Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the industry, with a projected GDP growth slowdown for China to 4.2% in 2025 due to tariff shocks [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant deceleration in economic growth across Asia, particularly in China, driven by external tariff pressures and domestic economic challenges [14][29]. - Consumer confidence has notably weakened, attributed to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, leading to a deteriorating outlook for household spending, especially in tier-1 cities [30][31]. - The report anticipates a phased tariff rollback, which may alleviate some trade pressures, but the overall trade-weighted tariff impact remains substantial [10][12]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP growth is expected to soften meaningfully in Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a new forecast of 4.2% [2][14]. - The report presents a historical context of GDP growth rates, indicating a trend of declining growth [3]. Tariff Impact Analysis - The report details the current US tariffs on Chinese exports, with headline reciprocal tariffs remaining at 60% but trade-weighted tariffs potentially reducing to 34% with exemptions [9][10]. - It discusses the unsustainability of current tariffs and the likelihood of gradual rollbacks amid ongoing trade tensions [10][12]. Consumer Behavior and Confidence - A sharp drop in consumer confidence has been observed, likely due to tariff uncertainties, impacting household spending outlook [29][30]. - The report notes that consumer goods sales have been robust under government trade-in programs, but overall retail sales are under pressure [26][28]. Policy Stimulus Expectations - The report outlines expectations for policy stimulus, including a front-loading of existing policies and potential new stimulus measures in the second half of 2025 [34][36]. - It anticipates a significant fiscal package aimed at consumption and infrastructure investment, with a total of Rmb2 trillion expected in the NPC stimulus package [35][39]. Social Welfare and Economic Rebalancing - The report emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to support household consumption and address the fragmented social safety net [41][43]. - It discusses the potential for increased social welfare spending to help unleash precautionary savings among households [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report provides a base case forecast for various asset classes, indicating a positive outlook for equities, particularly the S&P 500, which is projected to reach 6,500 by Q4 2025, representing a total return of 24.5% [3]. Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high, crossing the $3,300 per troy ounce mark for the first time [7]. - The DXY index has dropped to its lowest level since early 2022, indicating a weakening US dollar [9]. - The JGB 10s30s curve has reached its highest level in 25 years, reflecting significant changes in the Japanese bond market [13]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 6,500 with a total return of 24.5% and a volatility of 19% [3]. - MSCI Europe is expected to reach 2,150 with a return of 9.9% and volatility of 16% [3]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) is projected to decline slightly to 1,050 with a return of 1.1% [3]. Fixed Income - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to decrease to 4.00% with a total return of 7.0% [3]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit is expected to yield an excess return of 2.0% [3]. - US High Yield (HY) credit is projected to yield an excess return of 4.8% [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is expected to decline to $62.5 per barrel, reflecting a -4.0% return [3]. - Copper is projected to increase to $9,300 per ton with a return of 1.1% [3]. - Gold is forecasted to reach $3,500 per troy ounce, indicating a 2.6% return [3]. Currency - The JPY is expected to strengthen slightly to 141, with a return of 2.9% [3]. - The EUR is projected to decline to 1.08, reflecting a -7.3% return [3]. - The GBP is expected to decrease to 1.30, indicating a -2.2% return [3]. Market Sentiment - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, providing insights into cross-asset sentiment and positioning [21]. - Weekly US ETF flows to equities recorded their second lowest print since September of the previous year, indicating cautious investor sentiment [14].

The all-cash deal is expected to close by the end of this year, subject to regulatory approvals. Nomura said it has "identified global asset management as a key strategic growth priority for the organization," adding that this would increase the assets under management of its investment management division to $770 billion, up from the $590 billion currently. Signage for Nomura Holdings Inc. outside the company's Otemachi head office in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Japanese investment bank and ...

中金研究 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是人民币汇率韧性。人民币汇率的韧性为松货币增加了空间。除了传统的松货币工具以外，干预风险溢价是更 值得关注的政策选择，央行的结构性工具目前已经在稳定资本市场上有所尝试。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。 从1971年1月到现在，美国股债汇同时出现明显下跌[1]的月份只有6个，如果4月美股、美债、美元不再大幅变化，2025年的4月将是1971年以来第7 个单月美国股债汇都出现明显下跌的月份。一般来说，美股下跌、美债上涨、美元上涨是投资者更适应的资产变化组合。但如果美国面临的是"滞胀"风 险，同时其他经济可以凭借"非美国"的力量支撑基本面，那么就有可能出现美国股债汇三杀的局面。2022年12月的美国股债汇三杀可以帮助我们理解这一 轮调整的逻辑。 与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the negative impact of US tariffs on emerging market (EM) economies, particularly in Asia, leading to downgraded growth forecasts across various EMs [3][44] - It identifies China, Malaysia, Mexico, Hungary, and Vietnam as the most exposed to tariff turmoil, while Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Argentina, and Poland are likely to be less affected [6][36] - The report anticipates more monetary easing across EMs due to declining inflation and weak growth, with central banks expected to implement front-loaded easing policies [6][47] Summary by Sections EM Macro Navigator Overview - The publication provides an overview of themes, market trends, and events relevant to EM investors, assessing the impact of US tariffs on EM economies [3][9] - It includes country-by-country forecasts, with significant downgrades noted for smaller export-oriented economies in Asia [3][44] Impact of US Tariffs - The US announced significant tariff increases, including a 10% baseline increase and a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, leading to a 15 percentage point increase in the effective US tariff rate [8][9] - The report explores five channels through which tariffs affect EM economies: direct trade effects, trade diversion effects, uncertainty effects, financial conditions/liquidity, and commodity prices [10][22] Country-Specific Forecasts - In China, growth forecasts have been lowered to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, with expectations of policy easing mitigating some impacts [6][46] - Mexico's growth forecast has been revised down from 0.0% to -0.5% in 2025, while significant cuts are noted for Czechia and Hungary due to their reliance on auto production [6][46] Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy - The report indicates a tightening of financial conditions in developed markets, while some EMs have experienced easing due to exchange rate depreciation [25][28] - EM central banks are expected to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with specific forecasts for countries like India, Mexico, and Chile [51][62] Commodity Price Effects - Oil prices have decreased by 15% to $64 per barrel since the tariff announcement, with further declines expected, impacting both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries differently [31][34] - The report highlights that lower commodity prices will have significant negative consequences for oil-exporting countries while benefiting oil-importers [31][34]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a forecasted augmented fiscal deficit for China at 14.5% of GDP by 2025, suggesting a need for aggressive fiscal easing to mitigate the impact of US tariff escalations [2]. Core Insights - Chinese policymakers are expected to implement significant fiscal easing measures to cushion the economic impact from external pressures, particularly from the US [2]. - The report highlights a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts for China and Mexico, reflecting broader economic challenges [9][93]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for China is reported at +4.7% for March, indicating a positive growth signal despite recent adjustments [12][49]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impacts - The fiscal policy impulse on China's real GDP growth is projected to be significant, with estimates indicating a notable effect on growth rates over the next few years [4][79]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal multipliers in assessing the impact of budget deficits on economic growth [4]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed analysis of various economic indicators, including the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and Current Activity Indicators (CAI), which are crucial for understanding the economic landscape [6][46]. - The CAI for global markets shows a mixed performance, with developed markets at +0.9% and emerging markets at +3.7% for March [12][49]. GDP Forecast Adjustments - Significant changes in GDP forecasts have been noted across various regions, with a particular focus on the downward revisions for China and other major economies [93][94]. - The report outlines specific percentage point changes in GDP forecasts, indicating a more cautious outlook for several countries, including a notable decrease for China [93][94].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision in growth projections for Asia, with a specific focus on the impact of tariffs and related uncertainties on the economic outlook [3][29]. Core Insights - Asia's GDP growth is expected to slow sharply from 4.8% in 4Q24 to 3.6% in 4Q25, reflecting a decrease of 120 basis points [5][29]. - The weighted average tariff on Asia has increased significantly from 4.8% in January 2025 to 43.8%, contributing to a decline in trade and corporate confidence [1][13]. - The report emphasizes that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is likely to persist, affecting business cycles and investment decisions across the region [7][28]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Projections - The report forecasts a significant slowdown in Asia's GDP growth, with specific country projections indicating declines, such as China from 5.4% to 3.7% and Hong Kong from 2.4% to 1.2% [5][29]. - The overall GDP growth estimate for Asia is lowered to 4% for 2025, down from 4.4% previously [29]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the escalation of tariffs raises recession risks and has already negatively impacted the business cycle, leading to a wait-and-see approach among corporations [8][31]. - The likelihood of reaching trade deals varies by country, with economies like India, Japan, and Korea being more likely to secure agreements compared to China and Vietnam [10][9]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report anticipates more monetary easing across Asia, with specific measures expected from central banks in response to the economic slowdown [46][49]. - In China, a significant fiscal easing package is expected, while other Asian economies may face constraints due to rising public debt levels [56][57]. Sectoral Analysis - Trade-oriented economies such as Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia are projected to experience sharper slowdowns due to their exposure to tariff impacts [31][32]. - India is viewed as relatively better positioned due to supportive policy measures, although its growth forecast has also been adjusted downward [33][44].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [16]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the core ingredients for a recovery in the industry are present, although a full recovery may take additional time [3]. - There is skepticism regarding the immediate pickup in SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) demand, suggesting that supply will likely remain busy [3]. - The report highlights that the new issue market is expected to remain active as long as ratios stay below 88-90% in 10-year bonds [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The estimated three-week gross supply is projected at $30 billion, with a bull-bear range of $25-32 billion [7]. - Dealer balances are reported to be above average, likely increasing by a few percent week-over-week [7]. - Bid wanted activity is expected to remain heavy, estimated at $1-2 billion per day [7]. Market Conditions - The report notes that ratios are up and yields are higher, with some bonds offering 5% coupons at par [7]. - High levels of rate volatility are likely to keep dealers cautious, as investors express unease over market volatility [7]. - A week without major headlines is deemed necessary to calm investor sentiment [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Investors should prepare for continued market volatility and hold their convictions loosely while maintaining tight stop-losses [1] - The narrative around the global outlook has shifted, with expectations for the EUR to strengthen against the USD, targeting 1.20 [4][61] - Tariffs are raising prices and harming consumer confidence, which may lead to adverse economic impacts before any easing from the Federal Reserve takes effect [10][62] - The supply of global fixed income safe havens is at multi-decade lows, while demand for them is at local highs [10][32] - A gradual reduction in foreign investor exposure to US equities is observed, while fixed income exposure remains stable [46][71] Summary by Sections Global Macro Strategy - The US administration's trade policy is causing uncertainty, and the perceived 'master plan' may not effectively mitigate economic pain from tariffs [11][12] - Consumer and CEO confidence have declined, indicating potential economic slowdown [13][22] US Rates Strategy - Concerns about liquidity in funding markets are rising, with pressures expected to persist due to tax collections [6][62] - The report suggests staying short on certain securities as market conditions remain fragile [59] Euro Area Rates Strategy - A shift to a received 5y5y real yield position is recommended, as Europe is viewed as a safer haven asset [5][60] G10 FX Strategy - A new tracker for US outflows from foreign investors has been introduced, indicating a trend of reduced exposure to US equities [7][44] - The DXY is expected to decline as foreign investors continue to reduce their US asset exposure, particularly benefiting the EUR [44][71] Safe Haven Analysis - The report highlights a significant drop in AAA/Aaa rated bonds globally, exacerbated by the recent downgrade of US long-term debt [32][33] - Investors have fewer safe-haven options outside US Treasuries, which may become more pronounced if the macro environment deteriorates [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - Evercore (EVR) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a consensus estimate of $1.60 per share, reflecting a decrease of 24.9% compared to the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The expected revenues for the upcoming quarter are $586.82 million, which is a slight decrease of 0.1% from the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 34.25% over the last 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Evercore is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. - Evercore currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, suggesting a weak outlook for beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Evercore exceeded the expected earnings of $2.90 per share by delivering $3.41, resulting in a positive surprise of 17.59% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Investment Considerations - While an earnings beat can influence stock movement, other factors may also play a significant role in determining stock performance [14]. - The combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a low Zacks Rank makes it challenging to predict a positive earnings surprise for Evercore [11][16].