兴业计算机团队
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【兴证计算机】OpenAI深度:大模型王者,引领AGI之路
兴业计算机团队· 2026-01-04 05:48
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 ※ OpenAI作为大模型时代的全球领航者,经过10年发展,持续引领大模型产业风向。 对OpenAI的复盘和研究, 有助于更好地理解AI大模型产业趋势。 本篇报告从OpenAI的历史沿革、产品布局、未来展望等维度出发,对AI 大模型行业做了前瞻剖析。 复盘:AI新物种,大模型时代的全球领航者。1)团队激励显效,海纳顶尖人才: OpenAI自2015年以非营利机构形式 成立,凭借顶尖创始团队的技术积淀奠定领先地位。近年团队规模持续扩张,但仍保持扁平化架构,2025年4月员工 人数已超过5000人,公司薪酬中位数(63万美元)领先全美,并通过PPU激励机制吸引AI人才,涵盖大量AI学术和实 践领军人物。 2)收入增长强劲,结构趋向多元: 公司预计2025全年营收130亿美元,同比增长2.5倍;并预计2028年 营收超过千亿美元,收入结构从ChatGPT向API、Agents等领域多元发展。 3)估值方面: 公司融资历程丰富,融资窗 口多伴随重磅AI模型升级、产品发布,历经10余轮融资后,截至2025年底估值 ...
【兴证计算机】2026年元旦假期备忘录
兴业计算机团队· 2026-01-03 14:11
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 本周 观 点 : 创新为矛,积极把握春季行情 周观点 创新为矛,积极把握春季行情 长 期维度, 2026 年重点配置 AI 、国产化、前沿科技。 回顾 2025 年,申万计算机指数年涨幅为 18.24% ,位列 14/31 ,在 TMT 板块内部排名靠后,跑输万得全 A 指数 9.41 个百分点。主要原因是计算机行业的业绩改善力度相对温和,且 AI 革命存在硬件投入先行的特点。展望 2026 年,国产 AI 算力的业绩兑现有望全面提速, AI 应用的商业化能力将持续提升,信创节奏加快,以商业航天、数字人民币、脑机接口、量子科技等为代表的前沿创新领域突破在望。建议以兑现为盾,以创新为矛, 积极把握计算机的结构性机会。 短期维度,持续加仓,积极布局计算机板块春季行情。 计算机行业自 2025 年 9 月以来,调整较为充分,叠加业绩企稳带来一定的估值切换,投资价值不断凸显。从过 往来看,由于政策及产业红利的影响,计算机行业在 Q1 往往具有较好的赚钱效应,尤其是 2 月份。当前,科技行业的持仓水 ...
【兴证计算机】一文看懂全球商业航天标杆SpaceX
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-28 11:16
2、深度跟 踪 :一文看懂全球商业航天标杆 SpaceX 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点 : 播种春季躁动,积极关注商业航天 周观点 播种春季躁动,积极关注商业航天 加大板块布局力度,播种春季躁动行情。 2025 年全年收官在即,申万计算机板块 2025 年以来涨幅 16.89% ,排名 16/31 ,在 TMT 板块中排名靠后。结构上,涨幅 排名靠前的标的呈现主营业务具备重大变化或卡位高景气赛道的特点。展望 2026 年,计算机板块每年 2 月份具备极高胜率,属于春季躁动行情中可重点关注的方向, 建议可逐步加大板块仓位,优选景气赛道高性价比龙头,同时考虑 1 月份业绩预告逐步披露,建议底部布局绩优品种。 商业航天落地加速,积极关注景气赛道变化。 本周商业航天迎多项重要产业变化,长征十二号甲成功发射,并尝试一级火箭回收试验,民营火箭企业蓝箭航天 IPO 辅导 验收完成,上市发行确定性提升。前期,美国推出新的太空政策,谷歌宣布构建太空数据中心, SpaceX 逐步推进 IPO 计划,商业航天作为国内外共振 ...
【兴证计算机】从火山原动力大会看AI投资机会
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-21 10:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to increase left-side layout efforts in the computer sector, suggesting that the sector has undergone sufficient adjustment since September [1] - The recommendation for left-side layout focuses on three areas: 1) Sub-sectors with significant industrial potential and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and assisted driving; 2) Sub-sectors benefiting from domestic circulation and policy dividends, including domestic production and digital RMB; 3) High-quality stocks with low valuation levels and sustainable growth capabilities [1] Group 2 - The current acceleration of capitalization in the domestic AI industry is highlighted, with companies like Moer Technology and Shanghai Muxi listing on the STAR Market, and Wallen Technology passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing [2] - The financing capabilities of leading domestic AI companies are significantly enhanced, which is expected to promote faster industry development [2] - Major companies like ByteDance and Ant Group are making advancements in AI, with ByteDance releasing new models and Ant Group upgrading its AI health application, indicating a sustained high level of activity in the domestic AI chain [2]
【兴证计算机】Robotaxi:进入商业化落地加速阶段
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-14 07:11
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨/罗池婧 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点 : 持续逢低布局,关注字节链 2、深度跟 踪 :Robotaxi :进入商业化落地加速阶段 AI 再迎催化,建议关注字节链。 目前, AI 产业迭代正加速。继谷歌发布 Gemini 3 之后, OpenAI 于 12 月 11 日推出了 GPT-5.2 。展望下周:光合组织人工智能创 新大会将于 12 月 17 日召开,海光信息预计展示万卡超节点智算集群;火山引擎原动力大会将于 12 月 18 日召开,聚焦" Agentic AI 重塑产业",有望展示 AI Agent 、 大模型、生态合作等多方面最新进展。考虑到字节在国内大模型产业的重要影响,可重点关注字节链核心标的。本文第二章,对 Robotaxi 产业进行了专题跟踪。 本文第二章,对 Robotaxi 产业进行了专题跟踪。 风险提示: 板块业绩不达预期;下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险;科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。 周观点 持续逢低布局,关注字节链 持续逢低布局,以时间换空间。 本周,中央经济工作会议强调"坚持创新 ...
【兴证计算机】2026年度投资策略:结构致胜,创新为矛
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-10 08:42
点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦! 投资要点 2026年投资展望:结构致胜,创新为矛。1)整体判断: 本轮上行的核心驱动在于产业创新、政策发力、业绩改 善三者共振,影响未来趋势的主要因素是AI创新的兑现能力、业绩改善的持续性与力度、政策深化发力的空间, 寻找结构性机会将是未来一年板块投资的核心工作。 2)板块业绩: 从前三季度来看,呈现企稳回暖趋势,需求 端将决定未来一年的业绩趋势。 3)机构持仓: 已连续8个季度处于低配区间,未来业绩的改善力度及持续性将 是影响超配比例的关键。 4)投资风格: 预计将从过去一年的偏困境反转型的中小市值风格趋于更为均衡。 5) 展望十五五: 围绕着科技自立自强、新质生产力等关键词,建议守正出奇,重点关注AI与国产化的兑现、前沿创 新的突破,把握相关的投资机会。 AI应用:从1到N,闭环生态日臻完善。1)模型端: Scaling Law持续驱动性能提升,大语言模型竞争白热化,国 产模型快速追赶,Nano Banana Pro带来多模态奇点时刻,关注 科大讯飞。 2)企业级AI: AI应用商业化首发阵 地,2026年将从1到N,工业、商业、特种行业、电力行业正加速落地,关注 中控技术、 ...
【兴证计算机】豆包AI手机:AI时代新超级入口的先行者
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-07 12:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes increasing the allocation ratio to the computer sector from a medium-term perspective, especially as the market shifts focus towards annual report performance expectations and cross-year opportunities [1][2] - It is suggested to avoid high-valuation stocks with uncertain future performance and instead increase investment in leading companies that are expected to benefit from policy dividends and have supportive valuations [1][2] Group 2 - The launch of the Doubao AI phone marks the beginning of a significant transformation in the AI era, with ByteDance collaborating with ZTE to release a technology preview that redefines human-computer interaction [2] - The Doubao AI phone is expected to have a profound impact on the mobile internet landscape due to its super entry point attribute, and the upcoming 2025 Original Power Conference on December 18 may unveil a series of product updates [2] - The continuous iteration of AI large models is driving a deep disruption in the IT industry, indicating a major shift in the industry landscape and potential significant investment opportunities [2]
【兴证计算机】合合信息(深度):OCR领军,恰沐AI应用春风
兴业计算机团队· 2025-12-01 12:11
Core Viewpoint - The company, Hehe Information, is a leading enterprise in text recognition, leveraging its core OCR technology to achieve stable and sustainable growth in the AI and big data industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hehe Information has developed into an industry leader in AI and big data, primarily driven by its intelligent text recognition technology [1]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 988 million yuan in 2022 to 1.438 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.67%, 20.04%, and 21.21% respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 284 million yuan in 2022 to 401 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 96.37%, 13.91%, and 23.93% respectively [1]. Group 2: C-end Business - The C-end business boasts a large user base with strong engagement and significant growth potential, having 181 million monthly active users and 8.5255 million paying users as of the first half of 2025 [1]. - The main revenue source from C-end products is the "Scan All-in-One" app, which holds a leading global market share, while "Business Card All-in-One" and "Qixinbao" also contribute to brand recognition and commercial big data efforts [1][2]. - The C-end segment benefits from continuous technological leadership and strategic positioning in various application scenarios, with substantial growth opportunities in overseas markets where current revenue contribution is relatively low [1]. Group 3: B-end Business - The B-end business focuses on intelligent text recognition and commercial big data, with a dual approach to drive growth [2]. - The company has developed the TextIn platform, which offers a comprehensive suite of intelligent document solutions, including general text recognition and specialized identification services [2]. - The commercial big data segment provides enterprise data APIs and databases, with a key product, Qixin Huayan, aimed at facilitating data-driven decision-making for businesses [2].
【兴证计算机】商业航天司设立,产业发展迎新机
兴业计算机团队· 2025-11-30 15:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the focus on two categories of cross-year investment opportunities, particularly in AI applications that are accelerating their implementation [1][2] - The report suggests that as December approaches, market attention on cross-year products is expected to increase, highlighting the importance of companies with high growth in their annual reports [1] - The computer sector is anticipated to show a clear turnaround in investment attributes by 2025, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in well-anticipated markets such as AI and domestic production, as well as emerging technology sectors like quantum technology and commercial aerospace [1] Group 2 - AI applications are experiencing rapid deployment, exemplified by the recent public testing of the Qianwen APP, which achieved over 10 million downloads in just one week, marking it as the fastest-growing AI application [2] - The upcoming Winter FORCE conference by Volcano Engine in mid-December is expected to catalyze significant developments in the ByteDance industry chain [2] - With the rapid iteration of foundational large models, AI applications that offer quality user experiences and innovative deployment scenarios are likely to accelerate, making them attractive investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - The second chapter of the report provides a specialized follow-up on the current state of the commercial aerospace industry, indicating a new phase of development following the establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Division [3][6]
【兴证计算机】AI应用:谷歌王者归来,商业奇点临近
兴业计算机团队· 2025-11-23 09:19
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a decline in risk appetite, suggesting that investors should increase positions in certain directions and leading stocks during this period of volatility [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market environment indicates a preference for stocks with cross-year certainty, focusing on valuation, earnings growth, and industry prosperity changes as core considerations [1] - The overall allocation in the computer sector is currently low, presenting a comparative advantage for positioning ahead of the spring rally [1] Group 2: AI Application Insights - Google's recent releases of Gemini3 and Nano Banana Pro have demonstrated significant performance improvements, reaffirming the effectiveness of Scaling Law and indicating sustained high demand in the AI sector [2] - The launch of xAI's Grok4.1 model and the public testing of Qianwen APP by Ant Group highlight ongoing advancements in AI capabilities, suggesting that the industry may be approaching a commercial singularity [2]