[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 10 月 10 日，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 以及中证 1000 等 ETF 成交额 较上一交易日增加。华夏上证 50ETF、华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF、嘉实沪深 300ETF、易方达沪深 300ETF、南方中证 500ETF、南方中证 1000ETF 和华夏中 证 1000ETF 成交额分别为 29.14 亿元、55.82 亿元、13.46 亿元、9.87 亿元、 21.97 亿元、15.61 亿元和 3.87 亿元，分别较上一交易日变化+7.86 亿元、 +12.73 亿元、+6.15 亿元、+2.07 亿元、+3.11 亿元、+2.64 亿元、+0.13 亿 元。10 月 9 日主要宽基 ETF 资金流向显示资金主要流入沪深 300ETF，流入金 额为 15.11 亿元。 南向资金 10 月 10 日净流出，合计 3.99 亿港元。其中，沪市港股通当日 净流出 12.20 亿港元，深市港股通当日净流入 8.21 亿港元。港股市场成交额 3337.37 亿港元，较上一交易日减少 530.81 亿港元。 10 月 10 日，亚太主要股指收盘涨 ...

本文主要是对各类市场参与主体的资金流向进行持续动态跟踪。具体内容如下： 证券研究报告 市场参与主体资金流向变化研究（三）： 2025年上半年新动向 证券分析师 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 研究助理 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2025年10月10日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 • 权益市场：25年上半年，国家队、保险机构依旧是权益市场主要参与方，权益投资规模持续提升；被动产品，特别是ETF发展趋势延续。 • 1）国家队：18年后持续贡献边际增量，在市场中持续发挥稳定器的作用。流通股东统计口径下，截至2025年2季末，国家队（包含中央汇金、证金、国新、集成电路、外 管局、诚通等在内的主要机构）持有股票市值约4.10万亿元；持仓ETF规模约1.30万亿元。股票持仓方面，2季度国家队持仓银行板块市值占比约74.4%，较1季度末进一步提 升。ETF方面，25年上半年大幅增持中证1000 ...

今年的行情已走过了三个季度，一些买宽基ETF的朋友假期可能有点"懵"：手里的宽基产品明明涨得不错（沪深300涨近18%，创业板指飙51%），怎么份额 反倒悄悄少了？ 看数据更直观——全市场宽基ETF总规模从2.19万亿元冲到2.51万亿元，猛增3200亿元，可份额却掉了2241亿份！ 这不是"bug"，而是两个"小秘密"在搞事：一是净值涨得太凶，把你止盈卖出的份额"盖"住了；二是大家开始"移情别恋"——行业、主题ETF（贴热点、弹性 高）以及债券ETF这些"新欢"抢了宽基的"旧爱"位置。 原来，市场早就从"买个宽基躺平"，变成"挑着热点精准进攻"了！ 此外，宽基ETF内部也出现了明显分化：有的"稳如老狗"（几只沪深300ETF业绩、规模稳健增长），有的涨得越猛却被卖得越狠（3只涨超50%的成长宽基 产品遭遇超百亿级的净赎回），这又是怎么回事？ 什么情况？前三季度宽基ETF规模增长3200亿元，份额却大减 跟踪指数方面，前三季度宽基ETF涨幅榜TOP20产品主要来自两大阵营：创业板、科创板相关宽基指数，尤其是创业板50指数和科创创业50指数。创业板50 指数3只产品入围不算太多，但排名第一、第三和第六，均非常靠 ...

Market Performance - On September 29, 2025, the market opened high and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.74%[3] - The total market turnover reached 21,781.39 billion yuan, an increase of 120.36 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector led the gains with an increase of 3.84%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 3.74% and electric equipment & new energy at 2.78%[3] - Conversely, the coal sector declined by 0.90%, banks fell by 0.49%, and consumer services dropped by 0.30%[3] Capital Flow - On September 29, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 95.27 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net inflow of 173.64 billion yuan, while medium and small orders experienced net outflows of 203.19 billion yuan and net inflows of 107.92 billion yuan respectively[4] - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant increases in trading volume, with changes of +24.79 billion yuan and +22.76 billion yuan respectively[4] Global Market Trends - On September 29, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up by 1.89% and the Nikkei 225 down by 0.69%[5][6] - European indices also saw gains, with the DAX rising by 0.87% and the FTSE 100 increasing by 0.77%[6] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that the data presented is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice[7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with significant inflows into stock ETFs, particularly in the semiconductor and A500 sectors, indicating a growing investor confidence and potential investment opportunities [3][5][12]. ETF Market Overview - On September 25, the A-share market saw all major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2%. Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of over 7 billion yuan, highlighting a shift in investor focus towards specific sectors [3][5]. - The total market size of stock ETFs reached 4.47 trillion yuan as of September 25, with a notable net inflow of 7 billion yuan on that day [5]. - Industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.33 billion yuan, with semiconductor-related products attracting the most attention, drawing in 3.27 billion yuan [6]. Sector-Specific Inflows - The A500 ETF from Huatai-PineBridge and the A500 ETF from Fortune both saw significant inflows of 1.12 billion yuan and 993 million yuan, respectively, indicating strong investor interest in these funds [7]. - The semiconductor ETF attracted 710 million yuan, while the coal ETF and robotics ETF saw inflows of 628 million yuan and 555 million yuan, respectively [8]. - Conversely, the CSI 300 Index ETF experienced a net outflow of 1.13 billion yuan, indicating a shift away from broader market indices [10][11]. Future Outlook - According to fund managers, the domestic economic growth momentum is expected to stabilize and improve, supported by favorable industrial policies and increased R&D investments. This environment is likely to enhance the innovation capabilities and global competitiveness of China's advantageous industries [12].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 基金·研究院 Fund A8 5万亿ETF高歌猛进 同质化背后暗藏 【相关阅读】 应加强监督ETF成份股调整 【5万亿市场高歌猛进！这些隐忧不可轻忽】ETF发展势头迅猛，规模呈爆发式增长，继2024年突破3万 亿元整数关口后，今年又接连迈过4万亿元、5万亿元两大里程碑，扩容速度备受瞩目。值得警惕的是， 耀眼的数字背后，隐忧正逐渐显现。近期市场中接连出现ETF成份股股价大幅震荡、指数成份股流动性 不足、同质化产品扎堆扩容、高波动产品风险评级与实际风险不匹配等现象，再度引发业内广泛关注。 尽管这些问题看似是行业高速扩张中的"小插曲"，但背后暗藏的"隐秘角落"与潜在风险绝不可轻视， 也折射出当前ETF生态建设在关键细节、风险管控等方面存在短板，亟待进一步完善与优化。 ES 215 12 ETF发展势头迅猛，规模呈爆发式增长，继2024年突破3万亿元整数关口后，今年又接连迈过4万亿元、 5万亿元两大里程碑，扩容速度备受瞩目。 值得警惕的是，耀眼的数字背后，隐忧正逐渐显现。近期市场中接连出现ETF成份股股价大幅震荡、指 数成份股流动性不足、同质化产品扎堆扩容、高波动产品 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the funding flow of market participants has changed, with a notable increase in equity investments from long-term institutional investors such as the national team and insurance companies, while passive products, especially ETFs, continue to grow [6][7][11] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the national team held approximately 4.10 trillion yuan in stocks, accounting for about 4.52% of the A-share market value, and had an ETF holding scale of about 1.30 trillion yuan [11][12] - Insurance institutions have increased their allocation to the stock market, with their equity investment structure shifting towards high-dividend stocks and diversified ETFs, holding approximately 5.21% of the total A-share market value as of mid-2025 [18][19][24] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the national team increased its holdings in bank stocks and core ETFs such as the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Sci-Tech 50 ETFs, with significant increases in their market values [12][14][15] - Insurance institutions have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with their holdings in Hong Kong ETFs growing by 25% compared to the end of 2024, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-dividend and technology sectors [21][25] - Private equity funds have shown flexibility in their operations, reducing exposure to pharmaceutical stocks while increasing investments in technology stocks, indicating a shift in focus towards sectors with higher growth potential [35][39] Group 3 - Foreign capital has maintained a stable share of the A-share market, with a preference for core assets in China's advantageous industries, while also increasing their allocation to US stock ETFs in the first half of 2025 [43][44] - The bond market remains dominated by banks and insurance companies, with commercial banks holding approximately 93.46 trillion yuan in bonds as of the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a growth of about 3.29% from the previous quarter [9][10] - Bank wealth management products have diversified significantly, with total investment assets reaching 32.97 trillion yuan by mid-2025, and a notable increase in their holdings of various ETFs across different asset classes [48][49]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a broad increase last week, with major indices such as the Sci-Tech 50, Small and Medium-sized Board Index, and CSI 500 Index yielding returns of 5.48%, 3.66%, and 3.38% respectively, while the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and ChiNext Index lagged behind with returns of 1.38%, 1.52%, and 2.10% respectively [1] - In terms of trading volume, all major indices except for the Sci-Tech 50 experienced a decline in trading volume last week. The electronic, real estate, and agriculture sectors led in returns with 5.98%, 5.82%, and 4.52% respectively, while banking, comprehensive finance, and pharmaceuticals saw negative returns of -0.64%, -0.58%, and -0.28% respectively [1] Fund Flows - The ETF market experienced a slight net outflow of 1.716 billion yuan last week, with stock ETFs seeing a small net inflow of 2.296 billion yuan and cross-border stock ETFs netting 5.234 billion yuan. Conversely, bond ETFs had a net outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, and money market ETFs saw a net outflow of 8.614 billion yuan [2] - From an index perspective, the securities companies, Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet, and Hong Kong innovative drugs (CNY) saw net inflows of 6.143 billion yuan, 4.848 billion yuan, and 3.555 billion yuan respectively, while the Sci-Tech 50, money market funds, and CSI 300 experienced net outflows of 8.710 billion yuan, 8.614 billion yuan, and 4.224 billion yuan respectively [2][4] ETF Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 1.88%, with the median return for broad-based ETFs in the Sci-Tech sector reaching 4.03%, the highest among sectors. The median return for technology ETFs was 4.38%, also the highest [11] - Specific ETFs such as the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF, Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF, and Sci-Tech Chip ETF saw significant weekly gains of 10.41%, 10.14%, and 9.04% respectively [12][14] Fund Applications - A total of 46 funds were reported last week, indicating a decrease in the number of applications compared to the previous week. The products included 3 FOFs and 3 QDIIs, along with several thematic ETFs [19] Notable News - The Huashang Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Return Fund completed its fundraising on the first day of issuance, raising over 1 billion yuan with a subscription confirmation ratio of 32.95% [20] - E Fund launched the "Index Direct Train" mini-program, which aggregates all issued ETFs and off-market index funds, providing investors with a one-stop index investment service [21]

Group 1 - A-shares have maintained a trading volume exceeding 1 trillion for 60 consecutive trading days, indicating a strong liquidity environment and a sentiment of "funds not easily falling" among fund managers [1] - The central bank's monetary policy stance has shifted to a more cautious approach, with no immediate urgency for further rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, as the GDP growth target for the year has been met [1][2] - The "national team" has adjusted its market intervention strategy, moving from aggressive support to a more balanced approach of "support and pressure," indicating a desire to stabilize market growth without excessive volatility [2][3] Group 2 - The shift in real estate policy towards quality improvement rather than expansion suggests that funds previously allocated to the property market may flow into the stock market, positioning A-shares as a new reservoir for household wealth [3] - The introduction of capital gains tax on overseas investments is likely to incentivize some funds to return to A-shares, as the tax burden on profits from foreign stock markets increases [4] - For A-shares to attract more new capital, improvements in market regulations and the introduction of reliable companies for listing are essential to ensure investors can achieve returns [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model **Construction Idea**: The model monitors the crowdedness levels of industries daily to identify sectors with high or low crowdedness, providing insights into potential investment opportunities or risks[3] **Construction Process**: The model evaluates crowdedness levels for Shenwan Level-1 industry indices based on daily data. It ranks industries by crowdedness levels and tracks changes over time. Specific metrics or formulas are not provided in the report[3] **Evaluation**: Useful for identifying sectors with significant changes in crowdedness, aiding in portfolio allocation decisions[3] - **Model Name**: ETF Premium Z-Score Model **Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates[4] **Construction Process**: The Z-score is calculated using rolling measurements of ETF premium rates. The formula or detailed steps are not explicitly provided in the report[4] **Evaluation**: Effective for detecting arbitrage opportunities but requires caution regarding potential price corrections[4] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided in the report[3] - **ETF Premium Z-Score Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided in the report[4] Quantitative Factors and Construction No specific quantitative factors are mentioned in the report. Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results are mentioned in the report.