Volume-based procurement (VBP)

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中国医疗保健 - 2025 年 7 月中国医院设备招标 - 同比增长保持正,国内企业表现优于跨国公司-China Healthcare_ Jul 2025 China hospital equipment bidding_ yoy growth remains positive, domestic outperforms MNC
2025-08-12 02:34
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare, specifically focusing on hospital equipment and medical devices - **Key Trends**: - July 2025 bidding value data showed a -11% month-over-month (MoM) decline, marking the third consecutive month of decrease, but a +23% year-over-year (YoY) increase was noted, indicating actual demand growth in hospitals [1][2] - The trade-in stimulus, deferred from 2024 to 2025, is expected to have a less pronounced effect compared to previous years [2] Company-Specific Insights United Imaging - **Management Outlook**: Optimistic about the new trade-in program in 2025, expecting a smoother process compared to 2024. However, revenue recognition cycles have lengthened due to changes in hospital bidding processes [19] - **Revenue Growth Projections**: Estimated growth rates for China revenue are +10% for 2Q25, +45% for 3Q25, and +26.8% for 4Q25. The DSA (imaging-guided therapy) product is identified as a near-term growth driver [21] - **Market Position**: Currently trading near median P/E multiple since listing, with significant long-term growth potential anticipated [21][88] Mindray - **Market Performance**: Slower YoY growth observed in patient monitors (+21% in July vs. +50% in June) and ultrasound (+24% in July vs. +48% in June) due to ASP pressure from VBP [26] - **Inventory Management**: Expected to normalize inventory turnover by 2Q25 across all segments [26] - **Investment Thesis**: Strong healthcare infrastructure and domestic substitution trends are expected to support growth. Trading below 5-year average forward P/E due to policy risks, but maintaining market leadership is anticipated [87] Key Data Points - **Bidding Value Trends**: - Positive YoY growth for nine consecutive months, with domestic brands outperforming MNCs [10] - Significant price declines in ultrasound and CT segments due to VBP, with ultrasound prices expected to remain under pressure [14] - **Procurement Value Changes**: - Ultrasound procurement value increased by +24% YoY in July, while CT scanners saw a +44% increase [45][47] - LINAC procurement value increased by +46% YoY in July, down from +161% in June [65] Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: - Ongoing regional VBPs are a key concern, with potential impacts on pricing and procurement processes [14] - Risks associated with chip supply chains, raw material availability, and macroeconomic downturns in China [92] Conclusion - The healthcare equipment industry in China is experiencing a complex landscape with both growth opportunities and challenges. Domestic companies like United Imaging and Mindray are positioned to benefit from favorable trends, although they must navigate pricing pressures and changing procurement dynamics.
Abbott's EPD Growth Beats Market Trends: Here's How to Play the Stock
ZACKS· 2025-08-08 14:41
Core Insights - Abbott Laboratories' Established Pharmaceuticals Division (EPD) is focused on emerging markets, holding leading positions in significant pharmaceutical markets such as India and China, which positions the company for sustained growth in branded generics [1][3] - Despite a projected deceleration in growth for emerging markets to approximately 3.7% by 2025, Abbott's EPD sales increased by 6.9% in Q2 2025, with over half of its top markets achieving double-digit growth [2][3] - Abbott's strategic focus on biosimilars and a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% for EPD indicates strong growth potential [3] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Abbott shares have increased by approximately 16.8%, outperforming the Medical Product industry and the S&P 500, which rose by 3.5% and 7.7% respectively [4] - In Q2 2025, Abbott's Diabetes Care sales grew by 19.6% organically, driven by the success of the FreeStyle Libre CGM system [9][10] - Abbott expects full-year 2025 organic sales growth to be in the range of 7.5-8.0%, with adjusted diluted earnings per share projected between $5.10-$5.20 [11] Market Dynamics - Abbott's Diagnostics business accounted for 19.5% of total revenues in Q2 2025, with strong demand for routine diagnostic tests contributing to growth [7] - The company is investing $0.5 billion in facilities in Illinois and Texas to expand its presence in the molecular testing market [7] - Abbott's Diabetes Care segment is expanding access to over 6 million users globally through its FDA-cleared over-the-counter CGMs [8] Challenges and Outlook - Abbott faces challenges from trade tensions and geopolitical issues, which are impacting demand for MedTech products and increasing costs [12][14] - The Chinese government's volume-based procurement policies are expected to negatively affect Abbott's Diagnostics and EPD businesses, with a projected $700 million headwind to full-year 2025 sales [14] - Despite these challenges, Abbott's operational performance remains strong, with expectations for consistent earnings and margin performance in 2025 [19] Valuation - Abbott's forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 4.92X, which is lower than the industry average of 5.38X, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [15][20]
Will J&J's Q2 Results Reflect End of MedTech Issues & Higher Sales?
ZACKS· 2025-07-07 14:31
Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech segment, which constitutes approximately 36% of total revenues, is experiencing growth driven by newly acquired cardiovascular businesses and new product uptake, but faces challenges in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in China due to government procurement programs and competitive pressures [1][2][4]. Group 1: MedTech Segment Performance - The MedTech segment's growth in Q2 is attributed to the acquisition of Abiomed and Shockwave, alongside the continued uptake of new products [2]. - Sales in China are negatively impacted by the volume-based procurement (VBP) program and an anticorruption campaign, with no expected improvement in 2025 [2]. - Competitive pressures are affecting growth in specific MedTech areas, such as PFA ablation catheters in U.S. electrophysiology [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Sales are anticipated to be higher in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half as the business overcomes challenging first-quarter comparisons and new products gain traction [4]. - Tariff-related costs are expected to negatively impact profits in the MedTech segment [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - J&J's MedTech unit faces significant competition from major players like Medtronic, Abbott, Stryker, and Boston Scientific, each specializing in various medical technologies [4][5]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - J&J's shares have outperformed the industry with a year-to-date increase of 9.7%, compared to a 0.6% rise in the industry [6]. - The company's shares are reasonably priced, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.43, lower than the industry average of 14.99 and below its five-year mean of 15.73 [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has increased slightly from $10.60 to $10.62 per share over the past 30 days [10].
J&J's MedTech Segment Slowing Down: Will its Sales Recover in 2025?
ZACKS· 2025-06-26 14:41
Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates in both pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with the MedTech segment contributing approximately 36% of total revenues [1] MedTech Segment Performance - MedTech sales increased by 4.1% on an operational basis in Q1 2025, driven by new product uptake and contributions from acquisitions of Shockwave and Abiomed [2][4] - Sales in the Asia Pacific region, particularly China, are facing challenges due to the volume-based procurement (VBP) program and anticorruption campaigns, which are expected to continue impacting sales through 2025 [3][4] - Despite headwinds, stronger sales are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as the business overcomes tougher comparisons from the first quarter and new products gain traction [5][8] Competitive Landscape - JNJ's MedTech unit faces competition from major players such as Medtronic, Abbott, Stryker, and Boston Scientific, each specializing in various medical technologies [5][6] Stock Performance and Valuation - JNJ's shares have outperformed the industry year-to-date, rising by 7.1% compared to a 0.4% decline in the industry [7] - The company's shares are reasonably priced, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.12, lower than the industry average of 14.92 and below its five-year mean of 15.74 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JNJ's 2025 earnings remains at $10.60 per share, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly decreased from $11.00 to $10.98 [12]
高盛:威高骨科_2025 年中国医疗保健企业日 —— 关键要点
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-26 14:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Weigao Group is "Buy" with a target price of HK$7.30, indicating an upside potential of 18.5% from the current price of HK$6.16 [8]. Core Insights - The company maintains its full-year revenue growth guidance of 10-15% year-on-year, with expectations of a stronger second half due to a favorable revenue base and new product contributions [2][6]. - New product ramp-up is on track, particularly in perioperative care and the pharmaceutical packaging segment, with specific sales targets set for these products [2][7]. - Operating margins for low-value consumables are expected to stabilize post-Volume-Based Procurement (VBP), supported by cost controls and market expansion efforts [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - Full-year revenue growth guidance remains at 10-15% y/y, with a slower first half anticipated but a stronger second half expected due to a favorable base and new product contributions [2][6]. - The revenue split for 1H25 and 2H25 is projected at Rmb6.64 billion and Rmb6.45 billion respectively [6]. New Products and Market Strategy - The ramp-up of new products is progressing as planned, particularly in perioperative care, with sales targets of Rmb0.8-1 billion for FY25 [6][7]. - In the pharmaceutical packaging segment, pre-filled syringes are expected to grow at a teens rate, driven by new biologics launches [7]. Profitability and Margins - Operating profit is expected to grow in line with revenue, with a one-off gain of Rmb60-70 million anticipated from the listing of Weigao's blood purification business [6]. - Operating margins for low-value consumables are projected to stabilize at 15-20% post-VBP, aided by cost controls and deeper market penetration [7]. International Expansion and M&A - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, with a focus on developing countries and a new plant under construction in Southeast Asia [7]. - Management is evaluating M&A opportunities, particularly in capacity expansion for existing products and new product categories [7].