But I want to get to the broader markets. And we have a Fed meeting next week and there's a lot going on in rates as well. So let's bring in Rick Rieder.We have a ton of economic data coming out at the top of the hour, Rick. And normally we would have also jobs day to day. That's going to be pushed forward a couple of weeks or back, a couple of weeks, I should say.And this leads me to my my main question. Why would the Fed meet next week if they're not going to get the big jobs number out until after their ...

Bitcoin jumps back above $93K as short liquidations and fresh institutional interest help fuel rebound ahead of Fed meeting https://t.co/UzuT6pW6nO ...

Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is viewed as an agonizing one, with market probabilities at 50/50 [1][2] - The Fed funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4% [5][6] - Some believe the neutral Fed funds rate is much lower, potentially leading to a 50 basis point cut [6] - The real neutral Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) is estimated to be between 0.75% and 1% [7] - A neutral nominal Fed funds rate of 2.75% assumes inflation will return to 2%, but it's currently running at 2.75% to 3% [8] - Adding the current inflation rate (2.75% to 3%) to the real neutral rate (0.75% to 1%) yields a nominal rate of 3.5% to 3.75% [9] - The market is seeing more hawkish voices emerge because the Fed is closer to neutral, having already cut rates by 25 basis points in October [11] - The Fed needs to assess whether the labor market weakness is cyclical, due to the shutdown, or structural (mismatches between jobs and job seekers) [13] Economic Factors Influencing the Fed - Near-term tariffs are slowing growth [3] - Immigration policies and uncertainty around 12 to 15 million immigrants in the workforce are affecting supply and hurting growth [4] - The government shutdown has hurt growth, but its resolution will help [4][12] - Tailwinds in 2026 include the unwinding of the shutdown, tax incentives, and regulatory relief [4] - The AI data center power boom is considered near neutral on the Fed funds rate [5] - Inflation has been sticky and running 0.75% to 1% above target [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The week saw significant focus on Big Tech earnings, trade deal developments, and a Federal Reserve meeting, leading to volatility despite mid-week records being achieved [1] - All three major indexes experienced weekly and monthly gains as October concluded [1] Group 2: Technology Sector Highlights - Various subsectors within technology were highlighted, including fintech and semiconductors, with Seagate Technology (STX) reporting strong earnings [2] - Major tech companies such as Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon.com (AMZN) generated significant options activity following their earnings reports [3] Group 3: Old Economy Insights - UnitedHealthcare (UNH) reported disappointing earnings, while UPS (UPS) faced scrutiny due to job cuts [4] - Lululemon (LULU) gained attention following a partnership with the NFL, and options traders reacted to earnings reports from both Lululemon and UPS [4] - Chipotle's poor earnings report negatively impacted fast casual restaurant stocks, but DoorDash (DASH) remained unaffected [4] Group 4: Seasonal Trends - November is historically a bullish month, with expectations for earnings reports to dominate headlines [5]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting was a significant event, with market expectations for rate cuts being adjusted, particularly regarding the potential for a 25 basis point cut in December [2][3] - The Fed's Chairman dampened expectations for immediate rate cuts, indicating that inflation remains above the target of 2%, which has implications for future monetary policy [3][4] - The ongoing government shutdown is contributing to a lack of economic data, which may affect market reactions and Fed decisions moving forward [5][6] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The current yield on the 10-year Treasury is approximately 4.1%, which is considered attractive compared to historical levels, despite being near lows over the past year [10][11] - There is a recommendation for investors to focus on higher credit quality due to tight spreads, suggesting that the compensation for lower-rated issuers is not sufficient [12] - A strategy of maintaining an average duration of about six years is advised, as locking in yields in the current environment is seen as beneficial for income-focused investors [13]

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a confidence boost, driven by strong earnings from major companies like Amazon and Apple [1][2] - There is a noticeable sector rotation occurring, with investors shifting focus from technology to financial and pharmaceutical sectors [3] - The market is still processing the implications of the recent Federal Reserve meeting, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [3] Company Performance - Amazon reported strong earnings, significantly aided by its AWS segment, which exceeded expectations [1][4] - Apple also surpassed expectations with iPhone sales, contributing positively to market sentiment [1] - Alphabet achieved a 2.5% gain due to robust performance in advertising and cloud services, reporting quarterly earnings of $100 billion [2] - META Platforms faced a decline of over 11% due to rising expenses and a one-time tax charge of $16 billion [2] - Chipotle Mexican Grill saw an 18.2% drop, attributed to struggles with the 25–34-year-old customer demographic and a lowered yearly outlook [2] - Exxon Mobil Corporation's earnings slightly missed expectations, continuing a year-over-year decline due to lower crude oil prices [2] - Chevron Corporation's earnings also fell year-over-year but exceeded estimates, resulting in a mostly unchanged stock price [2] Market Trends - Investor expectations are shifting, with a rotation from a heavily weighted tech sector to financial and pharmaceutical sectors [3] - A fragile "trade truce" between the US and China is being monitored, as it raises concerns within the investing community [3] - The probabilities of a December rate cut are evolving, influenced by comments from the Federal Reserve [3]

Market Sentiment - Speculation on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's statements is considered a gamble [1] - The current economic situation is described as "the endgame" [1]

Market Overview & FOMC Meeting Impact - The market is almost fully pricing in a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the actual decision due shortly [3][5] - A 0.25% rate cut is considered neutral as it's already priced in, while a 0.50% cut could trigger a bullish move, and no cut could cause a short-term market dump [6][7] - The Fed chair press conference, happening shortly after the rate decision, could also induce market volatility [8] - US stock market's bullish performance is generally correlated with positive crypto market performance, while stock market downturns often coincide with crypto market dumps [10] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin is retesting a crucial support area in the short term, while a bullish divergence is still in play [1] - Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a bearish divergence between price and RSI, suggesting a potential cooling off period in bullish momentum [13][14] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are around $110.5K to $111K, and $111.6K to $112K, with resistance expected between $115.5K to $116K [15][16] - A confirmed breakout above $116K could target $120.5K to $121K as the next major resistance area [17] Altcoin Analysis - Ethereum has broken below a crucial support area, potentially turning it into new resistance between $4060 to $4100 [2][36][37] - Solana is attempting to break out above the $190 to $200 range, with potential resistance at $219 to $220, $23 to $24, and $29 [45][46][48] - XRP is facing resistance between $260 to $270, with a potential breakout targeting $288, based on an inverse head and shoulders pattern [50][53][54] - Chainlink is showing a bullish divergence, with resistance expected between $19 to $20; a breakout above $20 could lead to a move towards $22 [56][57] Trading Strategy - The presenter is using a futures grid bot on Pinex, which profits from Bitcoin's volatility by automatically buying low and selling high [21][22] - Risk management strategies include taking profits at resistance levels and moving stop-loss orders into profit to secure gains [43]

Expectations are set for two things from this week’s Fed meeting: Officials will lower rates by a quarter percentage point and Chair Jerome Powell will offer little guidance as a growing divide among policymakers blurs the path ahead. https://t.co/55ZvMEsC1b ...

Market Overview - Tech stocks are experiencing a rally driven by optimism surrounding AI, contributing to gains in major indices such as the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ [1][2][3] - The Dow increased by 280 points, while the S&P 500 rose by approximately 0.5% and the NASDAQ by about 1% [1][2][3] - The Russell 2000 index showed mixed performance, primarily remaining in the red for the day [4][5] Sector Performance - The technology sector is the standout performer, with the XLK ETF up 1.3%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [6] - Consumer discretionary and materials sectors also showed positive movement, while real estate and utilities sectors lagged behind [6][7] - Notable tech stocks hitting record highs include Nvidia (up 5.5%), Broadcom (up 3%), and Tesla (up 2%) [7] Nvidia's Developments - Nvidia's CEO announced new partnerships at the GTC conference, including collaborations with Uber and the Department of Energy to build seven AI supercomputers [9][10] - Jensen Huang projected potential revenues of $500 billion through 2026, indicating strong demand for AI and GPU technologies [13] - Nvidia's investment in Nokia aims to enhance 5G and 6G network capabilities, showcasing its strategic focus on key technological trends [15][17] Earnings and Market Sentiment - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are highly anticipated, with expectations for continued growth in AI-related spending [19][20] - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth in the face of high capital expenditures and potential overbuilding in AI infrastructure [66][70] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have declined over 1.5%, reflecting typical market behavior following the Fed's interest rate cuts, with a year-to-date increase of 49% [36][37] - Major banks predict that gold prices will rise again in the future, despite current declines [38] Bitwise's New ETF Launch - Bitwise launched the first spot Solana exchange-traded product (ETP) in the US, providing investors with direct access to the Solana blockchain and staking rewards [39][40] - Solana is recognized for its high transaction speed and low costs, positioning it as a significant player in the future of digital assets [44] Amazon's Performance and Job Cuts - Amazon is expected to report a 19% growth in AWS, driven by increased AI-related demand and capacity [86][87] - The company announced 14,000 job cuts, which analysts view as part of routine adjustments rather than a sign of broader industry issues [96][98]