QCP notes that Bitcoin briefly fell below $90K this week, pressured by cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut and continued ETF outflows. Lower liquidity further amplified the decline. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that a December rate cut is “not guaranteed.” Markets are closely watching this week’s labor data and leading indicators to assess whether Bitcoin’s pullback is a short-term positioning adjustment or the start of a broader risk-off shift.https://t.co/esxQ4DAuN1 ...

Hello and welcome to Morning Brief Market Sunrise. I'm Raman Carmali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Tuesday 18th November.Coming up on the show, Bitcoin falls below $90,000. I've been talking to a top executive at one of the world's largest chip companies and some signs of consumer weakness after Home Depot results disappoint. So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning.Okay, we're going to focus on markets. Let's start with crypto. Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in Asia trading earlier.Howe ...

Bitcoin fell into the red for 2025. In fact, around $600 billion has been wiped off its market value after it reached that record high back in October. The one reason that helps explain this fall is market expectation for a Fed rate cut.Market pricing for a December rate cut dropped to around 40% from over 60% just one week earlier, prompting investors to shift capital away from high-risk assets like Bitcoin. This dramatic reversal in expectations has sent ripples through cryptocurrency markets. ...

Treasuries rallied as trading in the cash market resumed after a holiday, with traders pricing in a higher chance of a Fed rate cut in December following a weak private payrolls report https://t.co/S3zWMPvEAu ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US equities continued to rally in Q3 2025, driven by the Fed rate cut, solid corporate earnings, and enthusiasm around AI [1] - The portfolio of The London Company appreciated 6.0% gross (5.8% net) compared to a 5.3% increase in the Russell 1000 Value Index [1] Group 2: Apple Inc. Performance - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) had a one-month return of 4.64% and a 52-week gain of 21.25%, closing at $270.04 per share with a market capitalization of $3.99 trillion on November 4, 2025 [2] - Apple Inc. reported revenue of $102.5 billion in the September quarter, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Apple Inc. remains a strong performer, providing stability within the technology sector, with earnings driven by growth in the high-margin Services business and strong iPhone sales [3] - The London Company continues to hold AAPL for its strong user ecosystem and cash flow production [3] - Apple Inc. is ranked 8th among the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds, with 156 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The crypto market has underperformed compared to equities since April, with Bitcoin down over 15% in the last 30 days despite favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - Bitcoin's year-to-date gain is only 4.2%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 16.76% gain [2] - Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto sector, with crypto ETF inflows stalling [3][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has maintained a 1.66% gain in the last 30 days, while the crypto market has shed over $500 billion [1][6] - Bitcoin is currently around $104,000, Ethereum at $3,500, and both BNB and SOL have dropped over 20% [6] - The GMCI-30 index dropped 12% last week, with significant losses across various sectors, particularly Gaming (-21%) and Layer 2 solutions (-19%) [6] Liquidity and Market Structure - Despite an increase in the Federal Reserve's M2 Money Supply by over $2 trillion, reaching over $22 trillion, the crypto sector has not benefited from this liquidity [3] - The current market structure in crypto appears healthy, with leverage flushed out and positioning clean, but a resurgence in ETF or digital asset treasury flows is necessary for renewed liquidity [4] - Central banks are cutting rates into relative strength, indicating that the crypto bull run may not be over despite current challenges [8]

Market Overview - Wall Street is entering a historically strong month, with November being the best month for the S&P 500, averaging a gain of 1.8% since 1950 [1] - The S&P 500 is currently just below the 7,000 mark, significantly above the year-end target of 6,555 predicted by strategists [2] - All three major indexes have shown strong year-to-date gains, with the Dow Jones up 12.2%, S&P 500 up over 16%, and Nasdaq Composite up over 23% as of October 31, 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has entered an easing policy era, having cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second consecutive meeting, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [4] - The rate cut reflects the Fed's intention to bolster economic growth and strengthen the labor market amid limited economic data due to a government shutdown [5] U.S.-China Trade Relations - Investor confidence has been boosted by hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions, following a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, where they reached an understanding to pause new trade tensions [6] - China will cease investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, as announced by the White House [7] Consumer Spending Trends - Approximately 91% of consumers plan to celebrate the winter holidays, with average spending expected to be $890.49 per person, a slight decrease of 1.3% from last year's record [8] Investment Opportunities - **High Beta ETF**: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) is recommended due to easing Fed policy and trade tensions, along with anticipated holiday season sales [10] - **Consumer Discretionary ETF**: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is expected to benefit from increased holiday shopping, with significant holdings in Amazon and Home Depot [11] - **Software ETF**: SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) is positioned well due to the growing demand for AI software, which is sold on a subscription basis [12] - **Aerospace ETF**: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has reported earnings growth of 226.1% on 15% higher revenues, making it a strong investment option [13] - **Small-Caps ETF**: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is favored due to Fed rate cuts, easing trade tensions, and favorable small-cap valuations [14]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 advanced about 1.9%, the Dow Jones gained 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged about 4.2% in October 2025 [1] Earnings Season - Of the 222 S&P 500 companies that reported Q3 results, earnings increased by 10.7% year over year on 8% higher revenues, with 83.8% surpassing EPS estimates and 77.9% exceeding revenue forecasts; notably, 68.5% beat both metrics [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, reflecting intentions to bolster economic growth and strengthen the labor market [4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - Hopes for easing U.S.-China trade tensions have increased investor confidence, with discussions between President Trump and President Xi Jinping indicating a pause in new trade tensions and a resumption of U.S. agricultural imports [5] - China will end investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, as announced by the White House [6] Company Highlights - NVIDIA has reached a $5-trillion market cap, driven by partnerships with the U.S. Energy Department and Uber, among others, focusing on supercomputers and self-driving cars [7] - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares surged 55.5% over the past month, bolstered by a multi-billion dollar strategic partnership with OpenAI [10] Gold Market - Gold prices fell in late October, with the SPDR Gold Trust losing about 0.8% over the past week and about 8.7% over the last 10 days, attributed to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar [8] ETF Performance - The Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF (AMDU) increased by 97.7% in the past month [9] - The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) rose by 35.3%, driven by political developments that strengthened confidence in fiscal reforms [12] - The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) gained 29.7%, benefiting from increased institutional and corporate adoption of cryptocurrencies [13] - The Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR) increased by 28.2%, driven by the AI industry's demand for clean energy sources [14]

Market Overview - Major stock indices are experiencing gains, with the Dow up approximately 150 points, S&P 500 increasing by about 0.6%, and NASDAQ rising by around 1% [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is noted at 4.1%, while Bitcoin has rebounded over 2% [3] Amazon's Performance - Amazon's stock surged over 10% following a strong quarterly report, driven by significant growth in its cloud business, AWS, amid concerns about market share [5][6] - AWS infrastructure has expanded with 3.8 gigawatts built over the past year to meet AI demand, indicating strong future growth potential [7][8] - North American retail business saw an 11% increase, contributing to improved margins and profitability [9][10] AI and E-commerce Innovations - Amazon's AI shopping assistant, Rufus, is projected to create an incremental opportunity of over $10 billion, enhancing consumer engagement and conversion rates [11][14] - The shift towards agentic commerce is expected to streamline consumer purchasing behavior, further benefiting Amazon's market position [12][13] Earnings Season Insights - Approximately 87% of stocks have exceeded earnings expectations, with 83% surpassing revenue estimates, marking a strong earnings season [21] - The overall earnings growth for the S&P 500 is around 9.3%, with margins at 12.8%, above historical averages [21] Chevron's Financial Results - Chevron reported a 21% increase in production, aided by the acquisition of Hess, leading to record cash flow and earnings [48][49] - The company emphasizes long-term investments and capital discipline, with 85% of its business focused on upstream operations [53][54] Regulatory and Market Trends - Coinbase has benefited from regulatory clarity, driving growth through product innovation and partnerships, positioning itself as a comprehensive trading and payments platform [96][100] - The potential introduction of a base token by Coinbase could represent a significant market opportunity, estimated between $12 billion to $34 billion [103] Berkshire Hathaway's Challenges - Berkshire Hathaway faces declining revenues and margins across several businesses, including Geico and its railroad operations, due to increased claims and reduced pricing power [110][114] - The phase-out of tax credits associated with alternative energy investments may impact future earnings and valuations [116][117]

Market Trends - Treasury yields increased this week as traders reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Hawkish signals from Chair Jerome Powell contributed to the shift in expectations [1] - Signs of resilience in the US economy also played a role in the adjustment of rate cut expectations [1]