For all the attention paid to the dollar’s changing correlation to the level of US stocks this year, Goldman strategists argue that the more interesting linkage lies between the greenback and CBOE’s Volatility Index https://t.co/GrtyhoU30K ...

Company Performance - Carnival reported third quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, with adjusted EPS at $1.43 and revenue surpassing $8 billion [1] - Despite strong earnings, Carnival's stock is trading lower, reflecting market concerns despite a 23% year-to-date increase and a 64% rise over the past year [4][19] Market Trends - Booking trends for Carnival have strengthened since May, indicating robust demand for cruises, particularly for 2026 [2][6] - The cruise industry is experiencing a positive consumer sentiment, with customers willing to spend on future vacations [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Carnival's stock has underperformed compared to Royal Caribbean but has outperformed Norwegian Cruise Line [7] - Viking is noted as the only cruise line outperforming on the day following Carnival's earnings report [2][29] Financial Considerations - Carnival is facing concerns regarding external factors such as potential shutdowns and tariffs, which may impact future performance [5] - The company has significant debt due to expansion efforts, but it trades at a relatively low PE ratio of about 13 to 14, suggesting potential investment opportunities [10][11] Investment Strategies - Options strategies are being discussed to capitalize on the current lower implied volatility following earnings, with a focus on in-the-money calls for bullish trades [20][22] - A put butterfly strategy is being considered for Royal Caribbean, which has a strong balance sheet and is expected to perform well despite upcoming earnings [26][27]

Market Overview - The market has been experiencing a significant upward trend, reaching record levels for indices such as the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq, with volatility decreasing [2][11] - There has been a notable increase in VIX options trading, with 60,000 contracts bought recently, indicating expectations of potential volatility spikes [3][9] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a quarter-point interest rate hike, which is widely expected by the market [6][14] - Jerome Powell's communication style is highlighted as a potential risk for market sentiment, with a suggestion that he should limit his remarks to avoid miscommunication [5][6] Volatility and Options Trading - Large options trades in the VIX suggest that traders are positioning for potential volatility increases, with some buying spreads that could benefit from a rise above 20 [8][10] - The current VIX level is around 16.50, with traders looking for a possible spike, which could be a hedge against market downturns [3][10] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver have seen substantial gains, with both up over 40% year-to-date, driven by factors including currency fluctuations [13][14] - The GLD ETF has been a focal point for options activity, indicating strong investor interest in gold [13] Stock Recommendations - Companies such as Amazon, Oracle, Tesla, and Google are highlighted as having strong upside potential, with positive market activity noted for these stocks [16][17][18] - Google, in particular, is recognized for its unexpected investments and performance, suggesting continued growth potential [18]

Market Volatility - India's volatility index has declined to its lowest level since April 2024 [1] - Market concerns around Trump's tariff threats are waning [1]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is experiencing a breakout above its June closing highs, surpassing its 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) [1] - The stock has bounced near peak put open interest at the 50-strike and is now breaking above the $55 pivot point from a November earnings gap, which has previously acted as both support and resistance [1] - The 65-strike call option is set to expire next week, potentially leading to higher prices as shorts begin to cover, with over 25% of UPST's total available float sold short [2] Group 2 - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for UPST is in the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders can acquire premiums at a relative bargain [2] - A recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 3.7, suggesting it will double in value with a 29.1% move in the underlying equity [3]