Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth forecast for India is projected to be around 7% to 7.5% for the upcoming quarters, driven by factors such as GST cuts and strong retail demand [1][2][3] - The September GDP data is expected to show strong performance due to the positive impact of GST cuts, with manufacturers ramping up production quickly [2][3] Government Spending and Tax Revenue - There are concerns that consumer spending may soften in the March quarter as the initial boost from GST cuts subsides, particularly after the Diwali season [4] - The government is facing challenges with tax revenues, which have not been strong, leading to potential cuts in expenditure to balance the budget [4] US-India Trade Deal - The US-India trade deal negotiations are reportedly in an advanced state, with expectations that India has opened its non-food agricultural sector to US imports [6][7] - Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the trade deal on Indian farmers, but there is optimism regarding domestic reforms [5][6] Market Reactions - Markets have partially priced in a reduction of tariffs from 50% to around 25%, but a more significant positive reaction may require tariffs to be closer to 15% to 20% [7][8] - There is cautious optimism regarding the trade deal, with the understanding that unexpected shifts can occur [9][10]

Trade Deal Overview - The U.S. and Switzerland are nearing a trade deal to reduce tariffs imposed by President Trump from 39% to potentially 15% [1][2] - The reduction aims to align Swiss tariffs with those imposed on EU exports to the U.S. [2] Economic Impact - The high tariffs have negatively affected Swiss exports, particularly in key sectors such as watches, jewelry, machinery, chocolate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4] - Shares of Swiss companies, including Swatch Group and Richemont, saw an increase following news of the potential tariff reduction [4] Government Response - Swiss officials, including Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, are in regular contact with U.S. authorities regarding the ongoing discussions [3] - The Swiss economy ministry has refrained from commenting on the negotiations, indicating a cautious approach [3]

Core Insights - Despite challenges such as volatile auto tariffs and parts shortages, car manufacturers have shown surprising resilience in Q3 earnings results [1] General Motors Co. - GM reported Q3 earnings with EPS of $2.80, exceeding expectations by over 22%, and revenue 8% above projections [2] - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $9.75 to $10.50, aided by reduced tariff burdens [2] - Following the earnings release, GM shares surged 15%, reflecting strong market confidence [2][4] Ford Motor Co. - Ford's Q3 earnings revealed EPS of $0.45, nearly 22% above projections, with quarterly revenue surpassing $47 billion for the first time [5] - The company expects a reduced tariff burden of $1 billion for the full 2025 fiscal year, contributing to profit growth [5] - Ford shares have increased over 30% YTD, with a notable 10% rise in the last 30 days, although the stock is now considered overbought [7] Honda Motor Co. - Honda has faced tariff challenges but is benefiting from reduced exposure and a strengthening yen, leading to raised revenue guidance [8] - The stock trades at 11 times earnings with a 4.5% dividend yield, although it has remained flat over the past year [8][10] Toyota Motor Corp. - Toyota has seen production growth in the U.S. with over 11 million vehicles sold in fiscal 2025, benefiting from reduced tariffs [11] - The stock has recently broken above the 50-day SMA, indicating bullish momentum, and is trading above $200 per share for the first time since April 2024 [13] Stellantis N.V. - Stellantis has experienced a 6% YOY sales growth in North America for Q3, with significant increases in Chrysler and Ram model sales [14] - Despite being one of the worst-performing auto manufacturers YTD, the stock has shown signs of bullish momentum after breaking through the 50-day SMA [16]

Core Insights - The upcoming bilateral meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct. 30 at the APEC Summit has raised hopes for a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, which could significantly impact the healthcare sector and related ETFs [1][11]. Healthcare Sector Impact - The healthcare sector is heavily reliant on global supply chains, particularly from China, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions and tariff increases that raise input costs for medical devices and pharmaceuticals [3][5]. - Approximately 30% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) used in the U.S. healthcare system are sourced from China, with over 90% of generic sterile injectable drugs depending on APIs from either India or China [6]. - Nearly 99% of medical gloves and about 60% of syringes used in the U.S. are imported from China, highlighting the sector's dependence on Chinese manufacturing [7][8]. Financial Implications for Companies - Major pharmaceutical and medical device companies, such as Johnson & Johnson and GE HealthCare, have expressed concerns about the financial impact of U.S. tariffs, with JNJ anticipating $400 million in tariff-related costs and GE HealthCare expecting about $500 million in total tariff impact for the year [9][10]. - A reduction in tariffs resulting from the U.S.-China trade talks could lower supply-chain costs and alleviate uncertainty, which would be beneficial for healthcare ETFs [11]. ETFs to Watch - **Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)**: This fund has $36.93 billion in assets under management and charges 8 basis points in fees. Its top holdings include Eli Lilly (12.30%), Johnson & Johnson (8.74%), and AbbVie (7.60%) [13][14]. - **iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH)**: With net assets of $2.93 billion and a fee of 38 basis points, its top holdings are Eli Lilly (11.94%), Johnson & Johnson (8.41%), and AbbVie (7.34%) [15]. - **Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT)**: This fund has net assets worth $15.3 billion and charges 9 basis points in fees. Its top holdings include Eli Lilly (10.33%), AbbVie (5.76%), and United Healthcare (4.94%) [16].

Core Viewpoint - India's transition away from discounted Russian crude oil is expected to be compensated by potential reductions in US tariffs, which may facilitate a trade deal with the US [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Implications - A reduction in tariff rates below the ASEAN average of 19%-20% would enhance India's competitiveness in labor-intensive exports [2]. - The 25% punitive tariff on Russian oil purchases is anticipated to be lifted after November, while the reciprocal 25% tariff will remain until the end of the fiscal year in March [2]. Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India has imported approximately 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia this year, representing 36% of its total oil imports [6]. - Major Indian refiners are expected to reduce Russian oil imports to nearly zero following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The direct economic impact of switching from Russian oil is estimated to be around 0.04% of GDP, with a more significant indirect impact expected from rising global oil prices [4]. - A 10% increase in crude oil costs could raise inflation by about 30 basis points and reduce growth by approximately 15 basis points, assuming full pass-through to domestic prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - BMW has lowered its 2025 earnings guidance due to weaker-than-expected growth in China and the impact of US import tariffs [1][2][4] Group Performance - Year-to-date volume growth has been reported in Europe and the Americas, but deliveries in China have fallen short of internal targets, leading to reduced sales expectations for the Chinese market in Q4 [1][2] - The automotive EBIT margin for 2025 is now expected to be in the range of 5% to 6%, down from the previously guided 5% to 7% [3][4] Financial Projections - The revised return on capital employed (automotive) is projected at 8% to 10%, down from 9% to 13% [4] - Group earnings before tax are expected to decline slightly, contrary to previous forecasts of being on the same level as the previous year [4] - Free cash flow in the automotive segment for 2025 is now expected to be above €2.5 billion ($2.91 billion), down from a prior expectation of above €5 billion [5] External Factors - A significant reduction in commissions from local Chinese banks related to financial and insurance products will necessitate financial support to bolster dealer profitability [2] - BMW assumes that reimbursements of customs duties from American and German authorities, totaling a high three-digit million figure, will not be received in 2025 but only paid in 2026 [4] Future Outlook - BMW plans to publish full quarterly results and the adjusted outlook on 5 November 2025 in its Quarterly Statement to 30 September 2025 [6]