格隆汇2月24日｜日本正着手开展从海底提取稀土元素的雄心勃勃的计划。日本本月早些时候宣布，从 南鸟岛附近海域约6000米深的海底采集到含有稀土的沉积物。南鸟岛位于东京市中心东南方向约1900公 里。日本政府官员指出，南鸟岛稀土是未来供应的一种选项，可能在2028年3月之后成为采购来源之 一，为供应链作出贡献。日本首相高市早苗日前对当地媒体说，她计划在3月同美国总统特朗普会面 时，要求美国参与南鸟岛开采计划，并加快项目进度。不过，有专家质疑商业化深海采矿的成本连同技 术上的挑战，可能会抵消它在低放射性或重稀土组合方面的优势。环保人士也担心海洋生态受到影响。 ...

Core Insights - TMC the Metals Company Inc. is a key player in the deep-sea mining industry, focusing on extracting essential metals like manganese, cobalt, nickel, and copper, which are critical for U.S. supply security [1][5] - An analyst from National Bank has set a price target of $11.75 for TMC, indicating a potential increase of approximately 25.6% from its current stock price [2][5] - TMC's projects have a combined after-tax net present value (NPV) of $23.6 billion, significantly higher than its market capitalization of approximately $3.92 billion, suggesting a bullish outlook for the company [3][5] Market Performance - TMC's current stock price is $9.50, reflecting a 14.12% increase from a previous price of $9.36, with a trading volume of 19.13 million shares indicating strong investor interest [2][4] - The stock has fluctuated between $8.51 and $9.67 recently, with a 52-week high of $11.35 and a low of $1.42, showcasing its volatility in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion surrounding deep-sea mining has evolved beyond mere technical and cost considerations to encompass global ocean governance, the effectiveness of international rules, and pathways for sustainable development [1][3]. Group 1: Environmental Impact - Deep-sea mining is increasingly scrutinized due to its potential negative impacts on marine ecosystems, including significant destruction of seabed habitats and a sharp decline in biodiversity, with effects that may last for decades [3]. - A major study led by the London Natural History Museum and other institutions found that in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, the number of small marine animals decreased by 37% and species richness dropped by 32% following mining tests [3][4]. - The Clarion-Clipperton Zone is a critical area for deep-sea mining, containing unique ecosystems and significant reserves of key metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, which exceed terrestrial deposits [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Landscape - Norway has postponed its first round of deep-sea mining licenses until at least 2029 to conduct further environmental risk studies and improve regulatory frameworks, contrasting with the U.S. push for immediate mining activities [6]. - The U.S. has shown urgency in advancing deep-sea mining, with plans for a Canadian subsidiary to explore the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, aiming for commercial mining to start by 2027 [7]. - The International Seabed Authority (ISA) is currently discussing regulations for deep-sea mining, but no commercial mining plans have been approved due to unresolved international legal frameworks [7][9]. Group 3: Multilateral Governance - The unilateral actions of the U.S. in deep-sea mining are raising concerns about the stability of international cooperation and governance in this area, as emphasized by the ISA Secretary-General [9]. - There is a consensus that a multilateral governance framework is essential to regulate deep-sea mining and protect marine ecosystems, with calls for cautious advancement of rules to prevent unilateralism from undermining existing agreements [9][10]. - Experts warn that the current mining technologies are too destructive for large-scale commercial exploration, and the ecological impacts of even small-scale tests have been significant [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Viability - The economic feasibility of deep-sea mining remains questionable, with high capital and operational costs, as well as technical uncertainties that are more complex than terrestrial mining [10].

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Trump emphasized the development of nuclear energy and criticized wind power during his speech at Davos, stating that the stock market decline is insignificant and will rise on favorable news in the future [1][5] - Key Point 2: Trump announced a preliminary agreement framework with NATO regarding Greenland and the Arctic, retracting previously planned tariffs set to take effect on February 1 [1][5] - Key Point 3: The Trump administration is accelerating the approval process for deep-sea mining permits to encourage exploration of critical minerals in international waters, which may face environmental and legal concerns [6] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Trump expressed concerns about the new Federal Reserve Chairman's loyalty and indicated that the selection process has narrowed down to two or three candidates [6] - Key Point 2: The Trump administration is reportedly seeking to undermine the Cuban government by finding insiders to assist in efforts to destabilize the regime by the end of the year [7] - Key Point 3: The U.S. Supreme Court may reject Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating a cautious approach to maintaining the Fed's independence [7]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is advancing a measure to expedite the issuance of permits for companies exploring critical minerals in international waters, encouraging deep-sea exploration in the U.S. [2] - The new rule established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration aims to streamline the permitting and approval process into a single review, shortening the timeline for approvals [2] - The Metals Company, a Canadian mining firm, has initiated the application process for such exploration permits, aiming to become the first company to receive approval for deep-sea mineral development [2] Group 2 - Significant deposits of polymetallic nodules, which contain essential materials for electric vehicles and electronics such as nickel, copper, and cobalt, are believed to exist in parts of the Pacific and other regions [3] - The Trump administration's executive order directs the government to accelerate mining permit approvals under the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, establishing a procedure for issuing permits on the U.S. outer continental shelf [4] - The International Seabed Authority, established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, has been reviewing standards for deep-sea mining in international waters, but formal standards have not yet been established due to disagreements among parties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for key mineral metals is rapidly increasing due to energy transition, while deep-sea mining is gaining attention for its potential negative impacts on marine ecology, raising widespread concerns about environmental sustainability and global ocean governance [1][2]. Group 1: Environmental Impact of Deep-Sea Mining - Research indicates that deep-sea mining activities can lead to significant destruction of seabed habitats, resulting in a 37% reduction in the number of small marine animals and a 32% decrease in species richness in affected areas [2]. - The Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a key area for deep-sea mining, is home to over 30 species of whales and hundreds of unique deep-sea organisms, with significant reserves of nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese [2]. - Approximately 30% of small marine animals depend on polymetallic nodules for survival, and mining operations are expected to cause biodiversity loss [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Challenges - The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has issued 31 exploration contracts to 21 entities from 20 countries, but no commercial mining plans have been approved due to pending international regulations [5]. - The U.S. is pushing for deep-sea mining under a unilateral framework, which raises concerns about conflicts with international governance and the potential for destabilizing established cooperative efforts [4][6]. - The ISA is working on comprehensive mining regulations to ensure future commercial activities are conducted responsibly while protecting marine ecosystems [7]. Group 3: Economic Viability and Technical Challenges - The commercial feasibility of deep-sea mining remains questionable, with significant capital investment and operational costs, as well as technical uncertainties that are more complex than land-based mining [8]. - Experts suggest that the destructive nature of current mining technologies makes large-scale commercial exploration inadvisable, as even small-scale tests have shown significant ecological impacts [7].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is attempting to reduce its reliance on China for rare earth materials by initiating deep-sea rare earth mining while facing tightened export controls from China on dual-use items, including those for civilian purposes [1][4][10]. Group 1: Export Controls and Impact - China has tightened export controls on rare earth products to Japan, affecting both military and civilian sectors, with reports of increased difficulty in obtaining export licenses [1][4]. - Japanese companies are experiencing delays in the approval process for export licenses, with procurement cycles for neodymium-iron-boron magnets extending from 1-2 months to 3-4 months [4][5]. - The Chinese authorities are conducting strict checks on the end-user identity and purpose of rare earth products, leading to a significant reduction in the frequency of export license approvals [4][5]. Group 2: Japan's Deep-Sea Mining Initiative - Japan plans to launch a deep-sea rare earth mining trial on January 11, aiming to extract resources from a site near Minami-Torishima, which is estimated to contain over 16 million tons of rare earths, ranking third globally [5][6][9]. - The deep-sea mining project is seen as a crucial step for Japan to secure its domestic supply chain for critical industries, with the potential to significantly reduce dependence on Chinese imports [8][10]. - The mining operation will utilize the research vessel "Chikyu" to collect rare earth-rich mud from a depth of 6,000 meters, marking a global first in such deep-sea mining efforts [5][9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Industry Outlook - Japan's strategy to mitigate supply chain risks includes collaboration with G7 nations and investment in domestic mineral processing capabilities through the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) [10][11]. - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to take appropriate measures to ensure the smooth transport of essential materials amid rising tensions with China [5][10]. - Analysts suggest that while Japan's efforts to establish alternative supply chains are underway, the challenges of rebuilding the rare earth industry outside of China remain significant due to a lack of experience and technical expertise [11].

Core Viewpoint - China is enhancing its mineral exploration efforts by integrating land and sea strategies, focusing on deep-sea resource investigation to secure critical metal supplies for its economy and technological advancement [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Deep-Sea Mining - The demand for key metals such as nickel, cobalt, and copper is surging globally, making deep-sea mining a new frontier for technological and strategic competition among nations [2]. - China's reliance on foreign sources for certain metals is high, with cobalt dependency reaching nearly 99% and copper at 77%, highlighting the need for domestic resource security [4]. - The economic value of deep-sea mining is significant, with the potential value of metals extracted from seabed nodules estimated at 6,000 to 7,000 yuan per ton, compared to much lower values for land-based sources [4]. Group 2: Technological and Environmental Challenges - Deep-sea mining presents challenges in technology, environmental impact, and cost, requiring advanced solutions for stable and reliable operations in extreme underwater conditions [6][7]. - Recent breakthroughs in deep-sea mining technology, such as the "Kai Tuo No. 2" mining vehicle, demonstrate China's growing capabilities in this field, achieving operational depths of 4,000 meters [7]. - Environmental concerns arise from insufficient understanding of deep-sea ecosystems, with mining activities potentially causing unpredictable disturbances [8]. Group 3: Strategic Development and Future Directions - The Chinese government is planning a long-term roadmap for deep-sea mining, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and international cooperation in technology development [9][10]. - Local initiatives, such as those in Qingdao, are focusing on enhancing deep-sea mining capabilities and integrating marine industries [9]. - The future of deep-sea mining in China will depend on solidifying foundational technologies, reducing uncertainties, and establishing responsible supply chain standards [10].

Core Viewpoint - The deep sea is rich in polymetallic nodules containing critical metals such as manganese, copper, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for various industries, particularly the new energy sector [1][4]. Group 1: Demand and Strategic Importance - The global demand for key metals like nickel, cobalt, and copper is surging, making deep-sea mining a new frontier for technological and strategic competition among nations [2]. - China's reliance on foreign sources for certain metals is high, with cobalt dependency reaching nearly 99% and copper at 77%, highlighting the strategic necessity of deep-sea mining for resource security [4]. Group 2: Economic Value and Technological Advancements - The economic potential of deep-sea mining is significant, with the value of metals extracted from seabed nodules estimated to be between 6,000 to 7,000 yuan per ton, compared to much lower values for land-based mining [4]. - Advancements in deep-sea mining technology, such as the "Kaituo No. 2" mining vehicle, have achieved breakthroughs, including a successful sea trial at depths of 4,000 meters, indicating progress in China's deep-sea mining capabilities [7]. Group 3: Challenges in Deep-Sea Mining - The primary challenges in deep-sea mining include technological difficulties, environmental concerns, and high operational costs, with the need for reliable, autonomous operations in extreme underwater conditions [6][8]. - Environmental risks are significant due to limited understanding of deep-sea ecosystems, which may be adversely affected by mining activities [7]. Group 4: Future Development and Strategic Planning - China has outlined a long-term roadmap for deep-sea mining, emphasizing the need for coordinated resource exploration and sustainable practices [9]. - The focus for future development should be on enhancing global cooperation, reducing uncertainties, and establishing responsible supply chain standards for deep-sea minerals [10][11].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing global demand for critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, and copper, leading to a strategic focus on deep-sea mining as a new frontier for resource exploration and technological competition among nations [2][4]. Group 1: Deep-Sea Mining Overview - Deep-sea mining involves both the exploration and development of resources on a nation's continental shelf and in international seabed areas regulated by the International Seabed Authority [3]. - The primary types of deep-sea metal deposits include polymetallic nodules, cobalt-rich crusts, metal sulfides, and deep-sea rare earths, which are essential for various industries, particularly the renewable energy sector [4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - China's high dependency on foreign sources for certain metals, such as cobalt (99% dependency) and copper (77% dependency), underscores the importance of deep-sea mining for ensuring a stable supply chain for strategic resources [4]. - The economic value of deep-sea mining is significant, with the potential value of extracted materials from seabed nodules estimated to be between 6,000 to 7,000 yuan per ton, compared to much lower values for land-based mining [4]. Group 3: Technological and Environmental Challenges - The challenges of deep-sea mining include technological difficulties, environmental concerns, and high operational costs, with a focus on achieving reliable, unmanned operations in extreme underwater conditions [6][8]. - Recent advancements in deep-sea mining technology, such as the "Kai Tuo No. 2" mining vehicle, demonstrate China's progress in this field, achieving significant milestones in deep-sea operations [8]. Group 4: Future Development and Collaboration - The Chinese government has outlined a long-term roadmap for deep-sea mining, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in resource exploration and environmental protection [10]. - Future development should focus on building a sustainable framework for deep-sea mining, enhancing global cooperation, and establishing responsible supply chain standards [10][12].