Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Industrial silicon supply increased in October, with a larger supply increase and a risk of inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. There are no effective regulatory measures to reduce supply for now, and it is expected that production will decline in November when some enterprises in Southwest China reduce production during the dry - season. However, considering the possible increase in raw material costs and the rise in electricity prices in November, the price center is expected to move up. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to around 8000 yuan/ton, buying on dips can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 13 compared to October 10. The basis of these types of industrial silicon decreased, with the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreasing by 15.69%, SI4210 by 55.81%, and Xinjiang 99 silicon by 12.44% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 66.67%, 2511 - 2512 by 6.49%, 2512 - 2601 by 30.00%, 2602 - 2603 by 250.00%, while the spread between 2601 - 2602 decreased [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, with Xinjiang increasing by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons, Yunnan by 2.41% to 5.95 million tons, and Sichuan decreasing by 1.49% to 5.29 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports increased by 3.56% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.07%, Yunnan by 7.69%, Sichuan by 2.75%. Social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.50 million tons, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1.14%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.30% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In October, polysilicon faces increased supply pressure, with production increasing while downstream production scheduling has not increased synchronously, so there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the futures price is at a discount, and the pressure of warehouse receipts has decreased. However, if the inventory pressure persists, the pressure of warehouse receipts may increase in the future. The demand side has not shown significant improvement. Attention can be paid to the changes in export tax - rebate policies and the increase in fourth - quarter installations. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. As supply pressure increases, prices may be under pressure, but if the spot price is firm, there will still be strong support below. Downstream enterprises can pay attention to the opportunity of purchasing on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.38% to 52750 yuan/ton, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 11.85%. The prices of some other products remained unchanged [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "consecutive one - consecutive two" increasing by 14.65%, and the spreads between some other contracts increasing by 400.00% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 6.89% to 12.83 GM, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.32% to 3.10 million tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons, imports decreased by 14.02%, exports increased by 40.12%, and net exports increased by 105.68%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37% to 59.05 GM, imports increased by 74.18%, exports increased by 43.95%, and net exports increased by 41.88%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.19% to 24.00 million tons, silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.39% to 16.78 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2.95% to 7900 lots [2]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View On the supply side, there has been rainfall in overseas production areas, and raw material prices have been firm. However, as the rainfall is expected to improve, the supply is expected to increase, and raw material prices may weaken. On the demand side, before the "National Day" holiday, the domestic tire market was stable. The trading of semi - steel tires was dull, and the social inventory was sufficient with slow consumption. The trading of all - steel tires was average, and there was no obvious pre - holiday stocking. Affected by the US tariff policy on Friday night, commodity prices were generally weak, but the macro - sentiment recovered later, and the rubber price on Monday increased slightly compared to Friday night. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak production season in the main production areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, the price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to be around 15500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex decreased by 2.40%, the full - latex basis decreased by 3.76%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.03%, and the non - standard price difference increased by 13.27%. The price of cup rubber increased by 1.58%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.56% [4]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 9 - 1 increased by 250.00%, and the spread between 1 - 5 decreased by 62.50% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, China's production increased by 12.20%, and India's production increased by 11.11%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76%. Domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, tire exports decreased by 5.46%, natural rubber imports increased by 9.68%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.42% [4]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1.68%. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in general trade increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Soda ash: It is trending weakly, with inventory accumulating significantly during the long holiday. The mid - stream delivery inventory also increased. The market is affected by the news and macro - factors, and the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium term, the downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds can be continued. - Glass: The production and sales are sluggish, and the market quotation is still weak. The market is trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental oversupply. The mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the medium and long term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess capacity. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, attention should be paid to the spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - **Glass**: The prices in East China decreased by 1.49%, the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 20.19%. - **Soda ash**: The price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%, the price of the 2505 contract increased by 0.30%, and the 05 - contract basis decreased by 12.50% [7]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 1.16%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.74%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [7]. Real - estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7]. Report on Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The fundamentals of logs have not changed significantly, and there is no obvious driving force in supply and demand. The near - month contracts fell sharply due to the news that the exchange was discussing the delivery - location premium and discount, while the far - month contracts were relatively strong. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the market. The current market price is near the import cost and lower than the delivery cost. It is recommended to allocate more on the 01 - contract below the import cost [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log - futures contract decreased by 18 yuan to 803 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong at 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu at 780 yuan/cubic meter [8]. Supply - The national coniferous log inventory as of October 10 was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log - arriving ships this week is 13, an increase of 6 from the previous week, and the arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from the previous week [8]. Demand - As of October 10, the daily log outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 830,000 cubic meters from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Glass Section Summary Price Changes - The price of 5mm large glass plates in Shahe area decreased, with Shahe Safety's 5mm large plate dropping from 1241.0 on October 9th to 1198.0 on October 13th, a weekly decrease of 43.0 [2]. - FG05 contract price decreased from 1338.0 to 1313.0, a weekly decrease of 25.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1218.0 to 1179.0, a weekly decrease of 39.0 [2]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory's glass production and sales were weak, but the low - price sales of Shahe traders improved slightly, with a sales rate of 63. Hubei's production and sales rate was 69, East China's was 84, and South China's was 96 [2]. Profit and Cost - North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 302.3 to 272.1, a weekly decrease of 30.2; North China's coal - fired cost increased from 891.7 to 900.9, a weekly increase of 9.2 [2]. - South China's natural gas glass profit remained at - 188.1, while North China's natural gas glass profit decreased from - 150.7 to - 175.9, a weekly decrease of 25.2 [2]. Soda Ash Section Summary Price Changes - The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1180.0 on October 9th to 1160.0 on October 13th, a weekly decrease of 20.0; SA05 contract price decreased from 1344.0 to 1336.0, a weekly decrease of 8.0 [2]. - SA01 contract price decreased from 1250.0 to 1247.0, a weekly decrease of 3.0; SA09 contract price decreased from 1409.0 to 1406.0, a weekly decrease of 3.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 211.4 to - 197.1, a weekly increase of 14.3; North China's combined - soda process profit increased from - 234.5 to - 219.2, a weekly increase of 15.3 [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash factory inventories are accumulating [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a dull and stable trend, with relatively firm prices. The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The domestic soda ash output was 77.08 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.66 thousand tons, a decline of 0.85%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The supply was affected by individual enterprise short - stops, and the demand was weakly stable, with good spot - futures transactions after the holiday [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of October 9, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The supply of soda ash this week is expected to remain at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 88 + %. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the soda - ammonia method was - 76.50 yuan/ton, and that by the ammonia - soda method was - 29.25 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the photovoltaic glass industry, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of sample enterprises rose to 114.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.33%, and the average inventory days were 22.67 days, an increase of 8.17 days compared with September 25. In the float glass industry, as of October 9, the average operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged week - on - week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase. The output is expected to run steadily [16]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The inventory of light soda ash was 73.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.24 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 92.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75 million tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of October 10, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 956,961, an increase of 48,812, and the short positions were 1,241,366, an increase of 112,518. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月13日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1230 | 1240 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1340 | 1340 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | TC/HP | | 玻璃2505 | 1334 | 1338 | -4 | -0.30% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1407 | 1407 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 05 # 7 | -104 | -d8 | -6 | -6.12% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market. Although the supply side has slightly contracted, it has failed to effectively reverse the situation of loose supply and demand. The market is expected to lack upward momentum, and the market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [9][40]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies in the single - side trading, conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and shorting on soda ash, and considering a bear spread option combination [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons or 0.85% from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 342,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 428,700 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons [7][10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09% (unchanged), the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points, and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 90.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday (September 29). Light soda ash inventory was 739,100 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 920,700 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 9, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 710,900 tons, a decrease of 14.25% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 92.23%, a decrease of 14.41 percentage points [18]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of raw salt and coke was stable, and the soda ash price remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated at a low level [21]. - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cost increased, while the soda ash price was stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of October 9, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 3rd. The weekly production of national float glass was 1.1289 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [28]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous period [29]. 3. Spot Market Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the report, only the names of relevant price trend charts are provided, including domestic light soda ash price trend, domestic heavy soda ash price trend, and soda ash basis trend [34][36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side contracted slightly, but weak demand was the core contradiction. After the National Day holiday, enterprise inventory increased significantly, especially the inventory pressure of light soda ash increased, indicating weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. - The demand side was weak, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking as needed. New orders were average, resulting in a significant decline in the shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash enterprises this week. The industry's profit situation was still poor, and enterprises lacked the motivation to raise prices. - In the short term, high inventory and weak demand will continue to suppress the market. The market is expected to lack upward momentum and will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [40].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1140左右，送到沙河1160左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存累积，交割库小累，整体累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1190 1241 1190 1150 1099 1103 1207 1334 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(10/10） 昨日(10/9） 一周前(9/30） 一月前(9/10） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term outlook is weakly oscillating, and medium - term is an oscillating market. The short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real estate market. However, the undetermined anti - deflation and anti - involution policies prevent excessive bearishness. The manufacturer's inventory is not at a high level, so the spot price decline may be slow, and the basis is no longer weak [2]. -纯碱: The trend is weakly downward. The long - standing issues of high production and high inventory are worsening. Either significant production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market to drive positive feedback are needed. If the glass industry does not continue to improve and no substantial anti - involution measures are implemented for soda ash, the market will be oscillating or the price will be weak [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of October 9, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 3rd. The weekly output from October 3 - 9, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, a 0.11% increase from the previous week and a 0.98% decrease year - on - year. The short - term production reduction space is limited, and the production capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 161,000 tons per day, and the peak production capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day [2][16]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,210 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of new ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total potential daily melting volume of old production line restarts was 10,730 tons; and the total potential daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 8,100 tons per day [9][10][11]. Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 11.0 days, a 4.9% increase from the previous period and a 19.0% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders are mainly concentrated in engineering orders, with a scheduling period of 15 - 30 days and some up to 60 days. The deep - processing price has a plan to increase after the festival, but the market is cautious about the price increase, and the actual price exploration needs further observation. The increase in the raw glass price has also made some deep - processing enterprises more cautious in accepting orders [2]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 3.469 million heavy - box increase from the previous period, a 5.85% increase from the previous period and a 6.76% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, 1.3 days more than the previous period. During the National Day, due to downstream holidays and rainfall, the inventory in the North China region generally increased. The East China market had inventory accumulation, and the Central China market's inventory increased compared to the end of September. The South China market's inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. Price and Profit - The price in the Shahe area is around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in the Hubei area of Central China, it is around 1,190 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in some large factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas of East China, it is around 1,340 - 1,400 yuan per ton. Recently, the spot price has changed little, the basis and the spread between different contract months have strengthened. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 61 yuan per ton, the profit of using natural gas is - 151 yuan per ton, and the profit of using coal is 95 yuan per ton [23][25][32]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating upwards. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 13 yuan per square meter, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is around 20 yuan per square meter, both remaining flat compared to the previous period [47][49]. - Capacity and Inventory: The capacity has changed little recently, the trading has improved, and the inventory has declined. The number of national photovoltaic glass in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 14.65 days, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [51][52][60]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a 6,600 - ton decrease from the previous week (September 26 - October 2, 2025), a 0.85% decline. The production of light soda ash was 342,100 tons, a 38,000 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the production of heavy soda ash was 428,700 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. Some maintenance devices have resumed production, and the production has rebounded. The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is around 430,000 tons per week [3][63][68]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.4%, down from 89.12% last week. There are still pressures from new production capacity in the later stage [65]. Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.66 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a 17,500 - ton increase from the previous period [71][73]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in the Shahe and Hubei areas are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The market price has changed little. The basis and the spread between different contract months show that the near - term contracts are under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 37 yuan per ton [81][85][88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - **Core Contradictions**: There are policy expectations (such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and environmental protection) and cost increase expectations for the far - month, which cannot be falsified for now. The near - term reality is average, with mediocre production and sales, and the mid - stream's inventory reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - **Lido Interpretation**: Cost still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. - **Risks Interpretation**: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream承接力, and uncertainty about peak - season performance. There is still an expectation of glass production line ignition [2]. - **Summary of Glass Situation**: On the fundamental side, the upper and middle - stream inventories of glass are at a high level, and weak real - world demand limits price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, with high mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei and weak phased restocking ability. In terms of valuation, there are still profits for coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and the willingness to ignite may increase if prices rise [4]. - **Summary of Soda Ash Situation**: The second phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and entered the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash continues. The downstream of light and heavy soda ash mainly conducts rigid restocking, and the upper - stream alkali plants are reducing inventories at a high level, with some relief of plant pressure. The expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass products has been reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, with no expectation of weakening, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. However, soda ash exports in August exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent. High overall inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit soda ash prices, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [4]. 3. Content Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - **Glass**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 31.16% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 81.8% [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.56% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 26.4% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1400 yuan/ton, and sell call options (FG601C1300) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Glass Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton, and sell put options (FG601P1100) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high - level finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at a 50% ratio when the price is 50 - 60 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Procurement Management**: For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% ratio when the price is 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at a 50% ratio when the price is 40 - 50 yuan to lock in procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Glass Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1334, 1407, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 4, 0, and - 11 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.9% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash Futures Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1332, 1406, and 1240 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 12, - 3, and - 10 yuan/ton and daily change rates of - 0.89%, - 0.21%, and - 0.8% respectively [7]. - **Glass Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.8 yuan/ton. Regional prices in North China, Northwest China, and Shandong increased slightly [6]. - **Soda Ash Spot Price**: On October 10, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained mostly stable, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [9].

1. Glass Report 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 1.2 Core Viewpoints - In September, the spot glass market operated steadily. Traditional peak - season demand warmed up slightly, and inventory decreased. The policy signal of banning new capacity boosted market sentiment, leading to price hikes and increased sales - to - production ratios. However, real - estate data showed a downward trend in housing sales, and glass demand was unlikely to improve significantly. In October, supply fluctuations are expected to be limited, and the market will focus on capacity elimination policies. It is recommended to operate with caution [12][13]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1220 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1228 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton week - on - week. - The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 151.27 yuan/ton, up 13.57 yuan/ton; with coal was 95.07 yuan/ton, up 1.04 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke was 61.37 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The weekly output of national float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. - The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.5 tons, up 0.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00%. In 2024 from January to August, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 57303.92 million square meters, down 4.70% year - on - year; in August, it was 5744.15 million square meters, down 10.98% year - on - year. In August, automobile production and sales were 281.54/285.66 million vehicles, up 12.96%/16.44% year - on - year; from January to August, cumulative production and sales were 2105.10/2112.80 million vehicles. - The national float glass factory inventory was 5935.5 million heavy boxes, down 155.3 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 296.4 million heavy boxes, down 8.08 million heavy boxes [12]. 1.3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of September 30, 2025, the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread was - 118 yuan/ton (+9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 73 yuan/ton (- 7), the 09 - 01 spread was 191 yuan/ton (- 2), and the open interest was 1.7939 million lots [17][20]. 1.3.3 Profit and Cost - The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 151.27 yuan/ton, up 13.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 95.07 yuan/ton, up 1.04 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke was 61.37 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [26][29]. 1.3.4 Supply and Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.5 tons, up 0.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00%. In 2024 from January to August, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 57303.92 million square meters, down 4.70% year - on - year; in August, it was 5744.15 million square meters, down 10.98% year - on - year. In August, automobile production and sales were 281.54/285.66 million vehicles, up 12.96%/16.44% year - on - year; from January to August, cumulative production and sales were 2105.10/2112.80 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 1.3.5 Inventory - As of September 30, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 5935.5 million heavy boxes, down 155.3 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 296.4 million heavy boxes, down 8.08 million heavy boxes [46]. 2. Soda Ash Report 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core Viewpoints - In September, the domestic soda ash market showed a weak and volatile pattern, lacking strong drivers. At the beginning of the month, the market was weak; in the middle, supply shrank due to short - term shutdowns and pre - holiday stocking, and market sentiment improved. At the end of the month, supply became more abundant, and demand weakened, but low inventory and pending orders supported prices. In October, supply is expected to remain abundant, and manufacturers will focus on reducing inventory. The market is expected to be volatile and weak [56][57]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1278 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. - The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 97.2 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 115.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 706 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest was 205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. - The weekly output of soda ash was 77.69 tons, up 3.12 tons month - on - month, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.12%. The output of heavy soda ash was 43.01 tons, up 1.24 tons month - on - month; the output of light soda ash was 34.68 tons, up 1.88 tons month - on - month. - As of September 27, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August was 3.1 million tons. - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons; the available inventory days were 13.69 days, down 0.87 days. The heavy - soda ash factory inventory was 92.24 tons, down 8.37 tons; the light - soda ash factory inventory was 72.91 tons, down 2.04 tons [56]. 2.3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of September 30, 2025, the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (+1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (- 11), the 09 - 01 spread was 150 yuan/ton (+10), and the open interest was 1.7939 million lots [61][64]. 2.3.3 Profit and Cost - The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 97.2 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 115.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 706 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest was 205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 2.3.4 Supply and Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.69 tons, up 3.12 tons month - on - month, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.12%. The output of heavy soda ash was 43.01 tons, up 1.24 tons month - on - month; the output of light soda ash was 34.68 tons, up 1.88 tons month - on - month. As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August was 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 2.3.5 Inventory - As of September 30, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons; the available inventory days were 13.69 days, down 0.87 days. The heavy - soda ash factory inventory was 92.24 tons, down 8.37 tons; the light - soda ash factory inventory was 72.91 tons, down 2.04 tons [91][94].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1140左右，送到沙河1170左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存累积，交割库小累，整体累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1194 1241 1194 1150 1100 1109 1218 1338 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(10/9） 昨日(9/30） 一周前(9/29） 一月前(9/9） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 ...