证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 业绩预告披露收尾，整体延续改善 ——转债月报 20260203 披露率与预喜率双增。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，上市公司业绩预告完成披露， 沪深两所共计 5091 家（剔除 2025 年及之后上市新股）中 2799 家完成披露， 披露率 54.98%，较 2024 年同比提升 1.83pct，其中创业板及科创板披露率均超 过 60%。按照预告披露的类型，整体预喜率为 36.87%，同比增加 4.46pct，其 中创业板预喜率为 37.38%，同比增长 7.14pct。 业绩修复特征显著。从净利润增速角度来看，采用已披露的上下限中间值作为 统计指标，全市场 2025 年归母净利润同比增速中位数为 20.29%，较 2024 年- 18.58%有显著改善。量价均为企业利润变化的关键动力，2025 年出口韧性保 持，工业增加值同比增 5.9%、高于 2024 年，同时 PPI 降幅开始收窄，上游涨 价逐步向下游传导，全年工业企业利润实现同比 0.6%正增，扭转自 2022 年以 来持续回落趋势。分板块来看，创业板净利润增速表现相对更为强劲，净利润 增速中枢为 26.5 ...

【市场回顾】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 上周五 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.33%，深成指 收涨 0.79%，创业板指收涨 0.63%。沪深两市成交额 30849.73 亿元。 申万行业方面，电力设备、有色金属、国防军工领涨，通信、银行、 煤炭领跌；概念板块方面，BC 电池、钙钛矿电池、TOPCON 电池概念 涨幅居前，玉米、同花顺出海 50、大豆概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒 生指数收涨 0.45%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.62%；海外方面，美国三大 指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.58%，标普 500 收涨 0.03%，纳指收涨 0.28%。 【重要新闻】 【北京市发布关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措 施】《北京市关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措施 （2026-2030 年）》提出，鼓励有能力的企业对卫星数据上下游企业 进行并购重组，整合完善地面站网、数据应用服务产业链环节，打造 具备全球竞争力的链主企业。支持 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13,165.99 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials, transportation, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while defense, beauty care, and machinery sectors lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.13%. In the overseas markets, the Dow Jones fell by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose by 0.72% [2][7] Important News - The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of these tariffs suspended for 90 days. Additionally, the tax rate on small packages from China has been reduced from 120% to 54% [3][8] - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of the end of April, with M2 balance growing by 8%. In the first four months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 1,006 billion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 1,634 billion yuan [3][8] Industry Analysis - The report highlights a new policy initiative from seven departments aimed at accelerating the establishment of a technology finance system to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation. This includes the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund and enhanced support for technology innovation through various financial mechanisms [9][10] - The policy aims to promote regional innovation practices and enhance financial services for national strategic technology forces, thereby accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies and facilitating the transformation of technological achievements into commercial applications [10][11] Cosmetics Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry has shown overall weak performance due to external factors and recovering consumer demand. However, some companies have achieved significant revenue and net profit growth due to strong product capabilities and flexible marketing strategies [12] - From January 1 to May 6, 2025, the cosmetics sector rose by 29.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 32.28 percentage points. Notable performers include Bawei Co., which led the OEM sector, and Ruifeng Co., which led the brand sector [12][13] - Financial performance varies across segments, with some companies like Proya and Marubi showing strong growth, while others face short-term pressure. The report emphasizes the importance of R&D investment and product quality in driving future growth [13]