This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Happy Wednesday. When you work in journalism, there's a new surprising story each day. Yesterday, it was about what gold investors can learn from King Henry VIII's reign.S&P 500 futures are rising this morning after a winning day.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:1. Decisions, decisionsFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting ...

Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hman broadcasting from a snowy New Jersey today. Um and we are watching markets today ahead of a very very busy trading week of various events from the Federal Reserve's meeting at which it's not expected to change rates to earnings from four of the seven magnificent seven stocks and earnings from many many more companies as well. It's really expected to ramp up on Tuesday in terms of the earnings reports after a quiet Monday. A quiet Monday by the way in which we are s ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) price has been fluctuating between $85,000 and $95,000, with potential for movement following the Federal Open Markets Committee's interest rate decision [1] - The consensus indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% [1] Company Insights - Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report earnings on January 28, with a projected earnings estimate of $8.22 per share [5] - Tesla holds over 11,500 BTC, making it the 13th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [2] Exchange Developments - Bybit, the second-largest crypto exchange, will present its 2026 roadmap on January 29, following a significant security breach last year where hackers stole approximately $1.4 billion in ether (ETH) [3] Upcoming Events - Key events include the U.S. durable goods orders and the Fed's interest rate decision on January 28, which may impact market sentiment [4]

Earnings Reports - Tesla reported quarterly revenue higher than the previous year, ending two consecutive down quarters, but earnings per share fell below Wall Street expectations due to rising capital expenditures, leading to a more than 3% drop in premarket trading [1][5] - Southwest Airlines exceeded expectations for both revenue and earnings per share, posting a profit when analysts had anticipated a loss, although shares were down over 1% before the market opened [2] - American Airlines also outperformed analyst forecasts and provided a positive outlook for the remainder of the year, resulting in nearly a 4% increase in shares following the earnings release [3] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a mixed response as investors weighed OPEC's potential output cuts against concerns of slow U.S. growth, with Brent crude prices rising over 5% following new sanctions imposed by the White House on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's largest oil companies [4][6] Technology Sector - Meta is cutting approximately 600 roles from its AI business, which has been described as bloated, while the division that includes major AI hires remains unaffected [7] - Prominent figures in technology, including Richard Branson and Steve Wozniak, are advocating for a pause on the development of "Superintelligence," a form of AI that could surpass human capabilities [8] Labor Relations - The Starbucks Workers United union is set to vote on authorizing a strike, with plans for rallies and pickets nationwide, as they seek higher pay and improved working conditions after negotiations broke down late last year [10][11]

Core Insights - Tesla is set to report earnings, with analysts keenly awaiting insights from Elon Musk during the conference call [1][4] - The company has seen its shares rise 100% over the past year, but there are concerns about future performance despite strong current sales [2][4] Financial Performance - Analysts expect Tesla's third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) to fall approximately 25% year-over-year to 53 cents, while revenue is projected to increase by about 5% to $26.45 billion [5] - Adjusted earnings are anticipated to be around $1.9 billion, significantly lower than the $2.5 billion reported a year ago, indicating potential headwinds [5][6] Market Dynamics - Record deliveries of nearly 500,000 cars in the third quarter were supported by the now-expired $7,500 EV tax credit, which has contributed to reduced EV inventories and improved margins [6][8] - There is an expectation of a decline in sales in the fourth quarter due to a pull-forward effect from the end of the tax credits [7][9] Regulatory Environment - The elimination of the zero-emission vehicle credit and corporate average fuel economy fines has raised concerns, as these credits have generated $11 billion for Tesla since 2019, accounting for about 16% of its total gross profits last year [8][9] - Investors will be closely monitoring the impact of these regulatory changes on Tesla's financials and future guidance [9] Strategic Focus - The earnings call will likely address Tesla's future direction, including developments in autonomous driving technology and the energy business, as the company aims to position itself as more than just a car manufacturer [10][12] - The performance of Tesla's robotics initiatives, particularly the Optimus project, will also be a key topic of discussion [10]

Future Prospects - Tesla is considered an easy long-term investment [1] - The company is involved in robotics, AI, and Robo Taxis [1] - Tesla is positioned as "the future of everything company" [1] Market Prediction - Polymarket projects Tesla to significantly exceed earnings expectations [1] - Polymarket estimates an 80% chance of Tesla surpassing earnings expectations [1]

Group 1 - US stock futures showed mixed performance after a record-setting session for the Dow, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 remaining little changed, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by approximately 0.2% [1] - Wall Street is optimistic about earnings reports, particularly from Tesla, which is expected to release its quarterly report, marking the beginning of updates from the "Magnificent Seven" companies [2] - Netflix's stock fell over 8% due to earnings that missed expectations, influenced by a tax dispute in Brazil, while Mattel's shares also declined as North American sales did not meet forecasts [3] Group 2 - Gold prices continued to decline after experiencing the largest one-day drop in over a decade, as market concerns over trade tensions appear to be temporarily set aside [4] - The US federal shutdown has delayed official economic releases, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index report expected to influence market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut is widely anticipated [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is marked by significant earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix, alongside the release of the September CPI inflation report, which is expected to influence market sentiment [1][2][4] - The stock market has experienced a rebound, generating optimism for the coming week, particularly with the focus on mining and defense stocks [2][4] - U.S.-China trade talks are highlighted as a major factor that could impact market dynamics, especially in light of recent comments from former President Trump regarding China [4] Group 2 - Tesla is positioned as a key stock to watch, with expectations that it may exceed third-quarter earnings estimates, contributing to its strong market performance [4] - The market is also observing the performance of clean energy stocks, which have outperformed fossil fuel stocks despite facing backlash against ESG initiatives [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is expected to be significant for the stock market, with major earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix, alongside the release of the September CPI inflation report [1][2] - The stock market has shown strong weekly gains, contributing to a positive outlook for the coming week [1][2] - U.S.-China trade talks are anticipated to be a major factor influencing market movements [1] Group 2 - Tesla is highlighted as a key stock to watch, with expectations that it may exceed third-quarter earnings estimates [4] - The market is also focusing on various sectors, including defense and mining, as part of the broader economic landscape [2][4] - The stock market has experienced a rebound, driven by comments related to China and other market dynamics [4]

Meanwhile, Tesla earnings due out after the bell today. They already reported a 14% drop in second quarter deliveries. That was earlier this month.But the shares are up 32% in the past three months. Let's bring in George Genericus. He's senior analyst at Cancority.Pretty positive on the stock. George, what are you expecting tonight. >> Well, we're going to figure out what the margins are obviously when the company reports its financials, but what's really, really important to watch is just the inflection po ...