Roundup | Chemical Distillate Lithium Run-Up to Start the Year; ICIS Outlook '26 on Value Chains Relevant to Commodity Chemicals 09 Jan 2026 14:39:14 ET CHEMICALCOMMENTARY Lithium prices have rallied to start the year, with lithium carbonate (battery-grade) prices rising ~14% YTD to ~$17k/t ex-VAT and lithium hydroxide prices rising ~19% YTD to ~$15k/t ex-VAT. ALB shares are up ~14% YTD on the bullish lithium sentiment even after a strong rally in 2H25. China's battery materials team notes downstream cathod ...

Analysts think the rally in gold, silver, and copper could soon sputter. Precious and industrial metals were up big in 2025, with silver up 150%. But some metals are showing signs of being overbought, and investor excitement is expected to fade. The searing run-up in precious metals might be capped this year. After a wild rally in precious and industrial metals in 2025, forecasters think investors' voracious appetite for gold, silver, and copper is about to wane, resulting in a tumble from current ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline of over 10% in 2025, with Brent crude oil on track for its longest consecutive annual losses in history due to supply exceeding demand amidst geopolitical tensions, increased tariffs, and OPEC+ production adjustments [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Brent crude oil is heading towards its longest stretch of annual losses ever, indicating a significant downturn in the oil market [1] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a supply surplus, which has been exacerbated by various global events [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The year 2025 has been characterized by wars and higher tariffs, contributing to the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market [1] - OPEC+ output adjustments and sanctions have also played a role in shaping the current oil supply landscape [1]

Group 1 - The demand for precious metals remains high among both investors and industrial buyers [1] - In contrast, the energy markets are experiencing an oversupply of crude oil, leading to decreased fuel prices [1]

That of course means it's time for Options Corner. Joining us right now, Rick Dat, our lead market technician to take a closer look at Micron Technology today on the heels of this new all-time high. So Rick, as we take a look at Micron, you know, no major headlines on this company, but we are coming off of a really good earnings report, even better guidance here.So we'd already seen this move to the upside. I know my opening question is usually how is Micron fairing against the broader market, but I I'm pre ...

The ongoing supply and demand imbalance is driving down container prices on U.S. trade routes, as ocean carriers deploy more ships in a soft market. Spot rates as of Dec. 11 from Asia to the U.S. West Coast fell 2%, or $33 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) in the latest week, to $1,861 per FEU, analyst Xeneta said in an update. Short-term pricing looks softer after a previous rebound. Rates are down month-on-month by approximately 22%, or $511 per FEU, from Nov. 11, “underlining how much pricing powe ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are projected to face significant declines over the next two years due to a structural imbalance between supply and demand, with a potential drop of up to 50% by the end of 2027 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil prices have decreased by 15% this year, with supply expected to grow at three times the rate of demand in 2026 [1][2]. - Demand has consistently exceeded expectations, but supply growth has outpaced demand gains by more than twofold, primarily driven by non-OPEC+ producers, especially in the Americas [3][4]. Price Forecast - Brent crude prices are anticipated to fall to the low $30s per barrel by the end of 2027, down from approximately $63.50 currently [3][5]. - Specific projections include Brent prices slipping below $60 in 2026 and averaging $42 in 2027, with a surplus expected to reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 [4][5]. Market Adjustments - While adjustments on both supply and demand sides are expected, the burden of rebalancing is likely to fall predominantly on supply [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call covered the materials sector in China, specifically focusing on lithium, copper, and steel industries [1][7]. Lithium Industry Insights - **Lithium Deficit**: A potential deficit of 50-60kt LCE is expected in 2026 due to stronger-than-anticipated demand from energy storage systems (ESS) [2]. - **Demand Growth**: ESS battery shipments are projected to grow by 50-80% YoY, while electric vehicle (EV) battery shipments may increase by 8-15% YoY [2]. - **Supply and Pricing**: Global lithium supply is estimated at 1.8-1.9 million tons, with demand reaching approximately 2 million tons. Industry players expect lithium prices to rise above Rmb100k/t [2][30]. Copper Industry Insights - **Copper Deficit**: The global copper deficit is anticipated to widen to around 500kt in 2026, influenced by three major accidents in 2025 [3]. - **Demand Trends**: China's copper demand is expected to grow by 5% in 2025 but slow to 2.5% in 2026 due to EV subsidy cuts. Power-related demand is projected to grow less than 1% [3][20]. - **Price Expectations**: The price outlook for copper is under pressure, with a tight supply expected moving into 2026 [17]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Margins**: Steel margins are under pressure, with 60% of industry participants currently operating at a loss. Production cuts are beginning due to weak earnings and seasonal demand [5][27]. - **Price Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to drop to around US$90/t in 2026, influenced by new supply from projects like Simandou [5][29]. - **Export Trends**: China's steel exports are expected to remain high, particularly to "Belt and Road" countries, despite challenges from the EU's lower import quotas [5][15]. Company-Specific Insights - **Baosteel**: Reported good Q3 2025 results driven by cost savings and increased auto sheet orders. However, steel gross profit per ton is narrowing due to high iron ore prices [10][11]. - **CMOC**: Guided for at least 760kt of copper production in 2026, with long-term expectations of reaching 800-1,000kt by 2028 [21]. Cobalt exports may be limited in Q4 2025 due to government regulations [23]. - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Expects lithium to be in deficit for 50-100kt LCE in 2026, with strong demand from ESS and electrification of vehicles [30]. The Goulamina project is expected to ship 500kt of spodumene concentrate in 2026 [31]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: Recent price increases have shifted Chinese buyers' price expectations from US$10k/t to US$12k/t [4]. - **Production Cuts**: Private steel mills in Tangshan have begun small production cuts due to environmental regulations and poor margins [26]. - **Future Demand**: Overall, China's domestic steel demand is expected to decline by 1-2% in 2026, but this may be offset by increased exports [28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the materials sector in China.

Core Insights - Gold has seen a significant increase in value, with a three-year rise of 150%, driven by geopolitical tensions and a shift away from the US dollar [2][3] - Central banks have been accumulating gold at record levels for three consecutive years, indicating a strong demand for gold as an inflation hedge [3] - The current strength of gold futures is at an all-time high, with projections suggesting a target price of $5,000, indicating potential for further increases [3] Gold vs. Silver - Silver has increased by approximately 80% year-to-date, while gold has risen by about 60%, highlighting the different dynamics affecting these precious metals [5] - The demand for tangible assets like gold remains strong, particularly among those who have not adopted cryptocurrencies, contributing to supply and demand imbalances [6]

Group 1: Current Oil Market Conditions - Energy markets are experiencing bearish sentiment with Brent crude trading at $69.45 per barrel, over $10 below this year's peak of approximately $81 per barrel, and WTI crude at $65.05 per barrel compared to a January peak of $78.71 per barrel [1] - Oil prices in 2025 are projected to be around $15 per barrel lower than the previous year due to oversupply fears from OPEC+ unwinding production cuts, sluggish global economic growth, and heightened trade tensions [1] - Wall Street analysts warn of a potential surplus in oil markets, with Goldman Sachs predicting an oversupply of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] Group 2: Contrasting Predictions - Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered predict that oil prices will rise in the coming year due to robust demand and economic stimulus measures [2] - StanChart acknowledges that U.S. supply has reached an all-time high but anticipates that producers will need to cut output due to low oil prices [3] Group 3: Demand and Geopolitical Factors - Expectations of weaker global demand in the final quarter of the year, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, may lead to economic stimulus measures in the U.S. and potential responses from China [3] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have resulted in increased crude exports from Russia, reaching a 16-month high of 3.62 million barrels per day in August [3] - Escalating tensions between Europe and Russia are likely to raise the risk premium for crude oil and natural gas [3]