Core Viewpoint - Oil prices maintained most of their gains from the previous session as investors anticipated U.S.-China trade talks, hoping for a reduction in tensions affecting economic growth outlook [1] Group 1 - Oil prices showed resilience in early trading on Thursday, reflecting investor sentiment [1] - The market is closely monitoring U.S.-China trade discussions for potential impacts on economic conditions [1] - There is optimism among investors regarding the easing of tensions that could benefit economic growth [1]

About this content About Sean Mason Sean Mason is a Senior Journalist at Proactive, having researched and written about Canadian and US equities for 20 years. Sean graduated from the University of Toronto with a BA in history and economics and has also passed the Canadian Securities Course. He previously worked at Investors Digest of Canada, Stockhouse, and SmallCapPower.com. Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and action ...

Economic Impact - The US government shutdown is in its fourth week, affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and the September payroll report [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Mortgage Market - US MBA mortgage applications decreased by 0.3% for the week ending October 17, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 5.2% and refinancing up 4.0% [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 5 basis points to 6.37% from 6.42% [2] Trade Relations - Markets are focused on US-China trade talks, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by November 1 [3] - The Trump administration is considering broad export restrictions to China in response to China's rare earth export restrictions [4] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.53%, Dow Jones down 0.71%, and Nasdaq down 0.99% [6] - Chipmakers faced significant losses after Texas Instruments forecasted lower-than-expected Q4 revenue, while Netflix dropped over 9% after reporting weaker Q3 EPS [5][6] Earnings Season - The Q3 earnings season shows rising expectations, with 85% of S&P 500 companies that reported so far beating forecasts, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [7] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year [7] Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [8] - The yield on 10-year T-notes fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.949%, supported by strong demand for a recent Treasury auction [9] Corporate Movements - Texas Instruments and other chipmakers saw declines due to lower revenue forecasts, while Intuitive Surgical rose over 13% after increasing its growth forecast [5][16] - Netflix's Q3 EPS of $5.87 was below the consensus of $6.94, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [15] - Energy producers rallied as WTI crude oil prices rose over 2%, benefiting companies like Halliburton and Marathon Petroleum [18]

Market Overview - S&P and Nasdaq futures increased following the Senate's confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve board governor, coinciding with a record-setting day on Wall Street [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained mostly flat, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.3% [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran in a narrow 48-47 vote, positioning him to influence interest rate decisions during the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [2] - Miran's intention to take a leave of absence from his White House advisor role has raised concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially amid President Trump's efforts to dismiss Fed governor Lisa Cook [3] Stock Market Performance - On Monday, stocks rose, leading the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to achieve new record highs, driven by ongoing US-China trade talks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - Tesla's stock increased by 2% in premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk purchased shares for the first time since 2020, contributing to the stock's recovery from year-to-date losses [5] Economic Indicators - Investors are anticipating the latest retail sales figures, which will provide insights into consumer behavior amid persistent inflation and a fluctuating labor market [4] - There is a strong market expectation for a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96% probability assigned to this outcome [5]

Core Points - US stock futures increased following the Senate's confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve board governor, coinciding with a record-setting day on Wall Street [1][2] - The Senate confirmed Miran with a narrow 48-47 vote, positioning him to influence interest rate decisions during the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [2] - Miran's intention to take a leave of absence from his White House advisor role raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially amid President Trump's efforts to dismiss Fed governor Lisa Cook [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new highs during day trading, driven by positive sentiment from ongoing US-China trade talks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates is the main event of the week, with traders anticipating a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point cut due to labor market slowdowns [5] Economic Indicators - Investors are awaiting retail sales figures to gauge consumer performance amid persistent inflation and a fluctuating labor market [4] - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has led to a bullish outlook in the bond market, with US Treasurys outperforming global peers [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and its significance in the semiconductor industry, highlighting both potential growth opportunities and risks associated with its market position and external pressures [16]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - NVDA stock has fallen below resistance zone 1, indicating a potential gap-filling process [16] - The volume of NVDA stock has been persistently lower than in the past, suggesting that most investors who intended to buy have already done so, indicating a need for new investor demand triggers [16] - The next significant trigger for NVDA could be the wider adoption of its platform for robotics, which could position the company towards becoming an $8 trillion entity [16] Group 2: External Pressures and Industry Context - China is increasing pressure on the U.S. by using semiconductors as leverage, claiming that NVDA has violated its anti-competition laws [16] - An anti-discrimination probe and a dumping investigation into analog semiconductor companies have been launched, affecting companies like Texas Instruments Inc, Analog Devices Inc, and Microchip Technology Inc [16] - The article notes that the stock market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which could impact the broader market environment for companies like NVDA [16]

US-China Trade Talks & Agreements - US and China reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents, with in-depth and candid communication [1][2] - Markets are taking the US-China trade talks outcome with caution due to the lack of detail or a concrete agreement [3] - The focus is on the shipments of rare earth minerals and magnets being eased by China, with the US potentially easing export controls in a balanced way [5][13] - A US appeals court allowed President Trump to continue enforcing his global tariffs, potentially dampening the trade breakthrough [6] - The agreement aims to reduce temperature and continue talks, but distrust between the two sides remains a significant issue [8][21] - The US has never linked export controls with trade in this way, raising questions about the long-term implications and potential for future negotiations [30] Market & Investment Implications - Hong Kong equities are getting a bigger push from the US-China trade negotiations than US futures, with strategists believing there's more room to run for shares in the city [68] - Onshore and offshore Chinese shares are performing well, with the CSI 300 having its best day in about a month amid trade negotiations [69] - The MSCI China could be turbo-charged on the back of any improvement when it comes to data [72] - Foreign investors' buying of Indian stocks is turning positive for this quarter, signaling a potential extension of buying [73][74] India Wealth Management Industry - Massive wealth growth is coming from Tier one and Tier two cities in India, presenting a significant growth opportunity [76] - Technology platforms are critical to achieve scale in the retail customer segment, enabling digital onboarding and investment [80] - The private banking segment is growing exponentially due to IPOs, sales of India Inc, and generational shifts [81] - There is a growing interest from non-resident Indians (NRIs) in the Indian markets, with skilled individuals setting up outside India to get money into India [85][86] - Indian wealth management is shifting from a distribution-led model (58%) to an advisory model (14%), similar to the US market (2% distribution, 60% advisory) [98]