摘要 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月28日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 铜： 美元指数隔夜大跌，创出近4年以来新低，特朗普对于美元的表态 进一步加剧了市场对美元未来弱势的担忧，另外近期日元对美元的 大幅走强也使得美元指数被动承压，黄金受此影响再创新高，金铜 比继续走高，有望对铜价形成提振。近期利空频传叠加需求端季节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment, suggesting cautious operation. - Medium - to long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. Nickel - Short - term, the impact of supply - side disturbances is gradually digested. Before the results are clear, sentiment provides support but the unilateral driving force weakens. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the main contract referring to 140,000 - 150,000 [3]. Stainless Steel - Recently, cost support is strengthened. The social inventory shows a trend of de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract referring to 14,000 - 15,000. Attention should be paid to news from the ore end and the improvement in demand [6]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the disk may adjust. It is expected that the price will remain in a relatively strong range. The main contract refers to 160,000 - 175,000. Prudent operation is recommended, paying attention to over - valuation and liquidity risks [9]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the expectation of price oscillation. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in industrial silicon production and demand - side output [11]. Polysilicon - In February, polysilicon production is expected to decrease. In the weak demand background, pay attention to the production reduction process and price quotation changes of enterprises. During the cooling period, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Copper - In the short term, the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory. The main contract focuses on the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [13][14]. Zinc - The downside space of the short - term price may be limited. Pay attention to changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory. The main contract focuses on the support around 24,000 [16]. Alumina - The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - In the long - term, the price is expected to remain in a relatively strong pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the short - term, there is a risk of high - level correction. Mid - to long - term, the core strategy is to buy on dips [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.91% to 436,600 yuan/ton; import loss widened by 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81% to 17,637 tons; refined tin exports increased by 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in December. Demand from solder enterprises was under pressure, with large enterprises having relatively stable orders and small and medium - sized enterprises facing more significant order reduction [2]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.35% to 146,100 yuan/ton; futures import profit increased by 204.00% to 338 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in January increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 5.43% to 50,794 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, while demand from the stainless steel end was weak during the off - season, and demand from the ternary material end increased [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 57.69% to 205 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in January increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; stainless steel net exports increased by 15.96% to 34.00 million tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to pre - holiday production cuts by steel mills, and demand was weak [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.29% to 172,000 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 180.56% to 5,720 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99,200 tons; total inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56,664 tons [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance by salt plants, while demand maintains a certain resilience [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.13% to 8,760 yuan/ton; the basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 1000.00% to 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory increased by 0.18% to 55.60 million tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand weakened slightly in January, with a slight inventory build - up [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of polysilicon decreased by 2.11% to 50,805 yuan/ton; the basis widened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, polysilicon production increased by 0.79% to 11.55 million tons; silicon wafer production decreased by 19.26% to 43.90 GM [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand improved slightly due to export rush, but silicon wafers and silicon materials were still under pressure. Production cuts are expected to increase in February [12]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.29% to 101,660 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 226.15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.08% to 71.86 million tons [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years. Domestic downstream开工率 has recovered, but the spot market remains in a discount structure [13][14]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.94% to 25,240 yuan/ton; import loss decreased by 80.16 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons; Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.26% to 11.68 million tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply pressure eased, demand from the processing industry recovered significantly after the zinc price correction, and inventory had room for replenishment [16]. Alumina - **Price and Basis**: Alumina futures were strong, but the spot market was pressured by high inventory [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry开工率 decreased slightly, and the market - wide inventory decreased by about 34,000 tons this week [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, but the implicit inventory was still large, and demand did not improve fundamentally [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of aluminum reached a record high of 25,680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased steadily, and the inventory inflection point had appeared and entered the accumulation cycle [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Strong expectations clashed with weak reality, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The AD - AL spread widened to a record extreme of - 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The industry开工率 remained at a low level of about 58%, and social inventory decreased slightly to about 47,500 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was under pressure, and demand was weak, with a pattern of high prices but few transactions [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors is supported by factors such as geopolitical situations, policy environments, and supply - demand dynamics. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, and the prices of other metals also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical situation led to a rise in gold and copper prices. LME copper 3M closed up 0.74% to $13,120/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,430 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 148,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong was large, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot narrowed to about 400 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4] - **Strategy View**: Precious metals continue to rise, and strategic resource demand is strengthened. The copper ore supply is tight, and the refined copper demand is seasonally weak. Global visible inventory continues to increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to rise slightly. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,500 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - $13,500/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the escalation of the US - Iran issue and the strengthening of the equity market, aluminum prices rose significantly. LME aluminum closed up 1.59% to $3,263/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 25,330 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME price difference narrowed. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 93,000 to 810,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 143,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, but the transaction was dull. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 500,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The large increase in aluminum positions has increased price volatility. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but high prices suppress downstream demand. LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. In the context of loose domestic and foreign policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 25,000 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,220 - $3,320/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed flat at 17,016 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S fell $7 to $2,025.5/ton, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 211,200 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. Primary lead production has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and secondary lead smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventory of smelting plants and social lead ingot inventory have both increased, showing a weak industrial situation. However, due to the impact of winter cooling on scrap battery transportation, the raw materials for secondary lead smelting have tightened, and the profit of secondary lead smelting calculated on a spot - order basis is under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.62% to 25,615 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 240,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose $82 to $3,413/ton, with a total position of 234,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,240 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 26 was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have improved slightly, and the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data announced on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data, so short - term bullish sentiment has retreated. However, the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the costs of European smelters, leading to an increase in LME zinc prices. In addition, the current zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, and zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 28, tin prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions recovered from maintenance, and there were both constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price wait - and - see attitudes, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the rigid - demand restocking demand was released intensively. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous Friday [14] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by the capital game in the futures market. Against the background of the strong trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - $58,000/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 28, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 144,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,750 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, and that of 1.2% grade was $23/wet ton. The price of nickel iron fluctuated upward, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,053 yuan/nickel point [16] - **Strategy View**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,830 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous working day. Among them, the price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 163,500 - 175,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 850 yuan (- 0.50%) from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 - 172,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 166,280 yuan, a decrease of 7.42% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, most commodities rose, but lithium carbonate was weak, rising first and then falling back to erase the previous day's gains. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, the number of profit - taking orders increased. The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the off - season destocking provides strong support. Downstream raw material inventory is limited, and it is expected that the bargaining power is not high. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, and the exchange adheres to the main tone of strict supervision. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 156,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on January 28, 2026, the alumina index rose 2.8% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 647,300 lots, a decrease of 14,900 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 256 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 81 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 159,100 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by $0.5/ton to $61.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton [22] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. It is expected that the ore price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expired warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% (- 75) on the day, with a unilateral position of 295,000 lots, a decrease of 8,706 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi market remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 415 (+ 25), and the Wuxi basis was - 165 (+ 75). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was 1,055 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. According to the data on January 23, the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, among which the inventory of 300 - series was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [25] - **Strategy View**: Last week, the stainless - steel market was active in trading, and prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the expansion of the nickel - stainless - steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity has shifted to the production of high - grade nickel matte with better profits, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. In addition, the futures warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the stainless - steel market shows a structural supply shortage in the short term, and the near - month contracts continue to strengthen. In terms of inventory, although the downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. On Friday, market news showed that the port logistics of the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park may be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. Overall, the expectation of tight supply on the raw material side has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the future, but the fluctuation may be large, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose significantly. The main AD2603 contract closed up 3.17% to 23,785 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm), the weighted contract position increased to 22,100 lots, the trading volume was 34,100 lots, and the trading volume reached a new high since listing. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.01 to 67,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,855 yuan/ton, which widened significantly month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 increased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 0.02 to 41,500 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply - side disturbance continues, providing strong support for prices. However, the demand is relatively average. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [29]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector has strengthened again, with companies such as Yiqiu Resources and Chang Aluminum achieving consecutive gains [1] - Dingsheng New Materials has reached the daily limit increase, while Zinc Industry Co. and Tongling Nonferrous Metals are close to hitting the limit [1] - Other companies like Zhuhai Group and Pengxin Resources have also shown significant gains [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as the copper fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand. For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. In the case of zinc, although the domestic fundamentals are average, the market is optimistic about its price increase due to limited long - term capital investment and potential supply disruptions. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a game between short - term policies and fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17600 next week. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face significant downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes. Industrial silicon's price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand is close to balance in January, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur later [1][2][7][12][14][16][19][22][24]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the spot import profit increased by 630.87, and the LME inventory increased by 1575. The copper price dropped to test the 99,000 support level during the week and then rose significantly on Friday night [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to LME or outflow from the US. However, global consumption is strong, and copper has strong rigid demand support. In China, the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival inventory reduction may also be rapid. The medium - term outlook for copper prices is bullish [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 390, and the LME inventory decreased by 2275. The aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are still low, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: In December 2026, automobile consumption was below expectations and is expected to decline further after the subsidy is withdrawn. However, the photovoltaic installation volume increased better than expected, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting, providing short - term support for domestic demand. The LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, and the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 480, and the LME inventory decreased by 175. The domestic zinc supply is tight in the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, and the smelting profit is supported by high sulfuric acid and silver prices [6][7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The export window was opened in December 2025, and the import window is currently closed. The market is optimistic about zinc's price increase, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [7]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 2400, and the LME inventory increased by 612. The pure nickel production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand is weak. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME inventory has remained stable [11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies (such as Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and the plan to cut nickel ore quotas) and fundamentals [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100. The steel mill production is maintained at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of nickel iron has stabilized slightly, and the chromium iron price has remained unchanged. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level, and the warehouse receipts have remained stable [13][14]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short term [14]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the LME inventory decreased by 2000. The primary lead production is driven by profit, and the recycled lead has resumed production after environmental inspections. The battery demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, with inventory accumulation starting in the second week [15][16]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17600 next week, and the scrap battery price - holding sentiment will weaken as the lead price falls [16]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the LME inventory decreased by 25. The tin price has oscillated upward, and it is favored by long - position funds due to the resource - country disturbances and AI consumption growth expectations. The domestic inventory has slightly increased due to the delivery of leading enterprises, and the overseas LME inventory has oscillated upward [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the domestic fundamentals are not weak, and tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter. In the long term, 2026 is a year with a large - scale supply recovery, and there may be significant downward fluctuations in the second half of the year if the macro situation changes [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the production in the southwest region is at a low level, and the production in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The overall monthly supply has continued to shrink, and it is expected to be less than 400,000 tons in January [22]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to oscillate with cost. In the long term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large - scale over - supply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 22 to 28, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 500. The price on the futures market has been strong, driven by the expected production suspension in Jiangxi and the larger - than - expected inventory reduction and upstream maintenance. The raw material inventory of most non - integrated lithium salt plants is relatively sufficient, and the lithium salt plant's processing fee has further increased [24]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the supply and demand in January is close to balance, and the actual inventory reduction is greatly affected by the maintenance intensity. The inventory in the upstream and downstream is low, and the intermediate link accounts for a high proportion. The price is greatly affected by the futures market expectations and sentiment. A spot - futures resonance market may occur if the expectations cool down or the intermediate - link inventory reaches a low level [24].

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（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.32%，沪铜收涨0.18%，沪铝收涨1.87%，沪锌收涨0.42%，沪铅收涨 0.06%，沪镍收跌0.40%，沪锡收跌0.47%。氧化铝夜盘收涨1.81%，铝合金收涨0.19%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 0.21%。 ...

证券日报网讯1月28日，中色股份（000758）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月20日， 公司股东总数为109305户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baowu Magnesium Industry has evolved into a high-tech enterprise integrating mining, non-ferrous metal smelting, and recycling processing, focusing on the production and deep processing of magnesium and aluminum alloy materials [1] Company Overview - Baowu Magnesium Industry, originally Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co., Ltd., was established in 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2007 [1] - The company has over 30 years of development experience and operates a complete industrial chain from "dolomite mining - primary magnesium smelting - magnesium alloy melting - magnesium alloy precision casting and deformation processing - magnesium alloy recycling" [1] Product and Application - Main products include magnesium alloys, magnesium alloy die-castings, aluminum alloys, aluminum extruded micro-channel flat tubes, aluminum extruded automotive structural components, intermediate alloys, and metallic strontium [1] - Products are primarily used in automotive, electric bicycle lightweighting, consumer electronics, and construction sectors [1] Competitive Advantage - The complete industrial chain optimizes the company's product cost structure and enhances its risk resistance capability, allowing stable product supply to customers [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Silver Industry has surged with seven consecutive trading limits, despite the company projecting a loss of 4.5 to 6.75 billion for the year 2025 [1][2] - The company's silver business only accounted for 4.54% of its revenue, with copper being the main business [2] - The gold business contributed nearly 20% of the revenue, aligning with the recent rise in precious metal prices [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic instability has made gold and silver attractive as safe-haven assets, leading to increased speculation in stocks related to silver [2] - Despite the stock price rally, the company's financial performance has been poor, with a loss of 2.15 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The market sentiment is divided, with some investors believing in further price increases due to the precious metals trend, while others are concerned about high valuations amid ongoing losses [2]