunities, including earnings releases, upward revisions of demand expectations, and second-quarter report forecasts, indicating ongoing growth potential in the industry [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - The transition in the computing power market is characterized by evolving logic and technology, with each cycle of growth driven by new innovations and market demands [1][6]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while there are short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the underlying technological advancements and shifts in demand patterns [1][6][12].