So from our standpoint um as you will have seen a solid majority of FOMC participants do expect that it will become appropriate uh later this year to begin to reduce rates again. And so um and u that will depend though as Christine just mentioned on the incoming data. We'll be monitoring particularly what does show up in terms of of inflation or what does not show up and also carefully watching the labor market.you know, there we watch very carefully for signs of of unexpected weakness. We see a gradual coo ...

A solid majority of FOMC participants do expect that it will become appropriate later this year to begin to reduce rates again. And so and that will depend, though, as Christine just mentioned, on the incoming data will be monitoring, particularly what does show up in terms of of inflation or what does not show up. And also carefully watching the labor market, you know, there we watch very carefully for signs of of unexpected weakness.We see a gradual cooling, but we don't really see that yet. So those are ...

Well, Federal Reserve officials are split on whether an interest rate cut in July is on the table depending on whether the FOMC holds rates steady or reduces the benchmark rate. What does that outcome mean for your everyday finances. Here to explain and discuss further, we've got Rob Conzo, who is the Wealth Alliance CEO.Rob, good to have you here with us. How does the Fed's benchmark rate affect people's personal finances. Great to be with you, Brad.Um, it's a very misunderstood rate. It's the red the rate ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid economic uncertainty [1] - The chairman highlighted uncertainty regarding the inflationary effects of tariff policy, noting that these effects are expected to become more apparent in the coming months [1] - Futures markets are pricing in over 60 basis points (0.6%) of rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2] Economic Projections - The Fed reduced its GDP growth projection for 2026 to 1.4%, a decrease of over 0.6% from current levels above 2% [3] - Inflation expectation projections were raised to 3%, raising concerns about a potential stagflationary period possibly fueled by exogenous forces [3] Upcoming Data - The CPI data on July 15th is expected to provide a clearer picture of the inflation path and could influence expectations for the next Fed rate cut [3]

branch. What's your thought about her. Quote.>> I personally think that's a very reasonable way to think about it. >> Thank you very much. I yield back.The gentleman from New York is recognized for five minutes. >> Thank you, Mr. . Chairman.Good morning, Mr. . Chair. Chair Powell, and thank you for being here.Last week, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at four and a quarter to 4.5%. While I was not surprised by the decision to hold rates steady, I was surprised by the ...

On this Fed day, no change in interest rates. The Fed just announcing a moment ago it's leaving its benchmark rate unchanged. And not a huge surprise if you've been with us here on Bloomberg, I'm glad to say.We're joined now by Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat from Massachusetts, with us live from Capitol Hill. And it's great to see you, Senator. Welcome back to Bloomberg.You've been calling for cuts here on Bloomberg for months, much like President Trump has. In fact, just today, he called on Jay Pow ...

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dualmandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Breaking news.The FOMC meeting took place today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made an interesting announcement shortly after. The news is this.The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum emp ...

Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook - The market is facing a battle between resilience and complacency as the second quarter ends [1] - Some believe the market is resilient and will continue to rise towards all-time highs [2] - Concerns exist about the removal of buybacks and the end of the 90-day tariff extension [3] - The market may react negatively if the dot plot indicates only one rate cut, while two cuts may already be priced in [12] - The market has pure momentum in basically every sector, with strong appetite for IPOs until the second quarter earnings reports [17][18] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The FOMC meeting is anticipated with uncertainty, especially regarding Chairman Powell's stance [3][4] - Some argue that recent weak data points, such as the largest drop in retail sales since March 2023 and poor home builder sentiment, justify a dovish stance [5] - Michigan consumer one-year inflation expectations have decreased from 73% to 53%, which the Fed may consider significant [6][7] - Uncertainty regarding tariffs and the Middle East conflict may prevent the Fed from adopting a dovish position [8][9] - The Fed's own measure of uncertainty is near pandemic and financial crisis levels, suggesting caution [22][23] - The core PCE went up by 03%, Real GDP went down by 04%, and the funds rate kept unchanged at 39% [21][22] Inflation & Tariffs - Looming tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East create uncertainty regarding future oil prices [8] - Inflation readings have been relatively good recently [8] - Inventories not subject to tariffs are dwindling, potentially leading to higher prices [16] - One company's aluminum costs, previously sourced from China, increased by 50%, leading them to source from the US, but costs are still up 35% year-over-year [14]

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy**, focusing on inflation trends, trade policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation Trends**: - May's inflation data showed a softer-than-expected increase, with Core CPI rising only **0.13% m/m (2.8% y/y)**, significantly below expectations of **0.27%** and **0.30%** from Barclays and consensus respectively [2][4] - The overall CPI inflation was also soft at **0.08% m/m (2.3% y/y)**, influenced by declining gasoline prices [2][4] 2. **Trade Policy Impact**: - The US-China trade discussions have not made significant progress, with the current truce set to expire on **August 10**. The administration is considering restoring country-specific tariffs and increasing sectoral tariffs on autos [4][11] - Businesses are expected to pass through approximately **50%** of tariff costs to consumer prices, which could significantly impact retail margins [6][11] 3. **Federal Reserve's Stance**: - The FOMC is expected to maintain the current target range for the funds rate at **4.25-4.50%**, with only one rate cut anticipated this year and three in **2026** [17][31] - Updated projections are likely to reflect higher inflation and downgraded GDP growth for **2025**, with core PCE inflation expected at **3.1%** [18][31] 4. **Economic Growth Projections**: - The GDP growth forecast for the current quarter is projected at **1.2% q/q saar**, with consumer spending showing signs of strength despite inflationary pressures [25][31] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to **4.5%** by **2025**, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [18][31] 5. **Consumer Sentiment and Spending**: - Recent consumer sentiment data showed improvement, with the current conditions index rising to **63.7** and expectations increasing to **58.4** [14][27] - Retail sales are anticipated to show weakness, with a forecasted decline of **1.0% m/m** due to falling vehicle sales and gasoline prices [15][31] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The **PPI** for final goods rose only **0.1% m/m (2.6% y/y)**, indicating a continued soft trajectory since March [3][4] - The **Treasury budget deficit** grew to **$316.0 billion** in May, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges [27] - Initial jobless claims have remained elevated, indicating some deterioration in labor market conditions, with claims at **248k** for the week ending June 7 [13][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook, inflation trends, trade policy implications, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.