Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the president's trade policies on various stakeholders, highlighting both positive and negative effects on businesses and consumers [1] Group 1: Trade Policy Effects - Businesses express concerns over increased tariffs leading to higher costs of imported goods, which may affect pricing strategies and profit margins [1] - Consumers report experiencing higher prices for everyday products due to the trade policies, indicating a direct impact on household budgets [1] - Some industries, particularly manufacturing, are seeing a mixed impact, with certain sectors benefiting from reduced competition while others struggle with increased costs [1]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is deteriorating for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [1] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, with job losses occurring in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [2] Job Creation Trends - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a stark decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [3] - Job creation has slowed to an average of 38,600 jobs per month since the announcement of tariffs, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [3] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, particularly tariffs, is a significant factor in the slowdown, as businesses are hesitant to expand or hire without clarity on future costs [5] Technological Impact - The increasing adoption of AI in businesses may further impact the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new job opportunities may arise as a result [6] Immigration and Workforce Supply - The reduction in immigration due to policy changes has significantly decreased the number of available workers, exacerbating the challenges employers face in finding qualified staff [7] - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco projects that only 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, a drop from 2.2 million in 2024, which will further limit workforce growth [8] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty regarding whether the job market's issues stem from a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both, complicating the understanding of labor demand and supply dynamics [10] - The Federal Reserve's policy committee is considering the implications of falling labor demand on interest rates, which could lead to cuts aimed at boosting hiring, although the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [11]

Labor Market Trends - The labor market is currently unfavorable for both employers and job seekers, with job seekers facing fewer openings and longer unemployment durations, as evidenced by the long-term unemployment rate reaching its highest since November 2021 in September [2] - Employers are struggling to find qualified candidates, particularly in industries like homebuilding, leading to a significant slowdown in job creation, including job losses in two months of 2025, a first since the pandemic [3] Job Creation Forecast - Economists predict that the U.S. economy will add an average of only 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, a drastic decline from the pre-tariff average of 147,000 jobs per month [4] - Since the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, job creation has decreased to an average of 38,600 jobs per month, which is less than a quarter of the previous rate [4] Economic Implications - The slowdown in hiring and the rise in long-term unemployment indicate that both employers and workers are struggling to adapt to a new economic environment characterized by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs, and persistent skills mismatches, which is detrimental to the U.S. economy's health in 2026 [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led companies to reduce expansion and hiring plans, as they lack clarity on future costs [6] Impact of Technology - The increasing adoption of AI by businesses may further affect the workforce, with estimates suggesting that AI could replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs, although new career opportunities may arise as a result of technological advancements [7] - The combination of tariff-related uncertainty and AI adoption is likely contributing to the slow job growth forecasted for 2026 [8]

Economic Assessment - The U.S. economy has been given a "B-minus" grade by economist Justin Wolfers, indicating concerns over inconsistent trade policies and a significant decline in consumer morale [1][2] - Wolfers suggests that while the economy is "not terrible," the B-minus rating reflects a generous view amidst "grade inflation" in economic discourse [2] Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate has "drifted up" over the past year, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's targets, impacting household budgets [3] - The current budget deficit is characterized as "extremely large," which may be excessive for the current stage of the business cycle [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence is reported to be near an "all-time low," indicating a disconnect between economic growth figures and the reality of rising costs and job security [5][6] - The prevailing sentiment among consumers is described as "miserable," driven by economic pressures despite positive headline growth [6] Market Performance - Major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 have shown year-to-date increases of 1.74%, 1.31%, and 3.24%, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of a well-thought-out approach to global markets amid divergent central bank policies and volatility linked to trade policies [1] Group 2 - The author has a Master's in Banking & Finance and a diverse background in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, focusing on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets [2] - The author specializes in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis, with experience in private equity, asset management, and real estate [2] - The goal is to share insights and analysis with a global audience and engage in discussions for continuous improvement [2]

🎙️ President Trump's tariff war with China sent US firms scrambling to find new manufacturing hubs. India looked ideal, until the White House changed course.On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, how shifting trade policies are undermining India's push to become the world’s next factory. ⤵️ https://t.co/ghcFdtwxPn ...

Economic Impact - The euro area is withstanding Donald Trump's trade policies, according to Brussels officials [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reported an adjusted EBITDA of negative $144 million for Q3 2025, indicating continued operation within an extended cycle trough [3] - The lumber segment's adjusted EBITDA was negative $123 million, a significant decline from $15 million in Q2 2025, primarily due to lower pricing and a $67 million out-of-period duty expense [7] - Cash flow from operations was $58 million, with a net cash balance of $212 million, down from $310 million in the prior quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North America EWP segment posted negative $15 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, down from $68 million in Q2, driven by lower OSB pricing [7] - The pulp and paper segment reported negative $6 million in adjusted EBITDA, compared to negative $1 million in the previous quarter, largely due to an annual maintenance shutdown [8] - The Europe business generated $1 million in adjusted EBITDA, similar to the $2 million reported in Q2 2025 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts averaged 1.31 million units annually through August, reflecting stable but uninspiring levels of new home construction [4] - The company noted subdued demand in repair and remodeling, continuing a trend observed in previous quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, allowing for countercyclical investments and opportunistic growth [5][11] - Actions taken include the permanent removal of 820 million board feet of capacity, representing approximately 12% of the company's lumber capacity, to create a more resilient business [11][12] - The company plans to continue managing its asset portfolio prudently while remaining flexible in its operating strategy to meet customer needs [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's ability to navigate the challenging business environment, supported by a strong financial position [11] - The company is monitoring macroeconomic conditions and trade policies closely, indicating readiness to respond to changes in the market [15] - Despite a challenging year-to-year outlook, management remains optimistic about the longer-term prospects for the industry [16] Other Important Information - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced final CVD and ADD rates for AR6 at a combined rate of 26.5%, with West Fraser having the lowest duty rate in the Canadian industry [10] - A proclamation imposing Section 232 tariffs of 10% on imported softwood timber and lumber into the U.S. took effect on October 14, 2025 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Approach to managing production in lumber and North America OSB - Management highlighted actions taken early in the cycle, including mill closures and adjustments to shift configurations, to remain nimble in production management [18][19] Question: Implied Q4 operating rate for OSB - The implied operating rate for Q4 is expected to be around 80%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns during the weaker seasonal period [20][22] Question: M&A opportunities in the current down cycle - Management emphasized a quality-first approach to M&A, indicating that while there are opportunities, they remain selective and focused on enhancing the company's strength [23][24] Question: Federal support for the lumber industry - Management noted ongoing discussions with the government regarding support measures for the industry, although specific details were not provided [28][30] Question: Inventory levels in the U.S. channel - Management indicated that their inventory levels are intentionally lean, with customers purchasing as needed, but they do not have visibility into customer inventory levels [31][34] Question: Conditions in Canadian markets and competitor behavior - The Canadian market remains competitive, with no significant changes in demand or competitor behavior noted since the imposition of higher U.S. duties [46][47] Question: Capital expenditures outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that they will provide 2026 capital expenditure guidance in February, with a focus on operationalizing major projects completed in recent years [50] Question: State of the Caribou Pulp facility post-fire - The Caribou Pulp facility has been repaired and is back up and running, with positive signs of improvement in the European segment [51]

RT Bloomberg Live (@BloombergLive)The US retreat on climate and hard pivot to tariffs and trade policies is transforming risk and opportunity in the global climate economy. How must we navigate this new green economy?#BloombergGreen heads to Brazil for #COP30 November 4th.🌎https://t.co/5iD7g2J8hu https://t.co/jLLZIkoIYw ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has raised concerns about the potential threats posed by stablecoins to financial stability, urging for immediate policy action to address vulnerabilities in multi-issuer stablecoin models [1][3][4] Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - The stablecoin market has grown significantly over the past five years, now valued at over $300 billion, with dollar-backed tokens dominating the sector, particularly Tether's USDT, which holds more than 58% market share [2] - Euro-backed stablecoins represent a minimal portion of the market, accounting for only 0.15% of the global total [2] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns and Recommendations - The ESRB highlighted vulnerabilities in "third country multi-issuer" stablecoin models, where EU-regulated issuers must maintain reserves locally while non-EU partners manage identical tokens backed abroad, creating potential risks during financial stress [3][4] - A recommendation to ban such multi-issuer models was endorsed by the ESRB, which, while non-binding, pressures EU authorities to consider restrictions or alternative protections [4] Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - Lagarde has drawn parallels between the risks associated with stablecoins and past banking crises, emphasizing the need for strong equivalence regimes and safeguards for cross-border transfers to prevent destabilization [5] - The ESRB has noted that elevated global financial risks, driven by investor optimism and high asset valuations, leave markets vulnerable to potential reversals [5][6] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and changing trade policies are additional challenges impacting Europe's financial outlook, despite stress tests indicating resilience among European banks [6]