Portillo's (NasdaqGS:PTLO) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 10:00 AM ET Speaker9Hello. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Portillo's fourth quarter 2025 conference call and webcast. I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Brandon, Vice President of Investor Relations at Portillo's, to begin.Speaker3Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Portillo's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. With me today are Mike Miles, Chairman of the Board and Principal Executi ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year of 2025, originations grew by 27%, leading to revenue growth of nearly 20%, and Adjusted EPS growth of 42% [9][11] - Fourth quarter revenue increased by 15% year-over-year to $839 million, with total company originations rising 32% to $2.3 billion [10][21] - The consolidated net charge-off ratio for the fourth quarter was 8.3%, down from the previous year, indicating improved credit performance [12][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Small business revenue grew by 34% year-over-year to $383 million, while consumer revenue increased by 3% to $446 million [11][22] - Small business originations rose 48% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth of 20% or more [14][22] - Consumer originations grew by 2% year-over-year to $613 million, with a notable acceleration in December [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in December, with real wage growth positive at 3.8% year-over-year [12] - Small businesses expressed optimism about future growth, with 94% projecting growth over the next 12 months [15] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.5 in December, indicating a favorable outlook for small businesses [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to close the acquisition of Grasshopper Bank, which is expected to simplify regulatory structures and expand market access [7][18] - The focus for 2026 includes generating sustainable and profitable growth while enhancing shareholder value [17][19] - The company aims to leverage its diversified product offerings and technology to navigate varying operating environments [17][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver consistent performance despite macroeconomic challenges [9][17] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates continued growth in originations and revenue, with expectations of adjusted EPS growth of at least 20% [33] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to market demands and maintaining strong credit performance [12][17] Other Important Information - The company ended the fourth quarter with approximately $1.1 billion in liquidity, providing financial flexibility for strategic objectives [29] - Marketing expenses for the fourth quarter were 23% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic investment to capture demand [11][26] - The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 20%, with expectations for a normalized annual rate in the mid-20% range [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the consumer business growth and impacts from tax season? - Management noted that consumer growth accelerated in December, with expectations for larger tax refunds potentially benefiting credit performance [35][38] Question: What changes are anticipated in the core portfolio prior to closing the Grasshopper acquisition? - Management indicated that operations would continue as usual until the transaction closes, with a focus on expanding the product set post-acquisition [39][42] Question: What is the expected mix of origination growth between consumer and small business? - Management expects a balanced growth approach, with a slight tilt towards small business due to strong demand [45][46] Question: Any changes in underwriting or industry focus for small businesses? - Management confirmed ongoing adjustments in credit underwriting, with stable performance across small business sectors [48][50] Question: What are the regulatory capital ratios post-Grasshopper acquisition? - Management expects to maintain a Tangible Capital Ratio around 17%-18%, with opportunities for capital return post-acquisition [53][56] Question: How might potential rate caps on credit cards affect the company? - Management views potential rate caps as a positive, as they could reduce availability for underserved consumers, positioning the company as an alternative [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year of 2025, originations grew 27%, leading to revenue growth of nearly 20%, and Adjusted EPS growth of 42% [10][22] - Fourth quarter revenue increased 15% year-over-year to $839 million, with adjusted EPS rising 33% to $3.46 per diluted share [12][34] - The consolidated net charge-off ratio for the fourth quarter was 8.3%, down from the previous year [13][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Small business revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $383 million, while consumer revenue increased 3% to $446 million [12][23] - Fourth quarter originations for small business increased 48% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth of 20% or more [14][23] - Consumer originations grew 2% year-over-year to $613 million, with a notable acceleration in December [25][40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The unemployment rate in the U.S. decreased to 4.4% in December, indicating a stable labor market [13] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.5 in December, reflecting positive sentiment among small business owners [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to close the acquisition of Grasshopper Bank, which is expected to enhance its operational model and expand market access [19][20] - The focus for 2026 includes generating sustainable and profitable growth while driving long-term shareholder value [18][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate varying operating environments, citing strong credit performance and a resilient business model [18][37] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates a 15% increase in originations, with adjusted EPS growth of at least 20% [36] Other Important Information - The company ended the fourth quarter with approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity, providing financial flexibility [32] - Marketing expenses for the fourth quarter were 23% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic investment to capture demand [12][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the consumer business growth and impacts from the upcoming tax season? - Management noted that consumer growth accelerated in December, with expectations for larger tax refunds potentially benefiting credit performance [40][42] Question: What changes are anticipated in the mix between consumer and small business originations? - Management expects a balanced growth approach, with small business continuing to grow at strong rates while consumer growth stabilizes [50][51] Question: How will the regulatory capital ratios change post-acquisition of Grasshopper Bank? - Management indicated that they expect to maintain a Tangible Capital Ratio around 17%-18% and will focus on investing in new opportunities post-acquisition [62][63] Question: What is the outlook for small business health and growth sustainability? - Management highlighted the stability of the small business credit profile and positive sentiment among small business owners, expecting continued strong growth [84]

Core Insights - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses with potential for long-term growth and significant terminal value generation [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding core business economics, including competitive advantages, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The goal is to generate long-term free cash flow and create shareholder value through fundamental research [1] Investment Strategy - The strategy targets sectors with strong secular tailwinds, indicating a preference for industries poised for growth [1] - The investor is self-educated and has been managing personal funds for 10 years, indicating a long-term commitment to investment [1] - The motivation for sharing insights is to provide value to readers and receive feedback from the investment community [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 FY 2026, Karooooo's ARR increased by 22% to ZAR 5,106 million, and on a U.S. dollar basis, it increased by 28% to $298 million [4][20] - Total revenue for Q3 increased by 22% to ZAR 1,410 million, with subscription revenue rising by 20% to ZAR 1,239 million [7][19] - Operating profit increased by 14% to ZAR 369 million, and earnings per share rose by 11% to ZAR 8.55 [19][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cartrack's subscription revenue grew by 20% to ZAR 1,236 million, accounting for 97% of its total revenue [20][21] - Karooooo Logistics' revenue reached ZAR 135 million, an increase of 24% [15][20] - Cartrack's operating profit margin was 28%, while Karooooo Logistics had a 7% operating profit margin [7][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - South Africa represented 72% of total Cartrack subscription revenue, with a subscription revenue growth of 21% [11][12] - Southeast Asia and the Middle East saw a 14% increase in subscription revenue, while Europe experienced a 24% increase [13][14][22] - The total subscriber count increased by 16% to approximately 2.6 million, with record net additions of 111,000 in Q3 [10][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen its leadership position in South Africa by increasing the adoption of video solutions and Cartrack Tag among existing customers [16][27] - Karooooo is focused on expanding its distribution capabilities in Asia and Europe, with a strong emphasis on capital allocation for organic growth and innovation [17][28] - The company is committed to maintaining strong unit economics and profitability while pursuing growth opportunities in under-penetrated markets [4][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market opportunity in South Africa, highlighting a long runway for subscription growth [12][13] - The company noted that the appreciation of the South African rand has created a currency translation headwind on reported revenue, but underlying operating momentum remains strong [25][26] - Management remains focused on long-term growth and shareholder value, prioritizing investments in sales capacity and customer acquisition [17][28] Other Important Information - The company reported a net cash position of ZAR 531 million and maintained healthy debtor collection days at 31 days [24] - Karooooo's LTV to CAC ratio remains above nine times, indicating strong retention and efficient distribution [5][11] - The company plans to return surplus capital to shareholders through dividends when growth opportunities are not available [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the headcount increase in Asia progressing? - The company is currently at around 40% of the targeted 70% increase, with many hires expected in January and February [30] Question: When will the investment in sales and marketing stabilize? - The stabilization will depend on the efficiency of sales and marketing strategies, with plans to continue increasing investment given the large addressable market [31] Question: How far along is the cross-selling of Tag and video in South Africa? - The company is in the early stages of cross-selling and expects stronger momentum in the next financial year [32] Question: What drove the strong pickup in South Africa subscriber growth? - Subscriber growth is in accordance with the plan, driven by increased footprint and execution capabilities [36] Question: How does the Volkswagen OEM integration impact European growth? - The integration allows for quicker vehicle onboarding to the platform, although operational issues with OEM telemetry devices remain [40]

Core Insights - Safe and Green Development Corporation has successfully implemented a 25% price increase on its recurring weekly compost purchase orders at its Myakka, Florida facility, which was accepted by a high-volume customer without any reduction in order volume [1][2] Pricing Strategy - The pricing adjustment reflects strong underlying demand for the Company's compost products and demonstrates increasing pricing power across its materials processing platform, contributing directly to gross revenue and supporting improved unit economics [2][4] Operational Enhancements - The higher pricing aligns with the Company's broader operational strategy, which includes ongoing enhancements to improve throughput, material consistency, and reliability, supported by the deployment of new equipment and the planned integration of the Microtec mill [3][4] Transparency Initiatives - The Company plans to publish a monthly third-party inventory flyover report of its Myakka site to enhance shareholder transparency regarding day-to-day operations and inventory activity [5] Company Overview - Safe and Green Development Corporation focuses on real estate development and environmental solutions, primarily acquiring and investing in properties intended for future development into green housing projects [6][7] Subsidiary Operations - The Company wholly owns Resource Group US Holdings LLC, which operates an 80+ acre organics processing facility in Florida, processing source-separated green waste and expanding into sustainable, high-margin potting media and soil substrates [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide sales grew by 13%, exceeding $5 billion on a trailing 12-month basis [5] - Total revenue increased by 8.1% to $175.7 million compared to the prior year [23] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $63.6 million in Q3, marking a 19% year-over-year increase [25] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose by 15.6% to $1.09 [25] - Domestic average unit volumes (AUVs) are now at $2.1 million, with cash-on-cash returns exceeding 70% [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 369 net new restaurants in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a 19% unit growth rate [5][22] - Company-owned restaurants delivered same-store sales growth of 3.8%, outperforming the broader system [23] - The new kitchen operating platform, Wingstop Smart Kitchen, is live in over 2,000 restaurants, showing a 50% reduction in service speed [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales declined by 5.6% in Q3, attributed to broader industry trends affecting various consumer demographics [7][23] - The company is experiencing record demand for new development, with over 70 unique brand partners opening restaurants in more than 100 different markets [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand to over 10,000 restaurants globally, with a mid-teens unit growth rate expected for 2026 [17][29] - Strategic investments include the rollout of the Wingstop Smart Kitchen, a new marketing campaign, and the launch of a loyalty program named Club Wingstop [10][13][15] - The marketing campaign targets a broader consumer base, aiming to increase brand awareness and consideration from 2% to 20% in the core demand space [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges near-term challenges but remains confident in the brand's fundamentals and long-term growth strategies [7][27] - The company expects to return to same-store sales growth in 2026, supported by the new kitchen platform and loyalty program [27][36] - Management emphasizes the importance of protecting unit economics while navigating the current consumer environment [50][63] Other Important Information - The company has raised nearly $3.5 million for St. Jude Children's Research Hospital as part of its community engagement efforts [18] - A quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share will be paid on December 12, 2025, reflecting the company's strong pre-capex position [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comp outlook for Q4 - Management acknowledges near-term choppiness but sees stabilization in trends as Q4 progresses [32] Question: Path to positive comps in 2026 - Management cites the impact of the Smart Kitchen rollout, loyalty program, and new advertising campaign as key drivers for returning to positive comps [34][36] Question: Incrementality of Smart Kitchen - Management believes the new operating standard will enhance guest satisfaction and drive sales as more restaurants adopt the Smart Kitchen [39] Question: Cannibalization impact - Cannibalization has been minimal, typically around 1% in comps, with recent openings performing well above system averages [42][44] Question: Value proposition and promotions - Management focuses on maintaining strong unit economics and does not feel pressured to engage in heavy discounting [50] Question: Awareness and brand health - There remains a significant gap in brand awareness compared to larger QSR brands, presenting an opportunity for growth [73] Question: New ad campaign testing - Early feedback on the new campaign has been positive, indicating it resonates well with consumers [77] Question: Expansion in India - The company has finalized an agreement for expansion in India, targeting over 1,000 restaurants with a proven operator [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenue increased by 16% year-over-year to $803 million, driven by a 20% year-over-year growth in combined loan and finance receivables to a record $4.5 billion [6][16][18] - Adjusted EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $3.36 per diluted share, reflecting strong growth and efficient marketing [24][26] - The consolidated net charge-off ratio for the quarter was 8.5%, compared to 8.1% last quarter and 8.4% in Q3 of the previous year [7][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Small business revenue increased by 29% year-over-year to $348 million, with originations rising 31% year-over-year to nearly $1.4 billion [11][17] - Consumer revenue grew by 8% year-over-year to $443 million, with originations increasing by 4% year-over-year to $590 million [17][20] - Small business products represented 66% of the total portfolio, while consumer products accounted for 34% [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The job market remains healthy, with unemployment rates at 4.3% as of August, and wage growth outpacing inflation for target customers [7][8] - Small business sentiment reached a new high in Q3, with the MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index climbing to 72, up from 65.2 last quarter [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue its focused growth strategy while adapting and innovating to meet customer needs and drive shareholder value [13][14] - The diversified portfolio allows the company to allocate resources towards the strongest opportunities and moderate exposure where risks are elevated [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong credit metrics and a stable operating environment [13][19] - The company expects total revenue for Q4 2025 to be 10% to 15% higher than Q4 2024, with adjusted EPS anticipated to be 20% to 25% higher than the same period last year [29] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $1.2 billion of liquidity, including $366 million in cash and marketable securities [24][25] - The cost of funds declined to 8.6%, nearly 100 basis points lower than Q3 2024, due to lower short-term interest rates [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on capital actions and stock valuation - Management indicated that all options are on the table regarding capital actions, including buybacks and dividends, as the company has excess capital [32][33] Question: Marketing expenses and efficiency - Management noted that marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue have been below guidance, attributing this to improved efficiency and a confluence of events [34][35] Question: Growth outlook for consumer and small business segments - Management expects a re-acceleration in consumer line of credit originations in Q4, following a slight decline in Q3 due to intentional credit tightening [38][39] Question: Credit trends and potential deterioration - Management reported strong credit metrics across both SMB and consumer segments, with no significant areas of concern [44][45] Question: Competitive dynamics and market share - Management highlighted that banks remain conservative, creating opportunities for the company to capture market share in both SMB and consumer lending [46][47] Question: Interest expense and capital markets - Management expects lower benchmark rates to provide a tailwind for reducing interest expenses, which could positively impact EPS [54][55] Question: Near-term strategies amid stable trends - Management emphasized that current trends are stable, with no significant changes expected in customer behavior or prepayment rates [58][59] Question: Impact of tax law changes on consumers - Management anticipates that higher tax refunds next year could positively impact credit, with no significant issues expected from recent tax changes [62][63]

Summary of Portillo's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Portillo's - **Industry**: Restaurant and Food Distribution Key Points and Arguments Same-Store Sales and Traffic - Portillo's has revised its same-store sales outlook due to a challenging restaurant environment, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and a slowdown in traffic [3][4][5] - The management emphasizes the importance of operational excellence and a strong value proposition to drive traffic [4][5] Financial Guidance and Unit Openings - The company lowered its guidance for the full year, reflecting a decline in top-line performance [6][7] - The number of new restaurant openings has been reduced from 12 to 8 for the year, with 6 additional locations under construction [7][21] - For 2026, Portillo's plans to open 8 new restaurants, with a focus on improving unit economics [7][22] Strategic Board Additions - New board members, including Jack Hartung and Gene Lee, are contributing to the company's strategic reset and operational improvements [9] Value Proposition in Chicagoland - Portillo's believes its value proposition in Chicagoland is strong, particularly in quality and quantity, but acknowledges the need to reassess pricing strategies [11][12] Simplifying Operations - The company is discontinuing breakfast offerings to focus on core lunch and dinner traffic, alongside eliminating 18 to 20 other internal projects that do not drive transactions [19][18] Development Strategy - Portillo's is shifting its development strategy to ensure better unit economics, with a focus on reducing build costs for new restaurants [21][22][30] - The company is exploring financing options to lower capital burdens and improve cash-on-cash returns [30][31] Marketing and Brand Awareness - A new Chief Marketing Officer, Denise, has been hired to enhance brand communication and awareness, particularly in Texas [35][39] - Portillo's is actively engaging in grassroots marketing efforts in Texas, including food sampling and community involvement [39][40] Kiosk Deployment - The kiosk initiative has been successful, with ongoing improvements to enhance customer interaction [46] Supply Chain Management - Portillo's is managing commodity inflation effectively, particularly in beef, and is about 90% locked on beef lots for 2025 [47][49] Closing Remarks - The management reiterates a strong focus on driving traffic and achieving best-in-class unit-level economics, while also emphasizing the importance of eliminating non-essential projects [51] Additional Important Content - The company is optimistic about its cash flow generation and views the current phase as a reset rather than a decline [51] - Portillo's is exploring new restaurant formats, including inline locations, to adapt to changing market dynamics [24][25]

AI Adoption in Enterprises - Enterprises' adoption of AI is crucial for realizing AI's full potential and impact [2] - Enterprises initially experiment with OpenAI and Anthropic models, often deploying them on Azure or AWS for security and privacy [7] - In 2023, enterprises were "toying around" with AI, but by 2024, 40-50% had production use cases built on closed models [9][10] Challenges with Closed Models - Vendor lock-in is not a primary concern for enterprises due to the increasing number of interoperable models [12][13] - Ballooning costs, especially with agentic use cases involving potentially 50 inference calls per user action, are becoming a significant concern [20] - Enterprises are seeking differentiation at the AI level, not just at the workflow or application level, leading them to consider in-house solutions [21] Reasons for Open Source Model Adoption - Frontier models may not be the right tool for specific use cases, such as medical document extraction, where enterprises can leverage their labeled data to build better models [16][17] - Generic API-based models may not suffice for tasks requiring low latency, such as AI voices or AI phone calls [18] - Enterprises aim to reduce costs and improve unit economics by running models themselves and controlling pricing [20][21] Inference Infrastructure Challenges - Optimizing models for latency requires both model-level and infrastructure-level optimizations, such as speculative decoding techniques like Eagle 3 [23][24][25][26] - Guaranteeing high availability (four nines) for mission-critical inference requires robust infrastructure to handle hardware failures and VLM crashes [27][28] - Scaling up quickly to handle traffic bursts is challenging, with some enterprises experiencing delays of up to eight minutes to bring up a new replica of a model [29]