Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to allow the U.S. to stockpile metal resources from the Pacific seabed in response to China's dominance in the battery metals and rare earth supply chain, but faces significant challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges of Deep-Sea Mining - There is widespread domestic opposition in the U.S. to deep-sea mining due to environmental concerns, with experts warning that it could cause far greater damage than land mining [5]. - The U.S. lacks the necessary technology and capabilities for deep-sea mining, which involves high costs and complex operations, making it potentially more expensive than importing rare earth materials [5]. - The U.S. faces pressure from the United Nations, as the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has stated that all exploration and mining activities must be regulated by them, and unilateral actions could violate international law [7]. Group 2: Context of Rare Earth Supply Chain - The U.S. is currently highly dependent on China for both raw materials and development technology related to rare earth elements, which poses a risk if China decides to restrict exports [3]. - China has already begun implementing export controls on seven rare earth items in response to U.S. tariffs, highlighting the ongoing tensions in the trade relationship [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [22]. Core Insights - Orano's revenue for 2024 reached €5.874 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% from €4.775 billion in 2023 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly by 192% to €633 million in 2024, compared to €217 million in 2023 [9]. - The backlog of orders reached €9.069 billion, with 42% coming from outside France, indicating a strong market position [1]. Financial Performance Summary 1) Order Backlog - Total order backlog increased to €35.9 billion by the end of 2024, up from €30.8 billion at the end of 2023, with €1.3 billion attributed to market revaluation and currency effects [1]. 2) Revenue Breakdown - Mining revenue was €1.502 billion, a 13.9% increase year-on-year, driven by rising uranium prices [2]. - Front-end revenue remained stable at €1.307 billion, with positive price effects offsetting lower volume effects [2]. - Back-end revenue surged to €3.027 billion, a 41.8% increase, primarily due to a one-time contract with a Japanese utility [2]. 3) Operating Profit - Operating profit for 2024 was €1.085 billion, an increase of €450 million from 2023 [4]. - The mining segment's operating profit decreased to €122 million, reflecting challenges in Niger [7]. - The front-end segment's operating profit rose to €425 million, while the back-end segment's operating profit increased significantly to €616 million [7]. 4) Adjusted Net Profit - Adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was €597 million in 2024, up from €22 million in 2023 [8]. 5) Cash Flow and Debt - EBITDA for Orano was €2.067 billion, a substantial increase from €1.228 billion in 2023, with an EBITDA margin rising from 25.7% to 35.2% [10]. - As of December 31, 2024, Orano had €1.3 billion in cash and €780 million in net debt, down from €1.48 billion in 2023 [14]. 6) Future Outlook - For 2025, Orano aims for revenues close to €5 billion, with an EBITDA margin between 23% and 25% and positive net cash flow [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, highlighting that in 2024, tax revenue growth is expected to lag behind nominal GDP growth by 7.6 percentage points, which poses a constraint on fiscal expansion. The analysis aims to explore whether tax growth can reverse this trend under a more proactive fiscal stance in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Tax Revenue and GDP Growth Patterns - Historical data shows a non-symmetrical fluctuation characteristic between tax revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, with a tax elasticity coefficient of approximately 2, meaning tax revenue growth typically fluctuates around zero when GDP growth is at a 5% baseline [2][7]. - The primary source of tax revenue elasticity is the income tax mechanism, where corporate profits fluctuate more than revenue, and personal income tax features a progressive rate that causes tax growth to exceed income growth [8]. - The decline in tax revenue in 2024 is primarily attributed to decreases in domestic value-added tax, export tax rebates, deed tax, and land value-added tax, with a total decline of 616.4 billion yuan, or 3.4% year-on-year [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Tax Burden Disparities - The concentration of tax revenue is significantly higher than that of GDP, with the top five industries contributing 77.4% of tax revenue compared to 58.8% of GDP [13]. - High tax burden industries include real estate, finance, and leasing services, with tax-to-value-added ratios exceeding 20%, while low tax burden industries are primarily in agriculture, education, and health [14]. - The tax revenue of the manufacturing and wholesale retail sectors is primarily influenced by fluctuations in the Producer Price Index (PPI), while the real estate sector's tax revenue is closely linked to land acquisition and property sales cycles [15][16]. Group 3: Tax Revenue Trends for 2025 - Tax revenue is expected to recover to 2023 levels, with a projected average growth rate of 3.9% across 21 provinces, indicating a potential return to approximately 18 trillion yuan in total tax revenue [19][20]. - The anticipated recovery in tax revenue is supported by a predicted slight improvement in PPI and manageable declines in credit growth, which are expected to stabilize tax income [18]. - Tax reform is seen as a critical opportunity, with the need to address the declining share of tax revenue in GDP and the necessity for adjustments in the central-local fiscal relationship, particularly in light of pressures from the real estate sector [20].