Industry Overview - Wegovy and Zepbound, two weight loss drugs, ranked among the top 10 best-selling medicines worldwide in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing market for weight management therapies [1] - Projections suggest that more weight management therapies could join the ranks of top-selling drugs in the next five years [1] Amgen - Amgen's leading weight loss candidate, MariTide, completed phase 2 studies last year, showing an average weight loss of up to 20% over a 52-week trial [2] - MariTide could be administered monthly, which may attract patients despite potentially lower efficacy compared to current market leaders that are taken weekly [2] - Amgen started phase 3 studies for MariTide late last year, with potential approval within three years, which would enhance its product lineup [3] - The company is also expected to gain approval for several newer products, including bemarituzumab for gastric cancer and rocatinlimab for eczema, which performed well in phase 3 studies [4] - Other drugs like Tezspire for asthma and Repatha for lowering bad cholesterol will contribute positively to Amgen's sales [5] - Amgen has a strong dividend history, having increased payouts every year since 2011, making it an attractive investment option [5] Roche - Roche's anti-obesity candidate, CT-388, demonstrated a placebo-adjusted weight loss of 22.5% at the highest dose in phase 2 studies [6] - The company plans to initiate phase 3 studies for CT-388 in obesity this quarter, with other weight management candidates like CT-996 in the pipeline [6] - CT-388 is expected to be launched within a few years, contributing to Roche's growth alongside existing products like Tecentriq for cancer and Vabysmo for eye-related diseases [7] - Roche's management anticipates that these products will support the company's top-line growth until 2038 [7]

Group 1 - Viking Therapeutics' shares increased by over 16% following Novo Nordisk's $5.2 billion acquisition of Akero Therapeutics and Pfizer's $7.3 billion acquisition of Metsera, indicating a rising trend in mergers and acquisitions within the biopharmaceutical industry [1][2] - The recent acquisitions are linked to the weight loss market, with Novo Nordisk being a significant player and Metsera's obesity drug candidates enhancing Pfizer's pipeline [2] - Viking Therapeutics is developing an obesity drug, VK2735, which is currently in a phase 3 trial for its subcutaneous form and has recently completed a phase 2 trial for its oral form, despite facing safety and tolerability issues [3][4] Group 2 - The current deal flow in the industry suggests that larger pharmaceutical companies may be interested in partnering with or acquiring Viking Therapeutics to advance the development of VK2735 through phase 3 trials [4][6] - The competitive landscape in the weight loss market is intensifying as big pharma companies seek to strengthen their positions, potentially increasing the attractiveness of Viking Therapeutics' drug candidate [6]

Novo CEO’s First Test is Winning Back the US Weight Loss Market https://t.co/lqhTjQEFmq ...

Core Insights - The weight loss market is becoming increasingly lucrative, with drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound generating billions in sales, prompting other pharmaceutical companies to explore opportunities in this sector [1] Company Overview - AbbVie is entering the weight loss market through a licensing agreement with Danish drugmaker Gubra A/S to develop GUB014295, a potential weight loss therapy [2][4] - The agreement includes an upfront payment of $350 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.9 billion, along with royalties [4] Product Development - GUB014295 operates differently from current leading therapies by mimicking the activity of amylin and calcitonin hormones, rather than the GLP-1 hormone [3] - AbbVie will lead the development of GUB014295, but it is still uncertain if the company can compete effectively against established players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [5][6] Financial Performance - AbbVie's revenue for 2024 increased by 3.7% to $56.3 billion, despite an 8.9% decrease in adjusted earnings per share to $10.12, attributed to acquisition-related expenses [7] - The company's immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, are expected to continue driving sales growth into the next decade [8] Growth Potential - AbbVie has a diverse pipeline with numerous drug candidates and other growth drivers, including its Botox franchise and Venclexta, a cancer medicine [8] - The entry into the weight loss market diversifies AbbVie's clinical lineup, and even if GUB014295 does not succeed, the company is likely to pursue other opportunities in the anti-obesity space [8] Investment Appeal - AbbVie is recognized as a strong dividend stock, having increased its payouts for 52 consecutive years, with a forward yield of 3.1% and a cash payout ratio of just under 62% [9]