Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Lijiang Co., indicating a forecasted relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable operations in 2024, with Q4 revenue performance showing double growth. The dividend proposal remains consistent with the previous year, yielding a dividend rate of 3.5% based on the closing price on March 18 [3][5]. - The company’s 2024 revenue is projected at 808 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 211 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year due to fluctuations in gross margin and expense ratios [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 799 million yuan - 2024A: 808 million yuan - 2025E: 866 million yuan - 2026E: 936 million yuan - 2027E: 967 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 152% (2023A), 1% (2024A), 7% (2025E), 8% (2026E), 3% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 227 million yuan - 2024A: 211 million yuan - 2025E: 250 million yuan - 2026E: 283 million yuan - 2027E: 303 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 6072% (2023A), -7% (2024A), 18% (2025E), 13% (2026E), 7% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.41 yuan - 2024A: 0.38 yuan - 2025E: 0.45 yuan - 2026E: 0.52 yuan - 2027E: 0.55 yuan [2][5]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: 24.0 (2023A), 25.9 (2024A), 21.9 (2025E), 19.3 (2026E), 18.0 (2027E) - P/B: 2.2 (2023A), 2.2 (2024A), 2.0 (2025E), 1.9 (2026E), 1.8 (2027E) [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s core business segments, including cableway and performance services, continue to show growth. In 2024, the total number of visitors to the three cableways reached 6.6684 million, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The revenue from cableway services was 410 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, while performance revenue was 140 million yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase [5][6]. - The hotel business remains under pressure, with a revenue of 167 million yuan in 2024, down 11.1% year-on-year. The company continues to expand its hotel offerings, including the opening of a luxury hotel in July 2024 [5][6].

昨晚评论席有人问我做西安大唐不夜城的曲江文旅，为什么上半年还亏了将近2亿，我当时第一直觉是成本控制有问题，收盘后去验证了一下，发现情况 要复杂一些。 首先大唐不夜城虽然是一个网红景点，但它不收门票，流量大，但人均消费低。曲江文旅是轻资产代运营，挣的是收入分成，最后上市公司到账只有很薄 的利润，上半年就赚了20多万。 其次曲江文旅在当地事业单位和机构有大量的应收账款，在上半年计提了小2亿的坏账，这是上半年亏损的主要来源。涉及坏账的对象是西安曲江新区事 业资产管理中心、西安曲江大明宫遗址区保护改造办公室、西安曲江文化产业发展中心，累计坏账5亿多。 这些单位名字一听就一股官味，是的，和曲江文旅一样，都是由曲江新区管委会最终控制，说白了大家就是国资控股的兄弟企业。 是不是听了觉得怪怪 的， 国资企业 互相欠帐，最后把坏账装到上市公司里，股民成了最终买单的倒霉蛋。 其实类似的情况还有张家界（000430），旅游行业红红火火，但是上市公司上半年亏6000万。原因是投资20亿修的大庸古城，上半年客流量下跌80%，买 票人数只有0.23万，营业收入232万。 就这么一片现代仿古建筑群，我没看出来20亿是怎么花的，反正也都是花 ...