Summary of EM Local Rates Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around Emerging Market (EM) local rates, particularly in the context of recent tariff relief between the US and China, which has impacted global growth expectations and risk assets [3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Relief and Market Impact - Positive US-China tariff news has significantly relieved risks to global growth, leading to a more challenging environment for EM local rates as recovery in global growth expectations may temper recent rallies [3][5]. - The recent outperformance of EM local rates, particularly in high-yielders, is expected to face challenges as market pricing stabilizes [4][5]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Expectations - Economists have upgraded growth forecasts for China and regional Asia, alongside increased US growth expectations and reduced recession probabilities [5]. - The Federal Reserve's rate expectations have been pushed out, with a revised higher terminal rate forecast for the European Central Bank (ECB) [5]. Risks and Sensitivities - Low-yielding markets such as Korea, Czechia, Chile, and Poland are identified as more sensitive to potential pressures from US back-end rates, while high-yielders may benefit from pro-cyclical sensitivities [3][16]. - The potential for smaller spillovers from US-specific risks is noted, suggesting that if US rates rise due to inflation concerns, it could represent a greater headwind for EM rates [16]. Recommendations and Positioning - The company has closed its front-end receiver recommendations in India and Korea, indicating a shift in strategy as downside risks to global growth have diminished [3][9]. - There is a belief that the long-end of the curve in high-yielders like Mexico, Hungary, South Africa, and Indonesia may experience flattening due to better cyclical repricing [12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that while EM local rates may face consolidation, positive catalysts such as lower commodity prices, a weaker US Dollar, and improving local flow conditions could sustain outperformance relative to US rates [5][12]. - The long-end flattening in high-yielders is attributed to reduced political uncertainty and potential positive surprises from upcoming budget announcements [12]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need for caution as the market's rapid repricing may leave it vulnerable to disappointments in incoming data [5]. - The analysis includes a detailed examination of the sensitivities of EM local rates to US economic conditions, indicating a complex interplay between global and local factors [16][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of EM local rates, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the evolving market landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Economic Outlook - **Global Growth Forecast**: The global growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up to 2.3% from 2.1% due to a 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs [4][8] - **US Growth Forecast**: The US growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.5 percentage points to 1% Q4/Q4, with a reduction in 12-month recession odds to 35% from 45% [4][8] - **China Growth Forecast**: The growth forecast for China has been raised to 4.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, up from 4.0% and 3.5% previously [4][13] - **UK Growth Forecast**: The UK growth forecast has been increased to 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, reflecting better tariff news and stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP [5][12] Investment Trends - **US Investment Announcements**: Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US over multiple years, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion in capital investment and purchases of American goods [5][6] - **Investment Uplift Estimate**: The estimated uplift to annual investment from these projects is between $30 billion and $135 billion, which is 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP [7] Tariff Implications - **US-China Trade Deal**: The US and China reached a trade deal that includes a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs, leading to a lower effective tariff rate than previously expected [8][11] - **Long-term Tariff Effects**: A 13 percentage point increase in tariffs is projected to lower US real income by around 1% in the long run, with higher tariffs expected to weigh on output and innovation [11][12] Inflation and Economic Indicators - **Core CPI Inflation**: Core CPI inflation increased by 0.24% in April and 2.78% year-over-year, with specific categories showing upward pressure due to tariffs [11] - **Retail Sales and Jobless Claims**: Core retail sales declined by 0.2% in April, and initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000 for the week ending May 10 [12] Regional Economic Updates - **Europe**: The Euro area GDP forecast has been upgraded by 0.2%, with core inflation nudged up to 2.1% in Q4 2025 [12] - **India**: Headline inflation in India is near a six-year low, with a forecast of 1.2% real GDP growth in 2025, up from 1.1% previously [13][14] Additional Insights - **Investment Completion Rates**: Historical data indicates that 80% of announced investment projects were completed, suggesting that not all announced spending may materialize [5][6] - **Sectoral Tariff Flexibility**: The US-UK trade deal maintains a 10% baseline tariff but allows for flexibility on sectoral tariffs, indicating potential changes in trade dynamics [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment outlook.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing impact of tariffs is significantly affecting global freight flows, with a notable shift in sentiment regarding trade with China [1] - A resurgence in trade with China is anticipated, particularly in retail and consumer goods, as shippers prepare for back-to-school and peak season [1] - Trade uncertainty continues to keep shippers in a cautious 'wait and see' mode, particularly regarding the impact of 30% tariffs on demand [4][10] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Observations - Year-over-year (YoY) laden container vessels from China to the US have decreased by -11.1%, showing a sequential increase of approximately 6% from the previous week [15] - TEU imports into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to surge by 16% sequentially next week, but forecasts indicate a potential drop of -41% in vessels two weeks out [4][10] - The report highlights the volatility of weekly data, suggesting that trends should be assessed over a multi-week basis [7] Trade Scenarios for 2025 - Two potential scenarios for 2025 are identified: a surge in pull-forward activity ahead of a 90-day tariff pause, or a slowdown in orders due to uncertainty [8] - The report suggests a shift towards the first scenario, complicating predictions for transport volumes and earnings [9] Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the US have dropped to -7.1% YoY, improving from -17.5% the previous week, indicating a pause in activity after a surge in April [23] - The report notes that container rates remain flat despite expected demand increases from China, possibly due to an oversupply of ships [11] Port Activity and Freight Rates - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles were down -14% YoY, with forecasts indicating a sharp increase of 57% YoY next week, followed by a drop of -35% [42] - The report indicates that intermodal traffic on the West Coast was up 4% on average, reflecting front-loaded traffic from earlier weeks [51] Inventory and Economic Indicators - The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) shows upstream inventory expansion slowing to 57.6 in April from 58.9 in March, while downstream inventory expansion also slowed significantly [74]

Core Viewpoint - B. Riley Securities Holdings, Inc. has provided a business and financial update following its carve-out from B. Riley Financial, Inc., emphasizing a commitment to financial transparency and long-term value creation despite macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, B. Riley Securities reported total revenue of $217.7 million and adjusted net income of $33.1 million, while experiencing a net loss of $14.5 million [4][12]. - The adjusted financials reflect contributions from Cascadia Investments Inc. and other subsidiaries as if they had been completed on January 1, 2024 [5][11]. Debt and Cash Position - The company is now completely debt-free, having repaid all $12.4 million of its outstanding debt, and holds $68 million in cash and securities as of the carve-out effective date [6][5]. Operational Highlights - In 2024, B. Riley Securities raised $16.5 billion in debt and equity for clients and expanded its capabilities in key areas such as Convertibles and Liability Management [3]. - The advisory practice has been realigned to better serve core clients, focusing on Capital Markets [3]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance visibility into its strategy and vision for value creation, positioning itself for sustainable growth and maximizing shareholder value [2][3].

Company Overview - Columbus Circle Capital Corp. I is a blank check company formed to effect mergers, amalgamations, share exchanges, asset acquisitions, share purchases, reorganizations, or similar business combinations with one or more businesses [7] - The management team includes Gary Quin as CEO and Chairman, and Joseph W. Pooler, Jr. as CFO, along with independent directors Garrett Curran, Alberto Alsina Gonzalez, Dr. Adam Back, and Matthew Murphy [7] Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - The company closed its upsized initial public offering of 25,000,000 units, with gross proceeds of $250,000,000, priced at $10.00 per unit [1] - The offering included 3,000,000 units from the partial exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option [1] - Units began trading on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "CCCMU" on May 16, 2025, with each unit consisting of one Class A ordinary share and one-half of one redeemable warrant [2] Financial and Legal Aspects - The proceeds from the IPO and a simultaneous private placement were placed in the company's trust account for the benefit of public shareholders [6] - The registration statement for the offering was declared effective by the SEC on May 15, 2025 [4] - Legal counsel for the company included Ellenoff Grossman & Schole LLP and Ogier (Cayman) LLP, while Loeb & Loeb LLP served as legal counsel to the underwriters [3] Cohen & Company Overview - Cohen & Company Inc. is a financial services company specializing in capital markets and asset management services [8] - The company operates through segments including Capital Markets, Asset Management, and Principal Investing, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and SPAC advisory services [8] - As of March 31, 2025, Cohen & Company had approximately $2.3 billion in assets under management, primarily in fixed income assets [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting the negative impact of increased US tariffs and soft domestic demand, with a Q2 real GDP growth forecast of 5.0% year-on-year appearing on track despite mixed activity data [1][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 6.1% year-on-year in April from 7.7% in March, slightly above market consensus of 5.7% due to trade re-routing [2][10] - Sequentially, IP contracted by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [10] - Output growth in computer-related industries slowed significantly, with smartphone and computer output growth dropping to -6.4% and -2.2% year-on-year, respectively [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March, primarily due to slower infrastructure and property investment growth [11] - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 7.1% year-on-year, while property investment saw a drop of 11.3% year-on-year in April [11] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year in April from 5.9% in March, below market consensus of 5.9% [4][12] - Online goods sales, offline goods sales, and restaurant sales revenue growth moderated to 6.1%, 4.7%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively [13] Services Industry - The Services Industry Output Index growth remained stable at 6.0% year-on-year in April, down from 6.3% in March [14] - Sequentially, the index fell by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [14] Property-Related Activity - Property sales growth slowed to -2.1% year-on-year in April from -1.0% in March, with significant declines in new home starts and completions [15] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.3% year-on-year in April [12][15] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers also decreasing to 4.8% [16]

Investment Rating - The report raises the end-2025 US 10-year yield forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% previously, indicating a bullish outlook on US yields [1][6]. Core Views - The larger and faster de-escalation in US-China tariffs has reduced the downside risks for US growth, prompting a reassessment of yield forecasts [1][6]. - The report suggests that the combination of a smaller mechanical tariff headwind and a reversal in financial conditions supports higher long-term yields [6][31]. - The report maintains a bullish stance on Gilts, expecting a substantial rally at the 10-year point, with long-end risk premiums compressing compared to the US [1][6]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The US 10-year yield forecast has been revised up to 4.5% for year-end 2025, reflecting a reassessment of the US outlook due to tariff reductions [6][31]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a quarterly cadence of cuts starting in December, reaching a terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% by June 2026 [6][31]. - The report anticipates a steeper CAD curve due to a more supportive domestic fiscal backdrop and a revised 10-year yield forecast of 3.50% for Canada by year-end 2025 [13]. Europe - The report indicates that the risks around the European front-end have shifted, with expectations of two more ECB cuts, but a less accommodative path beyond that [14][20]. - The Bund yield forecast remains unchanged at 2.80% for end-2025 and 3.25% for end-2026, reflecting fiscal expectations [14][20]. - The report highlights that the German curve is influenced by risk sentiment and fiscal expectations, with a potential for fiscal expansion to support growth [14][20]. United Kingdom - The UK is showing progress in moving out of the "low-growth, high-inflation" quadrant, with improved fiscal credibility suggesting a better outlook for Gilt risk premia [20][31]. - The report recommends long 10-year Gilts versus USTs, with an entry point of 51 basis points and a target of 10 basis points [20][31]. Japan - The report revises the forecasts for 5-year and 10-year JGB yields up by 20 and 30 basis points, respectively, to 1.3% and 1.8% by end-2025, due to diminished recession risks [25][27]. - The BOJ's normalization cycle is expected to be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5% [31]. Global Outlook - The report emphasizes that global growth concerns will cap Gilt yields in the near term, but ongoing worries about supply and risk premiums remain hurdles [31]. - The report suggests that the macro backdrop of moderate growth and easing policy presents a favorable environment for harvesting vol carry in rates [10][31].

智通财经5月17日电，高盛集团利率策略师们上调2025年年底美国10年期国债收益率预期至4.5%，之前 预计为4%。上调两年期美债收益率预期至3.9%，之前预计为3.3%。 ...

Core Insights - The global investment banking (IB) market is projected to grow from $170 billion in 2023 to $394.2 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.8% [2] - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are both positioned to benefit from this growth, but their near-term prospects are affected by market volatility and economic uncertainty [3][6] JPMorgan Overview - JPMorgan ranks 1 for global IB fees, with total IB fees increasing by 37% to $8.91 billion in 2024 after a decline in previous years [4] - In Q1 2025, JPMorgan's IB fees grew 12% year-over-year to $2.18 billion, driven by advisory fees and debt underwriting income [5] - The long-term outlook for JPMorgan's IB business remains strong, with estimated IB fees expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% by 2027 [6] - The bank's revenue is significantly supported by net interest income, which accounts for nearly 50% of total revenues [7] Morgan Stanley Overview - Morgan Stanley's IB revenues surged 36% to $6.71 billion in the previous year, following declines in earlier years [8] - The first-quarter 2025 IB revenues grew 8% year-over-year, attributed to higher advisory and debt underwriting income [9] - Morgan Stanley maintains a stable M&A pipeline and projects IB fees to grow at a CAGR of 5% by 2027 [11] - The company has diversified into wealth and asset management, which contributed to over 55% of total net revenues in 2024 [11] Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, JPMorgan shares have gained 11.6%, while Morgan Stanley shares have increased by 5.4% [12] - JPMorgan is trading at a forward P/E of 14.36X, while Morgan Stanley's forward P/E is 15.00X, both above the industry average of 13.75X [16][18] - JPMorgan's dividend yield is 2.09%, lower than Morgan Stanley's 2.79%, but both exceed the S&P 500 average of 1.54% [18] Return on Equity and Estimates - JPMorgan's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.88%, higher than Morgan Stanley's 14.98% [20] - For 2025, JPMorgan's revenue is expected to decline by 1.5%, while Morgan Stanley's revenue is projected to increase by 5.4% [21][22] Investment Considerations - JPMorgan offers stability, strong ROE, and a lower valuation multiple, making it suitable for risk-averse investors [26] - Morgan Stanley presents stronger growth potential with higher projected revenue and earnings growth, appealing to growth-oriented investors [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on Chinese stocks within a regional context, favoring domestic-oriented sectors such as Internet, Services, and Banks/Property [2][18]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in retaliatory tariffs, significantly reducing the effective US tariff rate on Chinese goods from 107% to 39% and on US exports to China from 144% to 30% [2][3]. - Following the tariff rollbacks, Chinese equities have fully recovered from a 13% drawdown, with major indices trading 2-4% above early-April highs [2][6]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP growth forecasts for both the US and China, increasing China's real GDP growth expectation for 2025 from 4% to 4.6% [10][12]. - The report projects MSCI China and CSI300 indices to reach targets of 84 and 4,600 respectively over the next 12 months, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [12][13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Developments - The US and China announced a significant rollback of tariffs, with the US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods now at 39% [3][4]. - The extent of the tariff de-escalation was larger than anticipated, with China still facing the highest tariff rates among major US trading partners [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcements, both US and Chinese equities saw positive reactions, with the S&P 500 and MSCI China rallying over 3% [6][10]. - Chinese stocks have outperformed other global markets year-to-date, returning 17% compared to 6% for MSCI EM ex-China and 3% for DM indices [6][10]. Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its economic forecasts, raising the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1% and reducing recession odds to 35% [10][12]. - For China, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been increased to 4.6%, with a slight upward revision for the next year as well [10][12]. Investment Themes - The report emphasizes investment trends that are likely to persist, including a focus on Domestic Stimulus Beneficiaries, EM exporters, and AI proxies [2][18]. - The report suggests that self-help mechanisms have been activated in China to counteract external demand uncertainties, reinforcing the preference for domestic-oriented sectors [18].