2Q25 preview: strong PC; flattish YoY mobile; profit beat. We model total revenue will hike 11% YoY to RMB28.2bn, -1% below consensus. We forecast pure online game revenue will jump 16% YoY to RMB22.4bn, -2% below consensus. PC game revenue will grow at 67% YoY to RMB7.6bn, continuously contributed by Marvel Rivals in overseas, domestic Blizzard games and Where Winds Meet PC domestically. Mobile game revenue will be flattish YoY at RMB14.8bn mainly affected by Justice Mobile being offset by Where Winds Meet ...

Global Markets Strategy 14 June 2025 Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Erin Zhang, CFA 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Equity Strategy China consumption: From Goods to Experiences While China's overall consumption trends have been lackluster since re-opening, shares of selected "new consumption" stocks have significantly outperformed the MXCN index YTD. An average weighted index consisting of stocks ...

China Internet Equities How to position for 2H25 China Emerging themes and observations: 1) Content consumption: Demand in the games and entertainment sub-sectors has been more resilient than goods and services y-t-d. Good content takes time and resources to curate, setting a high entry barrier for newcomers. This acts as a defensive earning buffer for top content providers like Tencent and NetEase. 2) AI outlook: Lower-than-expected capex and cloud revenue growth has dented the market's confidence about th ...

ab 15 May 2025 A: We expect upward consensus revisions given the strong Q1 bottom line beat. Q: How would we expect investors to react? First Read NetEase Q125 results quick take: Very solid Q1 with game revenue and margin beats Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: NetEase's Q125 was a beat on both revenue and margin, echoing our constructiveness into results. Q1 revenue grew 7.4% YoY, beat UBSe/consensus by 2/1%, respectively. The core game revenue growth accelerated notably to 15% YoY, up fr ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, with a target price increase to USD 130 from USD 120, implying a 21.4% upside from the current share price of USD 107.11 [6][11][100] Core Insights - NetEase's recent earnings report showed a 25% beat in earnings, a 5% beat in game revenue, and an 11% beat in deferred revenue, leading to a revision of EPS growth to +18% year-on-year in 2025 [2][11] - The strong deferred revenue growth of 19% year-on-year indicates potential for accelerating game revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2][97] - Upcoming game launches, including Marvel Mystic Mayhem and Destiny Rising, are anticipated to be key focus areas following the annual product launch event [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NetEase reported total revenue of RMB 28,829 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [91] - Online game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from titles such as Identity V, Where Winds Meet, and Marvel Rivals [94] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for games and related value-added services (VAS) was reported at 67%, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 11,393 million, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [91][94] Game Highlights - Mobile game revenue only fell by 4% year-on-year, outperforming consensus expectations of a 6% decline, thanks to strong performances from Identity V and Where Winds Meet [3][94] - PC game revenue saw an impressive growth of 85% year-on-year, significantly above the consensus estimate of 67%, driven by contributions from WWM PC and Blizzard titles [3][94] - The launch of Once Human mobile resulted in 6 million new users in its first week, boosting the PC version's revenue by 500% [3][94] Margin Discussions - The report notes an increase in games and related VAS gross profit margin quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a reduced focus on non-game businesses and a shift towards profitability [4][94] - The report anticipates that it will take a few quarters for sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to normalize [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides estimates for future financial performance, projecting revenue of RMB 116,721 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [98] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 12.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [7][14] Pipeline and Future Outlook - The report highlights key upcoming titles such as Ananta, expected to launch in 2026, which could significantly contribute to future revenue streams [2][90] - The successful return of Overwatch in China has set new records for peak concurrent users, indicating strong market demand for NetEase's offerings [94]