Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Index Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.09%.  The dollar is slightly higher today on better-than-expected US economic news on home prices and the Dec MNI Chicago PMI.  Also, higher T-note yields today have strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  Questions about the Fed's independence are limiting gains in the dollar after President Trump said Monday evening that he "still might" fire Fed Chair Powell.  Also, strength in the Chinese yuan is undercutting the dollar after the yuan rallied t ...

Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank projects the S&P 500 to reach 7500 by the end of 2026, anticipating US stocks to slightly outperform international stocks and a strengthening dollar [1] - The dollar is expected to stabilize, avoiding the significant weakness seen in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - While the dollar experienced weakness in 2025, it's still up 7% since 2021, representing an annualized increase of around 2% [5] - Deutsche Bank's 12-month outlook includes dollar yen at 145 [5] Economic Factors - The strength of the US economy and double-digit equity market returns are expected to attract fund flows, supporting the dollar [4] - A potential 20% year-over-year increase in tax refunds in the first half of the year could stimulate spending and market activity [9] - Non-residential fixed asset investment, particularly in AI data centers, is driving GDP growth [12] Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical risks, especially concerning oil, remain a factor to monitor, although the situation is perceived as potentially more stable in 2026 compared to 2025 [6] Political and Policy Impact - Midterm election years typically exhibit a pattern of positive market performance in the first and fourth quarters, with a lull in the second and third quarters [8] - The market's reaction to the Trump administration and GOP policies, particularly regarding the "K-shaped economy," will be crucial [7][11]

Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks are forecasting that the US dollar will resume its slide next year as the Federal Reserve keeps nudging down interest rates https://t.co/Q8kmKFK8jj ...

Inflation and Monetary Policy - The current affordability crisis in America is largely driven by inflation, resulting from a constantly expanding money supply in a debt-based economy, which erodes purchasing power [1] - Regardless of the political party in power, the quality of life for the average person continues to deteriorate due to increasing debt and the necessity to print more money [1] - The US government's continued money printing and weaponization of the dollar are prompting other countries to seek alternatives like gold, with Bitcoin potentially becoming a future alternative [15][16] - The traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not accurately reflect the true cost of living increases, as essential expenses like healthcare, housing, and groceries have risen significantly more than the reported 2% average annual inflation rate; monetary inflation, averaging around 7-8% annually, provides a more accurate picture [21] Bitcoin as a Solution - Bitcoin is presented as an accessible asset that can protect individuals from currency debasement and inflation, offering an asymmetric opportunity for ordinary families to front-run Wall Street [1][5] - Bitcoin empowers both store of value and medium of exchange functionalities, with the base layer serving as digital gold and secondary layers like the Lightning Network enabling faster payments [17] - Bitcoin's open, permissionless network allows anyone to use it, making institutional adoption inevitable and providing opportunities for average individuals [4] - Bitcoin is a politically neutral technology that empowers individuals to be their own bank and save in a system resistant to manipulation [19] Adoption and Market Dynamics - While gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the short term, Bitcoin is expected to outperform in the long run, having already outperformed most other assets over the past 5-10 years [1] - Nation states are increasingly buying gold as a debasement trade and to move away from the US dollar, but Bitcoin adoption by central banks is expected to be a slow process [9][11] - Stablecoins serve as a great on-ramp to crypto, but Bitcoin is the preferred asset for saving due to the depreciating nature of fiat currencies [17] - The increasing instances of debanking in the US highlight the benefits of Bitcoin as a tool for financial freedom, allowing individuals to transact without permission from intermediaries [18]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Hassett as the potential next Federal Reserve chair is influencing market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield reaching 4% for the first time in a month [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Traders are increasing their bets on lower interest rates over the next year, anticipating that Hassett will implement aggressive reductions in borrowing costs as advocated by President Trump [2]. - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by two basis points to 4%, marking the lowest level since the Fed's meeting in late October [2]. - Following the news of Hassett's potential appointment, the dollar fell to a session low before recovering some losses [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - The movement in Treasuries was prompted by data indicating labor-market weakness and a decline in oil prices [5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran supported the outlook for rate reductions, emphasizing the need for significant cuts in the US economy [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The addition of Hassett to the Fed board would result in two voting members advocating for proactive rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of 50 basis point moves in the post-Powell era [6][7]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is overseeing the search for Powell's replacement, with an announcement expected by December 25, and five candidates in consideration [7].

Core Insights - The dollar index fell from a 5.5-month high, closing down by -0.04% due to mixed economic signals from the US labor market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Labor Market Data - US September nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000, significantly surpassing expectations of +51,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1% to 4.4%, marking a nearly four-year high, which suggests some weakness in the labor market [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -8,000 to 220,000, better than the anticipated 227,000, reflecting a stronger labor market [2] - However, continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest in four years, indicating challenges for those laid off in finding new employment [2] Economic Indicators - The average hourly earnings in September remained unchanged from August at +3.8% year-over-year, which was stronger than the expected +3.7% [3] - The November Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by +11.1 to -1.7, but this was weaker than the expected +1.0 [3] - Existing home sales in October rose by +1.2% month-over-month to an 8-month high of 4.10 million, exceeding expectations of 4.08 million [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials were hawkish, indicating caution regarding interest rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [5] - Cleveland Fed President expressed that lowering interest rates could prolong elevated inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets [5] - Chicago Fed President noted that inflation appears stalled or possibly rising, which raises concerns about preemptively cutting interest rates [5] - Fed Governor highlighted concerns about inflation remaining around 3%, emphasizing the need for caution in considering further interest rate cuts [5]

Global Payments & Reserves - 50% of global payments are conducted in US dollars [1] - 60% of global reserves are US dollar-based [1] Trade Finance & FX - 80% of global trade is financed in US dollars [1] - Over 95% of foreign exchange (FX) transactions are done against US dollars [1]

🇺🇸 The US dollar is one of the strongest currencies of the past 100+ years.Yet it has lost 97% of its purchasing power since 1913. https://t.co/dGJPG4w4aw ...

It is the CNBC Invest in America Forum in Washington, D. C. happening right now.The events bringing together investors, policymakers and industry leaders for conversations about American industrial policy. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is about to speak to our Sara Eisen. Here it comes right now.Let's listen in. >> So thank you, America first. America first.There we go. So the investment boom I mean, it feels like every day we either get an Oval Office announcement from a CEO, some of whom are here t ...