ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 18 August 2025 First Read China Industrials Tracking trade flows amid changing US tariffs on China (week 33) Key highlights from high frequency data on trade flows We gather weekly data from UBS Evidence Lab, the Ministry of Transport and other third-party data providers to present the most recent trade flows after the US imposed high tariffs on China. We cover shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights and land transportation. Port volum ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Industrials** sector, particularly the impact of changing US tariffs on trade flows with China, covering shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2][40]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Port Volume Decline**: Container throughput at key ports in China fell by **9% week-over-week (WoW)** and **7% year-over-year (YoY)**, marking the first decline since March. However, combined throughput for weeks 30 and 31 showed a **2% YoY increase** [3][6]. 2. **US Port Import Volumes**: The Port of Los Angeles reported a **5% WoW** and **2% YoY** increase in import volumes for week 33, following a **6% YoY** increase in week 32 [3][9]. 3. **Shipping Rates**: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by **3% WoW**. Specifically, freight rates between China and the US dropped by **2%** and **7%** for the West Coast and East Coast, respectively, due to overcapacity pressures [4][12]. 4. **European Port Congestion**: Ongoing congestion at European ports, particularly in Antwerp and Hamburg, has led to longer waiting times for container pickup and delivery, with average waiting times for container ships over **8,000 TEU** increasing by **9% WoW** [5][26]. 5. **International Freight Flights**: The number of international freight flights increased by **9% YoY**, although it was down **2% WoW** last week [3][33]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Intra-Asia Supply Improvement**: There was a slight improvement in the Asia feeder ship availability index, which rebounded by **26% WoW** [4][14]. 2. **China Expressway Truck Traffic**: Truck traffic on expressways in China increased by **3% YoY** last week, indicating a potential uptick in domestic logistics activity [27]. 3. **Vietnam's Export Growth**: Vietnam's exports rose by **17% YoY** in the first half of July, showcasing strong trade performance amidst global uncertainties [18][20]. 4. **Direct Shipping Volumes**: Direct shipping volumes from China to ASEAN and the US showed a **22% increase** WoW, but a **15% decrease** YoY in week 31 [21][23]. Risks and Considerations - The macroeconomic environment poses risks to China's industrial sector, with potential demand shrinkage for industrial goods and import/export volumes if the economy remains weak. Additionally, the cancellation of preferential policies for high-tech companies could adversely affect earnings [40]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China Industrials sector and its implications for trade and shipping dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of changing US tariffs on trade flows with China, focusing on shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2] - Container throughput at key ports in China showed an acceleration, with a year-on-year increase of 11% compared to 6% in the previous week [3] - The spot container freight rate between China and the US increased significantly, with a 58% rise on the West Coast and 46% on the East Coast week-on-week [4] - Early signs of port congestion are noted in Europe due to strikes, tariffs, and climate change, with an 8% increase in global average waiting time for container ships over 8k TEU [5][28] - Import volume estimates at the Port of Los Angeles indicated a year-on-year decline of 2% in week 25, an improvement from a 12% decline in week 24 [8][2] Summary by Sections Trade Flows - The report tracks trade flows amid changing US tariffs, gathering data from various sources to present the latest trends [2] - The number of international freight flights rose by 21% year-on-year last week, indicating increased shipping activity [31] Port Activity - Container throughput at China's key ports increased by 11% year-on-year, while showing a slight week-on-week decline of 1% [6][7] - The average waiting time at the Port of Singapore increased by 9% week-on-week [19] Shipping Rates - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 31% week-on-week but showed a year-on-year decline of 32% [11] - Container ship newbuild prices remained flat, with a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [25] Freight and Transportation - Direct shipping volume from China to ASEAN decreased by 7% week-on-week, while shipping volume from China to the US increased by 7% [14] - China expressway truck traffic decreased by 4% year-on-year last week [26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision of the FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from previous estimates, reflecting a cautious outlook on the Chinese economy [4][9]. Core Insights - The key drivers for the strong 1Q growth of 5.4%Y were attributed to front-loaded government bond issuance for infrastructure and robust consumer goods sales [2][5]. - Real GDP growth is expected to slow significantly to below 4.5%Y in 2Q and below 4%Y from 3Q due to elevated US tariffs and their impact on domestic demand [3][9]. - The Chinese government is likely to accelerate the front-loading of a Rmb2 trillion NPC stimulus in 2Q, with potential supplementary fiscal packages in 2H25 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - 1Q GDP growth was reported at 5.4%Y, surpassing the consensus of 5.2%, driven by strong infrastructure and consumption policies [5][9]. - Industrial production showed a YoY increase of 7.7% in March, with manufacturing rising by 7.9% [6]. Export and Tariff Impact - Exports to the US are projected to decline by 50-70% in 2Q and 3Q due to ongoing tariff pressures, exacerbating domestic excess capacity and deflation [3][4]. - The GDP deflator decreased by 10bps to -0.8%Y, indicating deflationary pressures in the economy [2]. Policy Response - The Chinese government is expected to implement measures to boost consumption and address housing inventory issues, although these may only partially mitigate the effects of tariff shocks [4][9]. - A supplementary fiscal package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion is anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][9].