Summary of NetEase Inc. (NTES) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase Inc. (NTES) - **Market Cap**: $97.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $77.6 billion - **Industry**: Gaming, Entertainment & Healthcare Tech in China Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance**: NetEase's share price has increased by 74% year-to-date and 19% following the 2Q25 results, outperforming the broader Chinese Internet sector [1][12] 2. **Evergreen Titles**: The success of legacy games, particularly the Fantasy Westward Journey (FWJ), has driven better-than-expected sales growth, with FWJ's PC version reaching a record 3.15 million concurrent players, a 15% increase from three months ago [2][16] 3. **Market Strategy**: The removal of prepaid game cards and the introduction of a simplified gameplay version have lowered entry barriers, attracting new and returning players, especially among younger demographics [2][16] 4. **Future Growth**: Anticipated strong results in 2H25 from legacy titles and a favorable product cycle in 2026 with potential blockbusters like Sea of Remnants and Ananta [1][18] 5. **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for 2025E have been raised to RMB 115,857.2 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [4][30] 6. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS estimates for 2025E have been increased by 2-3% due to stronger game revenue growth and improved gross profit margins from higher-margin titles [18][30] 7. **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuation stands at 16-17X 12-month forward P/E, with target prices raised to $161 for NTES and HK$252 for 9999.HK [1][18] 8. **Marketing Efforts**: Proactive marketing strategies have contributed to the resurgence of Eggy Party, which is expected to show solid year-over-year growth [3][16] Additional Important Insights 1. **User Engagement**: The introduction of KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) livestreaming FWJ has expanded its audience, particularly among younger players [2][16] 2. **Deferred Revenue**: Deferred revenue (excluding Youdao) is expected to maintain a 20% year-over-year growth level for 2H25 [24] 3. **Competitive Position**: NetEase's defensive business model has allowed it to extend the Evergreen game franchise effectively, positioning it well for future growth despite a lack of new titles [16][18] 4. **Upcoming Events**: Key upcoming events include Ananta's update at the Tokyo Game Show and the first round of testing for Sea of Remnants, which is expected to launch in 2026 [17][18] Financial Highlights - **EBITDA Growth**: Projected EBITDA growth of 23.1% for 2025E [11][30] - **Dividend Payout**: Dividend payout ratio is expected to remain around 36.6% for 2025E [14][30] - **Cash Flow**: Anticipated free cash flow of RMB 41,926.7 million for 2025E [15][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding NetEase Inc. as discussed in the conference call, highlighting its strong market position, growth potential, and strategic initiatives.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Companies Involved**: NetEase, Bilibili, Kuaishou - **Industry**: China Digital Entertainment Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance**: China digital entertainment stocks have seen significant YTD performance with Kuaishou, NetEase, and Bilibili rising by +75%, +57%, and +30% respectively, compared to HSI's +27% [1][11] 2. **Downgrade Ratings**: NetEase and Bilibili have been downgraded from Overweight (OW) to Neutral due to less attractive risk-reward profiles after recent stock rallies [1][11] 3. **NetEase Earnings Outlook**: Limited earnings upside for NetEase is anticipated due to rising game promotion expenses and a lack of blockbuster game launches in the second half of 2025. The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 16x, with a projected EPS CAGR of 6% for 2026-2027 [1][11][26] 4. **Bilibili Revenue Growth**: Bilibili's revenue growth is expected to decelerate from over 20% in the first half of 2025 to 5% in the second half, primarily due to a high comparison base from mobile games [1][11] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests accumulating stocks with reasonable valuations (less than 20x P/E) and double-digit profit CAGR, favoring Kuaishou with a 14x P/E and 20% profit CAGR [1][11] Financial Forecasts and Changes 1. **NetEase Financials**: - Revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 113.54 billion, with an adjusted net income of RMB 39.87 billion [22] - Expected net profit growth to slow to -1% in Q4 2025 and -9% in Q1 2026 [11][26] 2. **Bilibili Financial Revisions**: - Net revenue for 2025 revised down by 1% to RMB 30.20 billion, with mobile games revenue down by 6% [5] - Advertising revenue forecasted to decline by 3% [5] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Conditions**: The digital entertainment sector is influenced by themes such as AI and the experience economy, which are seen as safer investments compared to e-commerce and local services [1] 2. **Competition and Regulation**: Increased competition in the gaming market and potential regulatory changes in China pose risks to revenue growth for both NetEase and Bilibili [11][15] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: NetEase's valuation is at a 20% discount to its five-year average P/E, reflecting a cautious outlook on its future performance [14][17] Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious outlook for NetEase and Bilibili amidst strong past performance, with concerns over rising costs and competition. The recommendation is to focus on companies with solid growth potential and reasonable valuations within the digital entertainment sector.

Core View - Company is expected to report 2Q25 results in late August 2025, forecasting an 11% YoY topline growth and a 16% YoY increase in pure online game revenue, which is slightly below consensus estimates [1][3] - Anticipated strong performance in PC games with a 67% YoY growth to RMB7.6 billion, while mobile game revenue is expected to remain flat YoY at RMB14.8 billion [1][3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise 28% YoY to RMB10.0 billion, exceeding consensus by 4%, with a forecasted 20% YoY growth in adjusted profit for 2025 to RMB40.3 billion [1][2] Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2Q25 is modeled to increase by 11% YoY to RMB28.2 billion, which is 1% below consensus [3] - Pure online game revenue is expected to jump 16% YoY to RMB22.4 billion, also 2% below consensus [3] - Cash revenue is forecasted to grow 17% YoY to RMB20.6 billion [1][3] Game Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to experience a relatively light game pipeline in 2025, with key launches including "Marvel Mystic Mayhem" and "Supervive" [2] - Sustainable profitable growth is anticipated due to stable existing game franchises, channel optimizations, and a structural shift in game revenue mix [2] - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit margin (GPM) of 63.8% and an adjusted net profit margin (NPM) of 35.4%, both exceeding market expectations [3] Valuation and Target Price - The company maintains a BUY rating with an increased target price of US$150.0/HK$236.0, based on various valuation components including adjusted EPADS and stakes in Youdao and Cloud Music [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on experience and learning-related services consumption names, recommending eight quality consumer services with an average forward P/E of 17x and 19% year-on-year sales growth [31]. Core Insights - Despite overall lackluster consumption trends in China post-reopening, selected "new consumption" stocks have significantly outperformed the MXCN index, with an average weighted index for Lunar New Year consumption rising by 21% compared to 10% for MXCN through June 12 [5][6]. - The ACGN sector has shown remarkable performance, with stocks like Pop Mart and Bloks rising by 155% and 94% respectively, while other sectors like Hainan travel/shopping and e-bikes lagged behind [5][6]. - The report highlights a structural shift in consumer behavior towards services over goods, with services consumption categories such as Transport & Communications and Education, Culture & Recreational Services growing at 15% and 18% year-on-year in 2023, compared to overall consumption growth of 9% [5][6]. - The report identifies nine experience and learning-related consumption names that are expected to benefit from favorable seasonal spending trends during the summer [5][31]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Trends - Two key trends identified are affordable treats, including ACGN goods and government-subsidized trade-ins, and experience-related consumption such as movies and travel [6][31]. - The report notes that leading affordable treats have outperformed year-to-date, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards smaller pleasures rather than big-ticket items [5][6]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Valuation levels for top new consumption names are now comparable to established global brands, with significant upside potential for future growth [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that the ability to surprise on future growth is crucial for maintaining valuations in the new consumption space [5][6]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on experience and learning-related services, which are expected to benefit from seasonal trends and a structural shift towards services consumption in China [31]. - Specific companies highlighted include Tencent, NetEase, Trip.com, and Kuaishou, which are positioned well for growth in the digital entertainment and travel sectors [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Bilibili, indicating a favorable outlook for these companies [8][9][10]. Core Insights - Content consumption in the gaming and entertainment sectors has shown resilience compared to goods and services year-to-date, creating a high entry barrier for new competitors, benefiting established players like Tencent and NetEase [2][3]. - The outlook for AI has been tempered by lower-than-expected capital expenditure and cloud revenue growth, but confidence is expected to return with improved user statistics and cloud growth acceleration [2][3]. - E-commerce remains highly competitive, with the 618 shopping festival seen as a pivotal moment for food delivery services, impacting the competitive landscape [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Preferences - The report favors sub-sectors with higher earnings visibility and less exposure to macroeconomic conditions, particularly online games, with Tencent expected to benefit from robust earnings growth driven by popular titles and new launches [3][8]. - NetEase is also highlighted for its recovery in mobile game growth and new game launches, while Alibaba is noted for potential cloud growth acceleration that could enhance its AI valuation [3][8]. - Bilibili has been upgraded due to improved margin outlook and resilient performance in games and advertising, while Kuaishou is recognized for its growth visibility in ads and attractive valuation [3][8]. Company Valuations - Tencent's target price is set at HKD630.00, reflecting a 22% upside from its current price of HKD515.00, with a PE ratio of 20.1x for 2025 [9][24]. - NetEase's target price is USD150.00, indicating a 17% upside from USD128.63, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Alibaba's target price is USD176.00, suggesting a 47% upside from USD119.96, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Kuaishou's target price is HKD75.00, representing a 38% upside from HKD54.50, with a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Bilibili's target price is USD22.50, indicating a 22% upside from USD18.48, with a PE ratio of 27.1x for 2025 [9][24].

Summary of NetEase Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase - **Industry**: Internet Services, specifically online gaming and related services in China - **Market Cap**: US$68.7 billion as of 14 May 2025 - **12-month Rating**: Buy with a price target of US$133.00 Key Financial Highlights - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: - Total revenues reached Rmb 28,829 million, a 7.4% year-over-year (YoY) growth, exceeding UBS estimates by 1.8% and consensus by 1.1% [2][10] - Core game revenue grew 15% YoY, significantly up from 5% YoY in Q4 2024, beating estimates by 5% [2][10] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - GPM was 64.1%, surpassing estimates by 340 basis points (bps) [10] - Game-related services GPM was 68.8%, indicating strong performance in this segment [10] - **Operating Income**: - GAAP operating income was Rmb 10,441 million, a 35% increase YoY, with an operating margin of 36.2% [10] - Non-GAAP operating income was Rmb 11,377 million, a 30% increase YoY, with a margin of 39.5% [10] - **Net Income**: - GAAP net income was Rmb 10,301 million, a 35.6% increase YoY, with a net margin of 35.7% [10] - Non-GAAP net income was Rmb 11,237 million, a 30.4% increase YoY, with a net margin of 39.0% [10] Strategic Insights - **Deferred Revenue**: - Deferred revenue grew 19% YoY, indicating potential for further growth in game revenue [3] - **Upcoming Titles**: - New game pipeline includes MARVEL Mystic Mayhem, Destiny: Rising, and Ananta, with Ananta expected to have the highest commercial potential [3] - **Shareholder Returns**: - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of approximately 30% of GAAP net profit, but no buybacks were executed in Q1, which may disappoint some investors [3] Market Outlook - **Guidance**: - Strong Q1 results are expected to lead to upward revisions in consensus estimates [4] - **Investor Sentiment**: - Initial positive reactions are anticipated from investors following the strong Q1 performance [5] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: - Regulatory and product risks, particularly the unpredictable nature of new game launches [13] - **Company-Specific Risks**: - Maturity of key game titles and limited diversification in revenue sources, particularly from MMORPGs [14] Valuation Metrics - **Forecast Stock Return**: - Expected price appreciation of 24.2% and a dividend yield of 2.4%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 26.6% [11] Conclusion NetEase's Q1 2025 results demonstrate strong growth in gaming revenue and profitability, supported by a solid pipeline of upcoming titles. However, the company faces industry-specific risks and challenges related to regulatory environments and product performance. The outlook remains positive, with expectations for upward revisions in earnings estimates.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, with a target price increase to USD 130 from USD 120, implying a 21.4% upside from the current share price of USD 107.11 [6][11][100] Core Insights - NetEase's recent earnings report showed a 25% beat in earnings, a 5% beat in game revenue, and an 11% beat in deferred revenue, leading to a revision of EPS growth to +18% year-on-year in 2025 [2][11] - The strong deferred revenue growth of 19% year-on-year indicates potential for accelerating game revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2][97] - Upcoming game launches, including Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny Rising, are anticipated to be key focus areas following the annual product launch event [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NetEase reported total revenue of RMB 28,829 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [91] - Online game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from titles such as Identity V, Where Winds Meet, and Marvel Rivals [94] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for games and related value-added services (VAS) was reported at 67%, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 11,393 million, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [91][94] Game Highlights - Mobile game revenue only fell by 4% year-on-year, outperforming consensus expectations of a 6% decline, thanks to strong performances from Identity V and Where Winds Meet [3][94] - PC game revenue saw an impressive growth of 85% year-on-year, significantly above the consensus estimate of 67%, driven by contributions from WWM PC and Blizzard titles [3][94] - The launch of Once Human mobile resulted in 6 million new users in its first week, boosting the PC version's revenue by 500% [3][94] Margin Discussions - The report notes an increase in games and related VAS gross profit margin quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a reduced focus on non-game businesses and a shift towards profitability [4][94] - The report anticipates that it will take a few quarters for sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to normalize [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides estimates for future financial performance, projecting revenue of RMB 116,721 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [98] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 12.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [7][14] Pipeline and Future Outlook - The report highlights key upcoming titles such as Ananta, expected to launch in 2026, which could significantly contribute to future revenue streams [2][90] - The successful return of Overwatch in China has set new records for peak concurrent users, indicating strong market demand for NetEase's offerings [94]