Key Takeaways from CEWC Readout — Cushion, Don't Lift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and policy direction for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Forecast**: The 2026 GDP forecast remains unchanged at **4.8% real** and approximately **4.1% nominal**. The emphasis is on "less deflation, not reflation" [5] - **Fiscal Policy**: The initial fiscal envelope is flat compared to 2025, with a front-loaded issuance strategy allowing for a potential **0.5 percentage point** GDP top-up midyear [5] - **Monetary Policy**: A dovish bias is indicated, with limited interest rate cuts expected in the range of **10–20 basis points** [5] - **Growth Drivers**: Public capital expenditure and urban renewal, along with advancements in AI and green transitions, are identified as key growth anchors. However, private capital expenditure remains weak [5] - **Housing Market**: There are plans for inventory buy-ups and mortgage subsidies, likely through reforms in the provident fund, though the specifics regarding scope, size, and duration are unclear [5] - **Anti-involution Measures**: A stronger push towards a unified national market, state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, and stricter subsidy regulations are noted, although execution challenges are anticipated [5] - **Policy Style**: The approach is characterized by cushioning rather than lifting, focusing on continuity rather than a pivot in policy [5] - **Supply and Demand Mix**: The current policy mix remains supply-centric with a slight nudge towards demand, emphasizing the need to "expand domestic demand + optimize supply" [5] - **Consumption Initiatives**: Ongoing goods trade-in programs and vague plans for service vouchers and social welfare support are highlighted, with a watch on developments in the second half of the year [5] - **2026 Outlook**: The year is expected to be a "slow burn" with small, reactive policy steps aimed at stabilizing activity and prices [5] - **Base Toolkit**: The toolkit includes front-loaded infrastructure investments via local government special bonds, housing guardrails with optional mortgage interest subsidies, and selective service consumption adjustments in the latter half of 2026 [5] - **Execution Watchpoints**: Key areas to monitor include the pace of fiscal issuance, design of mortgage subsidies, inventory purchase mechanisms, and progress on anti-involution and market unification efforts [5] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of execution in fiscal and monetary policies, indicating that the effectiveness of these measures will be critical in achieving the desired economic outcomes [5] - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism, with a focus on gradual improvements rather than aggressive policy shifts [5]

Core Insights - The report outlines ten key highlights for China's commercial sector in 2025, emphasizing growth driven by policy support, digital transformation, service consumption upgrades, and environmental sustainability [1][3][16]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is focused on creating a unified national market to enhance market efficiency and competitiveness, which includes streamlining trade systems and reducing regional barriers [34][60]. - Initiatives such as consumer goods trade-in programs are designed to stimulate demand and boost sales in relevant retail sectors [34][60]. Service Consumption - Service consumption is rapidly expanding, with innovations integrating commerce, culture, tourism, sports, and health, supported by government policies promoting a high-quality service industry [2][35]. - The rise of the "night economy" and cultural consumption is creating new opportunities for businesses to innovate their service offerings [35][36]. Digital Transformation - Digital technology is a key driver of service consumption, particularly in rural areas, with e-commerce platforms innovating shopping experiences through social and entertainment integrations [37][38]. - The use of digital technology in logistics and transactions is enhancing supply chain efficiency and transparency [37][38]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with businesses facing declining profits and high turnover rates, prompting strategic decisions to minimize losses and refocus resources [38][39]. - Companies are increasingly prioritizing online sales and delivery services to adapt to changing consumer preferences [38][39]. Global Expansion - Chinese enterprises are targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America for global expansion, necessitating effective localization strategies [40][41]. - Successful adaptation to local regulations and consumer behaviors is crucial for overcoming challenges in these markets [41]. County-Level Commerce - The growth of county-level markets, with an increasing number of counties achieving over 100 billion yuan in GDP, presents new opportunities for businesses as rural consumers seek quality products [42][43]. - Government support and improved infrastructure are making these markets more attractive for expansion [43]. Environmental Focus - There is a significant shift towards green and healthy consumption among Chinese consumers, with rising demand for high-quality, traceable, and pollution-free products [44][45]. - Brands that prioritize environmental sustainability and transparency in their supply chains are gaining consumer trust and loyalty [44][45].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's economic outlook and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030, following the 14th FYP's performance and targets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **14th FYP Performance**: Most targets of the 14th FYP are expected to be met by the end of 2025, except for the carbon emission intensity reduction goal, which is likely to be missed due to weaker nominal GDP growth [2][8][10] 2. **15th FYP Implicit GDP Growth Target**: The government is anticipated to set a slower implicit GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% for the 15th FYP, down from 5.0-5.5% in the previous plan [3][12][13] 3. **Long-term Economic Goals**: China aims to raise GDP per capita to approximately $14,000 by 2025 and double real GDP by 2035, necessitating a nominal GDP growth rate of 6-8% [3][13][14] 4. **High-Quality Growth**: The new FYP will prioritize high-quality growth driven by innovation, with R&D spending expected to grow at over 7% CAGR, increasing its share of GDP from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.2% by 2030 [4][19][20] 5. **Boosting Consumption**: The new FYP will emphasize boosting domestic consumption, aiming to increase the share of total consumption in GDP to 58-60% by 2030, up from 56.6% in 2024 [5][24][25] 6. **Investment in People**: The government plans to invest more in social safety nets and education, promoting people-centric urbanization and increasing fiscal spending on healthcare and social insurances [5][29] 7. **Decarbonization Goals**: China aims for a 25% share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption by 2030, up from 20% in 2024, despite challenges in meeting previous carbon intensity reduction targets [6][41][42] 8. **Fiscal Reform**: The new FYP is expected to accelerate fiscal reforms, including broadening the personal income tax base and addressing local government revenue mismatches [6][42] Additional Important Insights 1. **Challenges Ahead**: China faces significant challenges, including trade frictions, a property downturn, and aging demographics, which could hinder economic growth [9][10] 2. **Opening Up Strategy**: The new FYP is likely to further open China's service sector to foreign investment and support Chinese companies in expanding globally [6][36] 3. **Anti-Involution Campaign**: The government will likely intensify its anti-involution campaign, focusing on creating a unified national market and curbing irresponsible local government investments [30][31] 4. **Consumer Confidence**: Measures to boost household income and consumer confidence will be critical for achieving the consumption targets set in the new FYP [24][29] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call regarding China's economic strategy and the anticipated direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - **Industry**: US-China Trade Relations - **Companies**: TikTok, Nvidia, Chinese automotive manufacturers Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Progress in US-China Trade Talks**: A framework deal for TikTok has been reached, pending final approval from the Presidents of both countries, indicating constructive dialogue between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng [2][9] 2. **Broader Deal Potential**: There is an expectation for a broader trade agreement that may include investment agreements, especially if an in-person meeting occurs between Presidents Xi and Trump later this year [3][9] 3. **Contention Areas**: Despite progress, the US has added 32 entities to its export restriction list, with 23 being Chinese, leading to retaliatory actions from China, including investigations into US chip trade policies and Nvidia's alleged anti-monopoly violations [4][9] 4. **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50%, significantly affecting Chinese auto exports, which accounted for 322,000 units (7.7% of total car exports) from January to July [5][9] 5. **Anti-Involution Campaign**: China is focusing on reducing local government protectionism to foster fair competition, as outlined in President Xi's speech on building a unified national market [10][11] 6. **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: The Ministry of Finance plans to front-load local government bond quotas, potentially tapping into RMB2.8 trillion to improve cash flows for firms and settle government arrears [12][13] 7. **Services Consumption Plan**: A new plan has been unveiled to expand services consumption, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, with government funding and monetary support to facilitate this [16][9] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Activity Indicators**: Various operating rates in sectors such as semi-steel tyres, petroleum asphalt, and cement shipping have shown slight increases, indicating a potential recovery in industrial activity [17][20][22] 2. **Container Shipping Trends**: Container exports from China to the US have eased, while major ports' freight throughput remains above 2024 levels, suggesting mixed signals in trade dynamics [59][61] 3. **Price Trends**: Crude oil, steel rebar, cement, and glass prices have all edged down, reflecting broader trends in commodity markets [63][65][68] 4. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)**: Guangdong's FDI increased by 8.2% year-on-year, contrasting with a national decline of 13.4%, indicating regional economic resilience [82][84] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing developments in US-China trade relations, economic policies in China, and the implications for various industries.

Market Overview - Asian equities advanced as the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - The Hong Kong High Court allowed Evergrande's liquidators access to founder Xu Jiayin's $7.7 billion in assets amid ongoing restitution efforts from offshore bondholders [8] Chinese Policy Measures - Following President Xi's article on a "unified national market," the Ministry of Commerce and nine agencies introduced "Several Measures for Expanding Service Consumption" to boost domestic demand [3] - The measures include support for tourism, cultural activities, sporting events, and childcare subsidies, aiming to encourage consumers to "purchase in China" [4] Company Performance - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) rose by 4.09% and Meituan gained 3.03%, benefiting from the new consumption policies [4] - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) was the most heavily traded stock in Hong Kong, declining by 0.71% after announcing a $60 million investment in AI video generation startup Aishi Technology [5] - Tencent Holdings Limited (0700 HK) saw a slight increase of 0.23%, attributed to the success of its AI initiatives, with significant growth in daily average users of its AI assistant [6] Electric Vehicle Sector - Electric vehicle stocks performed well, with BYD Company Limited rising by 1.67%, Li Auto Inc. climbing by 2.61%, and CATL increasing by 2.58% [7] Market Dynamics - The rally in Chinese stocks may pose challenges for active managers who are underweight in this sector as quarter-end reporting approaches [9]