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NETEASE INC(9999.HK)2Q25 PREVIEW:PROFIT TO BEAT;SUSTAINABLE PROFITABLE GROWTH IN 2025 AND HIGHLY EXPECTED NEW FRANCHISES IN 2026
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-09 02:16
Core View - Company is expected to report 2Q25 results in late August 2025, forecasting an 11% YoY topline growth and a 16% YoY increase in pure online game revenue, which is slightly below consensus estimates [1][3] - Anticipated strong performance in PC games with a 67% YoY growth to RMB7.6 billion, while mobile game revenue is expected to remain flat YoY at RMB14.8 billion [1][3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise 28% YoY to RMB10.0 billion, exceeding consensus by 4%, with a forecasted 20% YoY growth in adjusted profit for 2025 to RMB40.3 billion [1][2] Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2Q25 is modeled to increase by 11% YoY to RMB28.2 billion, which is 1% below consensus [3] - Pure online game revenue is expected to jump 16% YoY to RMB22.4 billion, also 2% below consensus [3] - Cash revenue is forecasted to grow 17% YoY to RMB20.6 billion [1][3] Game Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to experience a relatively light game pipeline in 2025, with key launches including "Marvel Mystic Mayhem" and "Supervive" [2] - Sustainable profitable growth is anticipated due to stable existing game franchises, channel optimizations, and a structural shift in game revenue mix [2] - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit margin (GPM) of 63.8% and an adjusted net profit margin (NPM) of 35.4%, both exceeding market expectations [3] Valuation and Target Price - The company maintains a BUY rating with an increased target price of US$150.0/HK$236.0, based on various valuation components including adjusted EPADS and stakes in Youdao and Cloud Music [4]