Summary of Xiaomi's Q225 Preview and Key Insights Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi - **Industry**: Smartphone and Internet-of-Things (IoT) home-lifestyle company - **Mission**: To build high-quality products at reasonable prices, capping hardware net margin at 5% per year [14][15] Key Financial Metrics - **Q225 Smartphone Sell-Through**: 41 million units, up 0.5% YoY and 1.5% QoQ [2] - **Q225 Estimated Sell-In**: 42.4 million units, in line with sell-through due to lean channel inventory [2] - **Full Year Unit Growth Forecast**: 175 million units, slightly revised down from 176 million [2] - **Q225 Smartphone Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to be flat QoQ at 11.6% [2] Regional Performance - **China**: Sell-through grew 8% YoY, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [2] - **Europe and Rest of World (RoW)**: Recorded declines of -1% and -4% YoY, respectively, due to competition from Samsung and market share gains in emerging markets [2] AIoT Business Insights - **Q225 AIoT Sales Forecast**: RMB 36.6 billion, up 37% YoY; 2025E forecast at RMB 140.6 billion, up 35% YoY [3] - **Margin Expectations**: Seasonal decline expected due to 618 promotions, with a forecasted 3.7 percentage points QoQ decline from Q125's peak [3] - **Challenges**: Receding subsidy impacts and intensified domestic competition may suppress margin upside [3] Electric Vehicle (EV) Segment - **Q225 EV Deliveries**: 82,000 units, up 8% QoQ [4] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to rise to RMB 240,000, with a margin increase of 0.7% [4] - **Future Capacity**: Second EV plant ramp-up is critical for 2H25/2026 shipment forecasts, with expectations of 398,000 and 720,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - **Revised Price Target**: Lowered from HK$62.0 to HK$60.0, maintaining a Neutral rating [5] - **Earnings Forecast Adjustments**: Q225 and 2025 earnings forecasts reduced by 10.4% and 5.5%, respectively [5] - **Valuation Methodology**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with smartphone, AIoT, and internet segments valued at 22.5x 2026E PE [5] Profitability and Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025E at RMB 483.4 billion, growing to RMB 929.7 billion by 2029E [6] - **Net Earnings**: Projected net earnings for 2025E at RMB 42.0 billion, increasing to RMB 92.2 billion by 2029E [6] - **Debt Management**: Net cash position expected to improve significantly by 2029E [6] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include raw material price hikes, competition in the premium smartphone market, and potential declines in IoT demand as subsidies fade [15] - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected adoption of edge-AI smartphones, earlier monetization of IoT products, and higher EV shipments could drive growth [16] Market Position - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately HK$1,348 billion (US$172 billion) [7] - **Free Float**: 59% of shares [7] - **Average Daily Volume**: 151,813 shares [7] Conclusion Xiaomi is navigating a complex landscape with mixed performance across its segments. While the smartphone and AIoT businesses show growth potential, challenges from competition and market dynamics necessitate careful monitoring of margins and capacity expansions, particularly in the EV sector. The revised price target reflects a cautious outlook amid these developments.

Core Viewpoint - XPeng Inc. is set to report its second quarter 2025 unaudited financial results on August 19, 2025, before U.S. market opening [1]. Group 1: Earnings Call Details - The earnings conference call will take place at 8:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on August 19, 2025, which corresponds to 8:00 PM Beijing/Hong Kong Time on the same day [2]. - Participants can join the call by completing pre-registration and dialing in 5 minutes prior to the scheduled start time [2]. - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available on the Company's investor relations website [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - XPeng is a leading Chinese Smart EV company focused on designing, developing, manufacturing, and marketing Smart EVs for technology-savvy middle-class consumers [4]. - The company aims to drive Smart EV transformation through technology, enhancing the future mobility experience [4]. - XPeng develops its full-stack advanced driver-assistance system technology and in-car intelligent operating system in-house, along with core vehicle systems [4].

Core Insights - XPeng Inc. reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, achieving 33,525 Smart EVs in May 2025, which is a 230% year-over-year growth and marks the seventh consecutive month of delivering over 30,000 units [2][7] - For the first five months of 2025, XPeng delivered a total of 162,578 Smart EVs, reflecting a remarkable 293% increase compared to the same period last year [2] Product Launch and Features - On May 28, 2025, the company launched the MONA M03 Max, which lowers the entry price for urban AI smart driving to the 150,000 RMB range, making advanced vehicle technology more accessible to younger consumers [3] - The MONA M03 Max is the first XPeng model equipped with the AI Tianji XOS 5.7.0, offering over 300 new features [3] User Engagement and Technology - XPeng's XNGP achieved a monthly active user penetration rate of 85% in urban driving as of May 2025 [4] - The MONA M03 Max features human-machine co-driving capabilities, allowing both ADAS and drivers to share control, enhancing the collaboration between manual and smart driving [4] Company Overview - XPeng is a leading Chinese Smart EV company focused on designing, developing, manufacturing, and marketing Smart EVs for technology-savvy middle-class consumers [5] - The company is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with manufacturing plants located in Zhaoqing and Guangzhou, Guangdong province [5]

Core Insights - XPeng Inc. reported significant growth in vehicle deliveries and revenues for Q1 2025, achieving a record high in deliveries and a substantial year-over-year revenue increase [2][4][12]. Financial Performance - Total deliveries reached 94,008 vehicles in Q1 2025, a 330.8% increase from 21,821 in Q1 2024 [4]. - Quarterly total revenues were RMB 15.81 billion (US$ 2.18 billion), representing a 141.5% increase year-over-year [3][12]. - Revenues from vehicle sales were RMB 14.37 billion (US$ 1.98 billion), a 159.2% increase from RMB 5.54 billion in Q1 2024 [13]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, up from 12.9% in Q1 2024, while vehicle margin increased to 10.5% from 5.5% in the same period [3][17]. - The net loss for Q1 2025 was RMB 0.66 billion (US$ 0.09 billion), a reduction from RMB 1.37 billion in Q1 2024 [25][27]. Operational Highlights - As of March 31, 2025, XPeng operated 690 stores across 223 cities and had a charging station network of 2,115 stations [4]. - The company has made significant improvements in cost reduction, with vehicle gross margin increasing for seven consecutive quarters [7]. Management Commentary - Management expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth strategy, emphasizing the importance of a strong product cycle and global expansion [7]. Recent Developments - In April 2025, XPeng launched the 2025 XPENG X9, featuring Turing AI Smart Driving as standard [11]. - Deliveries in April 2025 totaled 35,045 vehicles, bringing year-to-date total deliveries to 129,053 [10]. Business Outlook - For Q2 2025, XPeng expects deliveries between 102,000 and 108,000, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 237.7% to 257.5% [33]. - Total revenues are projected to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 115.7% to 130.5% [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi is "Buy" with a target price of HK$73.50, implying an expected share price return of 47.1% [3][24]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 April delivery exceeded 28,000 units, slightly lower than March's 29,000+ due to fewer working days in April. Year-to-date EV delivery is estimated to exceed 104,000 units, representing 30% of its 2025 target of 350,000 units [1]. - The company plans to increase its store count from 269 to 298 by adding 29 stores and expanding into 8 new cities in April 2025 [1]. - The upcoming catalysts include the 1Q25 results, 2Q25 guidance, Mi 15S, AI smart glasses, and YU7 launch [1]. Financial Valuation - Xiaomi shares are valued at HK$73.50 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation based on 2026 estimates, with a P/E multiple of 27.1x for core businesses and 1.5x for smart EV sales, reflecting a strong growth outlook [12]. - The target price corresponds to a 30x adjusted EPS for 2026 [12]. Market Context - Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately HK$1,296,059 million (US$167,113 million) [3]. - The report indicates a solid long-term visibility for Xiaomi's business segments, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services [12].

Core Insights - XPeng Inc. reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with 35,045 Smart EVs delivered in April 2025, representing a 273% year-over-year growth [2][6] - The company has maintained a delivery rate exceeding 30,000 units for six consecutive months, and cumulative deliveries of the XPENG MONA M03 have surpassed 100,000 units [2][6] - For the first four months of 2025, XPeng delivered a total of 129,053 Smart EVs, marking a 313% increase compared to the same period last year [2] Delivery Performance - In April 2025, XPeng achieved a delivery milestone of 35,045 Smart EVs, which is a 273% increase from April 2024 [2] - The XPENG P7+ reached its 50,000th vehicle production milestone within five months of its launch [2] User Engagement and Services - XPeng's advanced driver-assistance system, XNGP, achieved a monthly active user penetration rate of 84% in urban driving as of April 2025 [3] - The company launched its ADAS Insurance Service in China on April 28, 2025, priced at RMB 239 per year, providing additional coverage during NGP operation [3] Company Overview - XPeng is a leading Chinese Smart EV company focused on designing, developing, manufacturing, and marketing Smart EVs for technology-savvy middle-class consumers [4] - The company develops its full-stack advanced driver-assistance system technology and in-car intelligent operating system in-house, along with core vehicle systems [4] - XPeng is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with manufacturing plants located in Zhaoqing and Guangzhou, Guangdong province [4]