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【兴证计算机】信创复盘研究:观往知来,超额成长可期
兴业计算机团队· 2025-04-20 08:49
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the upcoming earnings season, suggesting to accumulate quality leading stocks at the bottom as earnings reports are set to be disclosed soon [2] Group 1: Earnings Reports and Market Trends - As of April 19, 2024, 133 companies have disclosed their 2024 annual reports and 12 companies have released their Q1 2025 reports, accounting for 40% and 4% respectively, with 8 working days remaining in the earnings season [2] - The computer sector has experienced continuous adjustments due to earnings disclosures and international developments, but the overall performance trend and industrial changes remain positive [2] - Historical data shows that since 2010, the probability of the computer index rising in April, May, and June is 20%, 53%, and 60% respectively, indicating a potential upward trend [2] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Model Context Protocol (MCP) is accelerating the application of AI, facilitating seamless interaction between AI models and external tools/data, which aids in the rapid development of Agent applications [3] - Major cloud service providers like Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and Baidu Map have launched MCP-related services, enhancing the AI ecosystem [3] - The eCall industry is poised for growth, driven by increased importance of intelligent driving safety and rising domestic market demand, alongside potential opportunities in overseas markets due to geopolitical changes [3] Group 3: Industry Research - A retrospective study on the Xinchuang industry highlights its growth certainty, suggesting that the sector is expected to achieve excess growth in the future [4]
【兴证计算机】RISC-V开源生态:正在快速崛起的国产化分支
兴业计算机团队· 2025-03-09 10:10
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 1、本周 观 点: 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法? 2、深度跟 踪: RISC-V 开源生态:正在快速崛起的国产化分支 周观点 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法? 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。 鉴于本轮计算机行业的业绩趋势与产业变化的特征,目前暂判断其动能与 2018-2020 年上行趋势具有可比性,但预计本轮会更强一些。综合 来看,全年板块收益的贝塔属性仍在,但将收敛,挖掘阿尔法是未来的胜负手。当前的位置,建议重点关注产业变化更显著、成长空间更大的细分方向,比如 AI 应用、 云计算、信创、 eCall 等方向;对于看重中短期业绩兑现的方向,需聚焦到具备业绩持续超预期能力的公司。 高度重视 AGI 预期发酵。 Manus 的发布,正打开 AGI 预期发酵的大门。 AGI 是人工智能的终极目标,伴随着 Manus 的发布,市场对 AGI 的预期正在升温,同时也 有望加快科技大厂在 AGI 领域的进化速度,以及各应用场景的 AI Agent 落地速度。需要高度重视的是:从投资的长期视角来看, AGI 的预期发酵往往是 AI 投资的最 后冲刺阶段;但从中期视角来看,如果 AGI 的预期发酵能得到产业变化的持续 ...
【兴证计算机】RISC-V开源生态:正在快速崛起的国产化分支
兴业计算机团队· 2025-03-09 10:10
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 周观点 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法? 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。 鉴于本轮计算机行业的业绩趋势与产业变化的特征,目前暂判断其动能与 2018-2020 年上行趋势具有可比性,但预计本轮会更强一些。综合来看,全年板块收益的贝塔属性仍在,但将收敛,挖掘阿 尔法是未来的胜负手。当前的位置,建议重点关注产业变化更显著、成长空间更大的细分方向,比如 AI 应用、 云计算、信创、 eCall 等方向;对于看重中短期业绩兑现的方向,需聚焦到具备业绩持续超预期能力的公司。 高度重视 AGI 预期发酵。 Manus 的发布,正打开 AGI 预期发酵的大门。 AGI 是人工智能的终极目标,伴随着 Manus 的发布,市场对 AGI 的预期正在升温,同时也有望加快科技大厂在 AGI 领域的进化速度,以及各应用场 景的 AI Agent 落地速度。需要高度重视的是:从投资的长期视角来看, AGI 的预期发酵往往是 AI 投资的最后 冲刺阶段;但从中期视角来看,如果 AGI 的预期发酵能得到产业变化的持续共振支持,则行情将具有较强的持续 性。从受益程度来看,考虑到 AGI 的平台化特征,云计算龙头的排序将较为靠前。 ...