Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices increased significantly, with May NY world sugar 11 closing up +2.77% and May London ICE white sugar 5 up +1.97% on Friday [1] - The rise in sugar prices is attributed to soaring crude oil prices, which surged over +12% to a 2.5-year high, potentially leading sugar mills to shift production from sugar to ethanol [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) revised its forecast for a sugar surplus in 2025-26 to +1.22 MMT, down from +1.63 MMT, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [3] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of January fell by -36% year-on-year to 5,000 MT, although cumulative production through January is up +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% in 2026/27 to 41.8 MMT, with exports projected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected to increase by +12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT, although the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production has been reduced [6]

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices have recently increased, with May NY world sugar 11 closing up by +0.02 (+0.14%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 closing up by +5.90 (+1.45%) due to rising crude oil prices, which may lead to a shift in production from sugar to ethanol [1] Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] International Sugar Organization (ISO) Projections - The ISO has revised its forecast for a sugar surplus in 2025-26 to +1.22 MMT, down from +1.63 MMT, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [3] Brazil's Sugar Production Trends - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South region fell by -36% year-on-year in the second half of January to only 5,000 MT, although cumulative production through January is up by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar increased to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25 [4] - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado projects Brazil's sugar production will decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27 from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] India's Sugar Production Insights - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported a +12% year-on-year increase in India's sugar output to 24.75 MMT for the period from October 1 to February 28 [6] - ISMA projects India's total sugar production for 2025/26 at 29.3 MMT, which is a +12% increase year-on-year but lower than the previous estimate of 30.95 MMT [6] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India has been reduced to 3.4 MMT from an earlier forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, reaching one-month highs, influenced by rising crude oil prices, which have reached an 8.25-month high, potentially leading to a shift in sugar production towards ethanol [1] - On February 12, sugar prices hit a 5.25-year low due to concerns over a persistent global sugar surplus, with analysts predicting a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) revised its forecast for the 2025-26 sugar surplus to +1.22 MMT, down from +1.63 MMT, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [3] Group 2: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of January fell by 36% year-on-year to 5,000 MT, although cumulative production for 2025-26 is up by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado forecasts a decline in Brazil's sugar production by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT for 2026/27, with exports expected to decrease by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected to increase by 12% year-on-year to 29.3 MMT, with a reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.23 (-1.54%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -4.90 (-1.15%). Sugar prices are sliding today amid ramped-up production in India.  On Monday, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. More News from Barchart Higher sugar production in Brazil is also bearish for prices after Unica reported last Tuesday that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to one-week lows due to increased production in Brazil and a negative outlook for global sugar supply, despite potential future reductions in Brazilian output. Group 1: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT) as reported by Unica [1] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil rose to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [1] - Covrig Analytics has raised its estimate for the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [2] Group 2: Future Sugar Supply Outlook - Safras & Mercado predicts a decrease in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26 [3] - Brazil's sugar exports for 2026/27 are expected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [3] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production for the 2025-26 season has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT from 9.54 MMT during the same period last year [4] - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.25 (+1.69%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +5.40 (+1.27%) due to recent strength in the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows last Friday on signs of stronger sugar output in India, with Indian sugar production for 2025-26 jumping 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT [2] - NY sugar matched a 2.5-month high on expectations of smaller future sugar supplies from Brazil, with consulting firm Safras & Mercado projecting a -3.91% decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 [4] Group 2: Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, while cutting its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT, potentially boosting sugar exports [2] - India's food ministry announced it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply glut [3] Group 3: Brazilian Sugar Production Outlook - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices due to record sugar output [5] - Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.02 (+0.14%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +1.90 (+0.45%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses today and are slightly higher as strength in the Brazilian real prompted some short covering in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 1-month high against the dollar today, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Last Friday, sugar prices fell to 2-week lows on signs of stronger sugar outp ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.42 (-2.75%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -8.60 (-1.98%) on Tuesday, indicating a decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows due to a rally in the dollar index [1] - Earlier in the month, sugar prices were pressured by expectations of higher sugar exports from India, as the government may permit additional exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [5] Group 2: Production Estimates - Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to decline by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [4] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.13 (-0.87%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -3.40 (-0.80%) on Tuesday [1] - Sugar prices retreated due to a slump in crude oil prices, with WTI crude sinking to a 4.75-year low, potentially prompting sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol [1] Production Estimates - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15 increased by +28% year-on-year to 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) according to the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT by Conab, with cumulative sugar output through November rising by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT [3] - The amount of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil increased to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [3] Global Sugar Surplus - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, reversing a previous deficit forecast [4] - ISO projected a +3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT for 2025-26 [4] - Czarnikow raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] Indian Sugar Production Impact - ISMA raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India was cut to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined due to expectations of increased sugar supplies from India and Brazil, with Indian sugar production rising significantly [2][3] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus in global sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by increased output in several countries [6] Group 1: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - As of November 30, 428 sugar mills in India were crushing cane, up from 376 the previous year [2] - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production estimate for the 2025/26 season was raised to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [3] - In the first half of November, Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-November increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [3] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, reversing a deficit from the previous year [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [6] - Recent adjustments in export quotas and production estimates reflect ongoing volatility in the sugar market [5][4]