Key Takeaways What CEWC signals: Our take: December 11, 2025 12:25 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific CEWC Readout — Cushion, Don't Lift | M December 11, 2025 12:25 PM GMT | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited | Update | | --- | --- | --- | | China Economics Asia Pacific | Robin Xing | | | | Chief China Economist | | | CEWC Readout — Cushion, | Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com Jenny Zheng, CFA | +852 2848-6511 | | | Economist | | | Don't Lift | Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-4015 | | | Zhipeng Cai | | | ...

今天分享的是：2025年中国商业领域十大亮点 报告共计：52页 2025年中国商业领域核心趋势总结 由香港科技大学利丰供应链研究院与中国商业联合会专家委员会联合发布的报告，梳理了2025年中国商业领域的十大亮点及发 展态势。2024年，在中国政策支持与消费行为转变的双重驱动下，商业领域在数字化转型、服务消费升级、绿色可持续发展等 方面成效显著，2025年行业将持续保持增长活力。 政策层面，构建全国统一大市场成为重要方向，通过统一市场规则、优化流通体系、降低物流成本，推动要素与商品自由流 动，为市场注入效率红利。消费促进政策持续发力，消费品以旧换新等举措有效提振相关品类销售，2025年政策将更具针对 性，进一步释放消费潜力。 消费市场呈现多元升级态势。服务消费持续扩张，商业、文化、旅游、体育、健康等业态深度融合，夜间经济、文化消费等新 场景蓬勃发展，2024年前三季度服务零售额增速显著高于实物商品。县域商业成为新增长点，GDP超百亿的县域数量持续增 加，农村消费增速领跑城镇，品牌化、高品质产品需求上升，数字零售与现代物流加速渗透。绿色健康消费蔚然成风，消费者 对可追溯、无污染的生鲜产品及环保产品需求旺盛，推动行 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's economic outlook and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030, following the 14th FYP's performance and targets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **14th FYP Performance**: Most targets of the 14th FYP are expected to be met by the end of 2025, except for the carbon emission intensity reduction goal, which is likely to be missed due to weaker nominal GDP growth [2][8][10] 2. **15th FYP Implicit GDP Growth Target**: The government is anticipated to set a slower implicit GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% for the 15th FYP, down from 5.0-5.5% in the previous plan [3][12][13] 3. **Long-term Economic Goals**: China aims to raise GDP per capita to approximately $14,000 by 2025 and double real GDP by 2035, necessitating a nominal GDP growth rate of 6-8% [3][13][14] 4. **High-Quality Growth**: The new FYP will prioritize high-quality growth driven by innovation, with R&D spending expected to grow at over 7% CAGR, increasing its share of GDP from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.2% by 2030 [4][19][20] 5. **Boosting Consumption**: The new FYP will emphasize boosting domestic consumption, aiming to increase the share of total consumption in GDP to 58-60% by 2030, up from 56.6% in 2024 [5][24][25] 6. **Investment in People**: The government plans to invest more in social safety nets and education, promoting people-centric urbanization and increasing fiscal spending on healthcare and social insurances [5][29] 7. **Decarbonization Goals**: China aims for a 25% share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption by 2030, up from 20% in 2024, despite challenges in meeting previous carbon intensity reduction targets [6][41][42] 8. **Fiscal Reform**: The new FYP is expected to accelerate fiscal reforms, including broadening the personal income tax base and addressing local government revenue mismatches [6][42] Additional Important Insights 1. **Challenges Ahead**: China faces significant challenges, including trade frictions, a property downturn, and aging demographics, which could hinder economic growth [9][10] 2. **Opening Up Strategy**: The new FYP is likely to further open China's service sector to foreign investment and support Chinese companies in expanding globally [6][36] 3. **Anti-Involution Campaign**: The government will likely intensify its anti-involution campaign, focusing on creating a unified national market and curbing irresponsible local government investments [30][31] 4. **Consumer Confidence**: Measures to boost household income and consumer confidence will be critical for achieving the consumption targets set in the new FYP [24][29] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call regarding China's economic strategy and the anticipated direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - **Industry**: US-China Trade Relations - **Companies**: TikTok, Nvidia, Chinese automotive manufacturers Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Progress in US-China Trade Talks**: A framework deal for TikTok has been reached, pending final approval from the Presidents of both countries, indicating constructive dialogue between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng [2][9] 2. **Broader Deal Potential**: There is an expectation for a broader trade agreement that may include investment agreements, especially if an in-person meeting occurs between Presidents Xi and Trump later this year [3][9] 3. **Contention Areas**: Despite progress, the US has added 32 entities to its export restriction list, with 23 being Chinese, leading to retaliatory actions from China, including investigations into US chip trade policies and Nvidia's alleged anti-monopoly violations [4][9] 4. **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50%, significantly affecting Chinese auto exports, which accounted for 322,000 units (7.7% of total car exports) from January to July [5][9] 5. **Anti-Involution Campaign**: China is focusing on reducing local government protectionism to foster fair competition, as outlined in President Xi's speech on building a unified national market [10][11] 6. **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: The Ministry of Finance plans to front-load local government bond quotas, potentially tapping into RMB2.8 trillion to improve cash flows for firms and settle government arrears [12][13] 7. **Services Consumption Plan**: A new plan has been unveiled to expand services consumption, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, with government funding and monetary support to facilitate this [16][9] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Activity Indicators**: Various operating rates in sectors such as semi-steel tyres, petroleum asphalt, and cement shipping have shown slight increases, indicating a potential recovery in industrial activity [17][20][22] 2. **Container Shipping Trends**: Container exports from China to the US have eased, while major ports' freight throughput remains above 2024 levels, suggesting mixed signals in trade dynamics [59][61] 3. **Price Trends**: Crude oil, steel rebar, cement, and glass prices have all edged down, reflecting broader trends in commodity markets [63][65][68] 4. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)**: Guangdong's FDI increased by 8.2% year-on-year, contrasting with a national decline of 13.4%, indicating regional economic resilience [82][84] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing developments in US-China trade relations, economic policies in China, and the implications for various industries.

Market Overview - Asian equities advanced as the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - The Hong Kong High Court allowed Evergrande's liquidators access to founder Xu Jiayin's $7.7 billion in assets amid ongoing restitution efforts from offshore bondholders [8] Chinese Policy Measures - Following President Xi's article on a "unified national market," the Ministry of Commerce and nine agencies introduced "Several Measures for Expanding Service Consumption" to boost domestic demand [3] - The measures include support for tourism, cultural activities, sporting events, and childcare subsidies, aiming to encourage consumers to "purchase in China" [4] Company Performance - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) rose by 4.09% and Meituan gained 3.03%, benefiting from the new consumption policies [4] - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) was the most heavily traded stock in Hong Kong, declining by 0.71% after announcing a $60 million investment in AI video generation startup Aishi Technology [5] - Tencent Holdings Limited (0700 HK) saw a slight increase of 0.23%, attributed to the success of its AI initiatives, with significant growth in daily average users of its AI assistant [6] Electric Vehicle Sector - Electric vehicle stocks performed well, with BYD Company Limited rising by 1.67%, Li Auto Inc. climbing by 2.61%, and CATL increasing by 2.58% [7] Market Dynamics - The rally in Chinese stocks may pose challenges for active managers who are underweight in this sector as quarter-end reporting approaches [9]