According to FRED data, the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index has surged above 120, the highest level since the 2020 negative oil price crisis, driven by Middle East conflict and supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices briefly rising above $100. https://t.co/a19xYBgPea ...

Core Viewpoint - Cboe Global Markets is set to launch the Cboe IBIT Volatility Index (BITVX) on March 23, 2026, which will measure the 30-day forward-looking volatility of the bitcoin market based on options from the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The BITVX index will expand Cboe's volatility index suite and apply its proprietary VIX® methodology to the bitcoin market [1] - BITVX is designed to reflect market expectations of near-term volatility derived from IBIT options activity [1] - The index will be calculated using weekly Friday expirations of IBIT options, focusing on two maturities that bracket a constant 30-day target horizon [1] Group 2: Market Context - The new index aims to provide a transparent, rules-based benchmark for expected volatility in digital assets, enhancing the ecosystem for investors [1] - Bitcoin ETF options are increasingly popular among investors for managing bitcoin exposure, indicating a growing interest in digital asset derivatives [1] Group 3: Methodology - BITVX will utilize a model-free measure of implied volatility, aggregating information across a broad range of out-of-the-money option strikes [1] - The methodology is consistent with the established VIX Index framework, which is recognized as a leading gauge of market volatility for the U.S. equity market [1]

Core Insights - Elevance Health Inc (NYSE:ELV) experienced its largest single-day percentage gain since May 2024, reporting profits of $547 million, although this was not sufficient to recover from its worst day since March 2020 due to proposed Medicare Advantage payment rate increases of only 0.09% for 2027 [1] - The stock is currently near a trendline with historically bullish implications, which may assist in reducing its 14.2% year-over-year deficit [1] Technical Analysis - According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst, ELV is within 0.75 of its 100-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained above this level 80% of the time over the last two weeks and 80% of the past 42 trading sessions. This pattern has historically led to an average gain of 5.7% one month later [3] - A similar upward movement from the current position could push ELV back above $363 [3] Market Sentiment - The health insurance stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio at major exchanges is higher than 99% of annual readings, indicating that an unwinding of pessimism could provide positive momentum for the shares [4] - Options for ELV are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33% ranking in the 27th percentile of annual readings, suggesting that the stock has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations over the past year [5]

Core Insights - Synchrony Financial (SYF) has experienced a 50.6% gain over the past nine months but is currently facing a 6.3% decline in January 2026 after reaching a record high of $88.77 on January 9 [1] - The stock has found support at the $75 level, which may help it recover, as it is near a historically bullish trendline that could lead to further gains in the upcoming weeks [1] Technical Analysis - SYF is currently within 0.75 of its 126-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained above this level 80% of the time in the last two weeks and 80% of the past 42 trading sessions [2] - Historical data shows that similar signals have led to a 64% success rate for the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 5.5%, suggesting a potential target of above $82 from its current price of $77.94 [2] Options Market Sentiment - Options traders are showing a bullish sentiment, indicated by a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.25, which is higher than 84% of annual readings [4] - The affordability of options is supported by a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41%, ranking in the 22nd percentile over the last 12 months, suggesting favorable conditions for options trading [5] - SYF's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is high at 85 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded options traders' volatility expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zscaler Inc's stock has reached its lowest level since April, currently trading at $226.95, but is projected to see a 25.9% increase by 2025, with a supportive trendline potentially boosting its performance in 2026 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock is currently down 0.2% and is within 3% of its 24-month moving average, having closed above this trendline for the past five months [2] - Historical data indicates that when the stock has been within 3% of its 24-month moving average, it has increased one month later 69% of the time, with an average gain of 7.2% [2] - Three months following this signal, the stock has averaged a larger gain of 19.8%, with 67% of those returns being positive [2] Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - At major options exchanges, Zscaler's 50-day put/call volume is higher than 95% of readings from the past year, indicating a potential unwinding of pessimism that could benefit the stock [4] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for Zscaler is at 28%, which is at the lower end of annual readings, suggesting that options traders are currently pricing in low volatility expectations [4]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 reached a new record, climbing past 6,920 points with a year-to-date gain of 17% [1] - Other major indices also saw modest gains, indicating a potential fifth consecutive session of increases as the year ends [2] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 13.7, the lowest level since mid-December 2024, reflecting reduced market anxiety [2] Notable Stock Movements - Top gainers in the S&P 500 included Sandisk Corp. and Nike Inc., both rising approximately 5% [2] - Nike shares increased following Apple CEO Tim Cook's purchase of 50,000 shares at $58.97 each [3] - Micron Technology extended its post-earnings rally to 27% over the past five sessions, gaining an additional 4% [3] Banking Sector Highlights - Major banks like Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America reached record levels, with Citigroup marking its sixteenth gain in the past seventeen sessions [3][4] Precious Metals and Crypto Markets - Precious metals experienced a pause in their rally, with gold slipping 0.4% after reaching an intraday high of $4,525 per ounce, and silver falling 0.8% after hitting $72.69 [4] - In the crypto market, Bitcoin decreased by 0.9% to around $87,000, marking a 7% decline year-to-date [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose 0.2% to $633.80, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained 0.4% to $486.07 [7]

Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs strategists suggest the correlation between the US dollar and CBOE's Volatility Index is more significant than its correlation with US stock levels [1]

Company Performance - Carnival reported third quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, with adjusted EPS at $1.43 and revenue surpassing $8 billion [1] - Despite strong earnings, Carnival's stock is trading lower, reflecting market concerns despite a 23% year-to-date increase and a 64% rise over the past year [4][19] Market Trends - Booking trends for Carnival have strengthened since May, indicating robust demand for cruises, particularly for 2026 [2][6] - The cruise industry is experiencing a positive consumer sentiment, with customers willing to spend on future vacations [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Carnival's stock has underperformed compared to Royal Caribbean but has outperformed Norwegian Cruise Line [7] - Viking is noted as the only cruise line outperforming on the day following Carnival's earnings report [2][29] Financial Considerations - Carnival is facing concerns regarding external factors such as potential shutdowns and tariffs, which may impact future performance [5] - The company has significant debt due to expansion efforts, but it trades at a relatively low PE ratio of about 13 to 14, suggesting potential investment opportunities [10][11] Investment Strategies - Options strategies are being discussed to capitalize on the current lower implied volatility following earnings, with a focus on in-the-money calls for bullish trades [20][22] - A put butterfly strategy is being considered for Royal Caribbean, which has a strong balance sheet and is expected to perform well despite upcoming earnings [26][27]

Market Overview - The market has been experiencing a significant upward trend, reaching record levels for indices such as the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq, with volatility decreasing [2][11] - There has been a notable increase in VIX options trading, with 60,000 contracts bought recently, indicating expectations of potential volatility spikes [3][9] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a quarter-point interest rate hike, which is widely expected by the market [6][14] - Jerome Powell's communication style is highlighted as a potential risk for market sentiment, with a suggestion that he should limit his remarks to avoid miscommunication [5][6] Volatility and Options Trading - Large options trades in the VIX suggest that traders are positioning for potential volatility increases, with some buying spreads that could benefit from a rise above 20 [8][10] - The current VIX level is around 16.50, with traders looking for a possible spike, which could be a hedge against market downturns [3][10] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver have seen substantial gains, with both up over 40% year-to-date, driven by factors including currency fluctuations [13][14] - The GLD ETF has been a focal point for options activity, indicating strong investor interest in gold [13] Stock Recommendations - Companies such as Amazon, Oracle, Tesla, and Google are highlighted as having strong upside potential, with positive market activity noted for these stocks [16][17][18] - Google, in particular, is recognized for its unexpected investments and performance, suggesting continued growth potential [18]

Market Volatility - India's volatility index has declined to its lowest level since April 2024 [1] - Market concerns around Trump's tariff threats are waning [1]