March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.32 (-2.09%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -6.70 (-1.53%). Sugar prices today reverted to weakness, with NY sugar falling to a new 4.5-year low and London sugar falling to a new 4.25-year low.  Sugar prices on Thursday staged a temporary recovery when crude oil prices rallied on new US and EU oil sanctions on Russia.  Higher crude oil prices benefit ethanol prices and could prompt the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushin ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed down -0.14 (-0.92%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +1.10 (+0.25%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Wednesday, with NY sugar sliding to a new 4.5-year nearest-futures low. More News from Barchart Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past seven months, with London sugar posting a 4.25-year low on Tuesday due to signs of higher sugar output in Brazil.  Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil's Center-South sugar output ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, driven by increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries [2][4][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - The cumulative sugar output for Brazil's Center-South region for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [2] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [4] - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons for the 2025-26 season, further adding to global supply [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [3] - India's abundant monsoon rains have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, which may negatively impact sugar prices [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations, due to a potential surplus despite plans to divert some sugar for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -6.40 (-1.38%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content from Brazil's sugarcane crush [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, and London sugar reached a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, with monsoon rains reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil and increased global demand, particularly from Pakistan [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.10 (+0.61%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +0.50 (+0.11%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month high, and London sugar hit a 2-week high, driven by stronger global demand [2] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush saw a decline in sugar content, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton year-on-year, indicating lower sugar production [1] - In the first half of September, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, but cumulative output for 2025-26 fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, suggesting a potential bumper sugar crop [5]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Thursday closed up +0.27 (+1.67%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +5.90 (+1.30%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Thursday due to concerns over lower sugarcane yields in Brazil.  Unica reported Thursday that Brazil's Center South sugarcane crush in the first half of September was up +6.9% y/y to 46 MMT.  However, the sugar content in the cane declined, signaling lower sugar production as the sugar content in crushed cane dropped to 154.5 ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant decline, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.83% and December London ICE white sugar down 3.31% [1][2] Sugar Production Outlook - Thailand's sugar production is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contributing to downward pressure on sugar prices [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [5] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations rising from 2 MMT to 4 MMT [6] Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a 4.88 MMT deficit in 2024/25, with global production expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [7] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 MMT is projected for the upcoming 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a slight increase due to signs of stronger demand, with Pakistan booking 320,000 MT for delivery next month [1] - However, the overall market sentiment remains bearish due to expectations of abundant global supplies, leading to significant price declines in recent months [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - Brazil's sugar output has increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, contributing to the bearish outlook [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production may not alleviate the surplus, prompting increased exports [4] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% to 180.8 MMT [5] - The USDA anticipates a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks rising by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of abundant global supplies, with NY sugar reaching a 4.25-year low and London sugar a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend [2] Supply and Production - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, reaching 3.872 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region for 2025-26 through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [3] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for 2025/26, an increase of +4.7% year-on-year, with ending stocks at 41.188 million tons, up 7.5% year-on-year [6] Global Sugar Surplus and Deficit Projections - StoneX projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 million tons in 2024/25 [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Czarnikow projected a 7.5 million ton global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years [6] Impact of India’s Sugar Production - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of abundant global supplies, with NY sugar reaching a 4.25-year low and London sugar a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend [2] - Projections indicate a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, a significant shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] Group 2: Global Production and Consumption - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25, with production expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [5] - Global sugar consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Expectations of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, are contributing to bearish price sentiments [6] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 MMT [6] - Abundant monsoon rains in India, reported at 893.8 mm or 7% above normal, may lead to a bumper sugar crop, further impacting prices negatively [7]