May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) today is up +0.35 (+2.25%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up +7.60 (+1.67%). Sugar prices are sharply higher today, with NY sugar posting a 5.5-month high.  Sugar prices are tracking today's +4% surge in crude oil prices (CLK26).  The strength in crude prices boosts ethanol prices and may encourage the world's sugar mills to increase ethanol production and curb sugar output. More News from Barchart Sugar prices also have some support amid supply disruption ...

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) today is up +0.28 (+1.97%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up +11.40 (+2.76%). Sugar prices are climbing today, with London sugar posting a 1-week high as higher crude oil prices encourage the world's sugar mills to boost ethanol production at the expense of sugar.   WTI crude (CLJ26) is up by more than +2% today, boosting ethanol prices and potentially prompting the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, t ...

May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) on Monday closed down -0.18 (-1.25%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed down -1.30 (-0.31%). Sugar prices were under pressure on Monday from weakness in crude oil prices.  WTI crude (CLJ26) fell by more than -4% on Monday, undercutting ethanol prices and potentially prompting the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thereby boosting sugar supplies. More News from Barchart Earlier this month, sugar pr ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices are currently rising but remain below the two-month highs reached earlier in the week, with May NY world sugar 11 up by 0.10 (+0.70%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 up by 0.50 (+0.12%) [1] - The surge in crude oil prices (+8%) is supporting sugar prices, as higher oil prices lead to increased ethanol prices, prompting sugar mills to shift production from sugar to ethanol, thereby reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a smaller surplus of 156,000 MT for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] Group 3: Production Trends - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.22 MMT in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected 3.0% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT [3] - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South region fell by 36% year-on-year in the second half of January, although cumulative output through January rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - India's sugar output from October 1 to February 28 increased by 12% year-on-year to 24.75 MMT, with projections for the 2025/26 season set at 29.3 MMT, also a 12% increase year-on-year [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have recovered from early losses, supported by rising crude oil prices, with May NY world sugar 11 up by +0.08 (+0.58%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 up by +0.60 (+0.15%) [1] - The surge in WTI crude oil prices to a 13.5-month high may lead sugar mills to shift more cane crushing towards ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] Group 3: Production Insights - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a +1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with a projected global production rise of +3.0% year-on-year to 181.3 million MMT [3] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of January fell by -36% year-on-year to 5,000 MT, although cumulative output through January is up by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - Safras & Mercado predicts Brazil's sugar production will decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] Group 4: India's Sugar Production - India's sugar output from October 1 to February 28 was up +12% year-on-year to 24.75 MMT, with a projected total production of 29.3 MMT for 2025/26, which is an increase of 12% year-on-year [6] - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has revised its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production down to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a 4.75-year low, which may lead sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol, thereby boosting sugar supplies [1] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with output from October 1 to December 15 rising by 28% year-on-year to 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production outlook is also bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, and Unica reporting a 1.1% year-on-year increase in cumulative sugar output to 39.904 MMT [3] - The proportion of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil increased to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [3] Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - ISO projects a 3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT for 2025-26, while Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up from 7.5 MMT [4] Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The ISMA has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, while reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [5] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects a 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in production to a five-year low of 26.1 MMT in 2024/25 [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined due to increased production in major producing countries, particularly India and Brazil, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -0.80 (-0.19%) [1] - Sugar prices have retreated to 3-week lows, influenced by a surge in production in India and Brazil [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million MT, with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 million MT, with a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through mid-November rose by +2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 million MT [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The robust global sugar supply outlook has pressured sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 million MT, reflecting a significant rise from previous estimates [5]

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are mixed, with March NY world sugar 11 up by 0.01 (+0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 down by 2.90 (-0.68%) [1] - Increased sugar production in India is limiting the upside potential for sugar prices, with Indian sugar production from October to November rising by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [1] Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production outlook is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of November increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) [2] - Cumulative Center-South sugar output through mid-November rose by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [2] India's Ethanol Policy - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more cane being diverted to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [3] Sugar Export Quotas - India's food ministry announced a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT [4] Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - ISO's forecast indicates a +3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [5] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Robust global sugar supplies have negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [6] - Czarnikow has increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased due to a weaker dollar and are consolidating below recent one-month highs, supported by India's potential increase in ethanol prices which may lead to reduced sugar supplies [2][3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 due to production issues [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and New York markets due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5][6] - Brazil's sugar production estimates for 2025/26 have been raised to 45 MMT, with significant year-on-year increases in sugar output and the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a slight increase on Friday after a week of significant losses, with NY sugar closing up by 0.52% and London sugar by 0.24% [1] - Brazil's sugar production is on the rise, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices, with a reported 18% year-on-year increase in sugar output for the second half of August [2][4] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although the projected deficit is improving compared to the previous year [6] Price Movements - NY world sugar 11 closed at +0.08 (+0.52%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed at +1.10 (+0.24%) [1] - Sugar prices have been in a downtrend over the past six months due to expectations of higher production in Brazil [4] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose to 3.872 million tons, an 18% increase year-on-year, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2] Market Dynamics - India's potential diversion of 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with sugar mills expected to export up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier estimates [3] - An excessively short position by funds in NY sugar futures could lead to gains during any short-covering rally, with net-short positions increasing significantly [5] Global Outlook - The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar production increase of 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while global consumption is expected to rise by 0.3% to 180.8 million tons [6]