alexsl/iStock via Getty ImagesPerformance and net asset value Quarterly return†: 1.63% | Rolling 12 months† : 19.28% | NET ASSET VALUE PER UNIT AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2025† : $1.3335 | Two years pa†: 17.44% | Inception†: 39.94% (not per annum) † after all ongoing and performance fees. Andrew Brown is making two presentations at the Passive Investor Event in Dallas, TX hosted by Financial Journey and Keith Blackborg on October 23rd & 24th passiveinvestorevent.com The Dynasty Trust NAV increased by a modest 1.6 ...

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has experienced a significant stock decline of 32% in 2023, underperforming the S&P 500, which has risen by 9% due to lowered sales and earnings forecasts linked to decreased demand for its beers among the Hispanic community in the U.S. [2][3] Financial Performance - Constellation Brands' revenues have decreased significantly in recent years, with a 0.5% decline from $10 billion over the last 12 months, contrasting with a 5.1% growth for the S&P 500 [6] - The company holds a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.7 compared to 3.3 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 12.9 versus 21.0 for the S&P 500 [6] - Operating income over the last four quarters amounted to $3.2 billion, with an operating margin of 31.7%, while net income registered at -$442 million, indicating a net income margin of -4.4% [12] Profitability and Financial Stability - Profit margins for Constellation Brands are approximately at the median level for companies within the Trefis coverage universe, but the balance sheet appears fragile [7][8] - The company has a debt of $12 billion against a market capitalization of $27 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 43.2%, which is higher than the S&P 500's 20.5% [12] Resilience in Downturns - STZ stock has shown slightly worse performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, indicating moderate resilience [9][10] - The overall assessment of Constellation Brands across key performance indicators shows weaknesses, reflected in its current low valuation, with growth rated as very weak, profitability as moderate, financial stability as weak, and downturn resilience as moderate [13]

Core Insights - Crocs, Inc. (CROX) is experiencing a challenging environment due to trade and tariff uncertainties, with expected earnings to decline by 2.5% this year [1][7]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Crocs reported earnings of $4.23, beating the Zacks Consensus by $0.22, with revenue rising 3.4% to $1.15 billion [2]. - The gross margin increased by 30 basis points to 61.7%, while the flagship Crocs brand revenue rose 5% to $960 million [3]. - North America revenue fell by 6.5% to $457 million, but international revenue surged by 18.1% to $502 million [3]. Brand Performance - The HEYDUDE brand saw a revenue decline of 3.9% to $190 million [3]. - Direct-to-consumer revenue grew by 4%, while wholesale revenue increased by 2.8% [2]. Debt and Share Repurchase - Crocs repaid $105 million in debt during the quarter and continued its share repurchase program, buying 1.3 million shares for $133 million [4]. Future Guidance - Crocs has refrained from providing full-year guidance due to trade uncertainties but expects Q3 2025 revenue to decline between 9% to 11% compared to Q3 2024 [5]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts have cut earnings estimates for 2025 to $12.84 from $12.87, reflecting a 2.5% decline from last year's earnings of $13.17 [6]. - For 2026, earnings growth is still anticipated to rise by 4.2% to $13.37 despite one estimate cut [6]. Valuation Concerns - Crocs is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 5.9, which is considered very low, raising concerns about being a potential value trap [7][11].

Group 1 - The article focuses on evaluating the preferred shares of Merchants Bancorp (NASDAQ: MBIN) to determine their suitability for investment portfolios [1] - It invites active investors to join a free trial and engage in discussions with experienced traders and investors [1] Group 2 - No specific financial data or performance metrics regarding Merchants Bancorp's preferred shares are provided in the content [1]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Market Overview & Valuation - The market has been volatile due to trade talks, but the S&P 500 is still overvalued by approximately 16% based on GuruFocus's valuation [1] - A potential market decline of around 20% from its peak would bring the market to GuruFocus's estimated fair value [1] - Insider buying activity, as indicated by the buy-sell ratio, remains below average, suggesting insiders are not yet enthusiastic about the market [1] GuruFocus Features & Tools - GuruFocus offers a dark mode for improved chart visibility, accessible via a Moon and Sun icon [1] - GuruFocus has added a demo center to guide users on how to use features like the All-in-One Screener, including creating custom filters and backtesting [2] - GuruFocus is developing a portfolio report feature that allows users to create customized reports with drag-and-drop functionality, suitable for professional use [2] Stock Analysis & GF Score - Lulu Lemon has a high GF Score of 99 out of 100, based on financial strength, growth, profitability, valuation, and momentum, with growth and profitability having the highest weighting [3] - TRIMD (Teekay Tankers Ltd) is considered a cyclical commodity business, sensitive to geopolitical factors and economic conditions, making it less appealing for predictable investment [3] - GuruFocus identifies potential value traps using factors like financial strength, debt levels, and the Piotroski F-Score, which measures the trend of the business [4] Valuation Methods & Strategies - GuruFocus's GF Value is calculated by studying the correlations of stock prices with parameters like revenue, earnings, cash flows, and book values, and using these correlations to predict future stock prices [2] - GuruFocus considers its GF Value to be more accurate than traditional ratios like P/E or P/S, as it combines multiple factors and is more universally applicable [2] - GuruFocus offers model portfolios, such as the GF Score strategy, which rebalances annually and has historically outperformed the market, although performance varies year to year [6] Website Updates & User Experience - GuruFocus is addressing a bug related to saving the date when adding stocks, where the database saves the time stamp in seconds [3] - Users can filter articles related to specific stocks under the "News" tab on the stock's page, including GuruFocus articles and third-party sources [3] - GuruFocus offers chat support, initially AI-driven but with human backup, available to answer user questions and provide assistance [3][6]