Report Overview - Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to fluctuate [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: There are limited fundamental changes; attention should be paid to market sentiment [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Monitor when long-short spread trading funds exit [2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650 yuan, down 3,060 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,335 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 5 [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for Russian nickel imports [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 99,300 yuan, up 12,720 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose, and a lithium concentrate auction was held [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 9,390 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5. The PS2601 closing price was 54,625 yuan/ton, up 1,165 yuan from T - 5 [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: A Turkish - German joint venture plans to build a solar cell and silicon wafer factory [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16]

1. Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up in factories and mid - stream delivery warehouses. The supply is in excess compared to current demand, and without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [1]. - Glass manufacturers' sales have improved, but the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Pay attention to spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased, with drops ranging from 0.85% to 3.28%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable. Glass futures prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while soda ash futures prices rose slightly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and weekly output increased by 3.37% to 77.08 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16% to 16.13 million tons, and PV daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 6282.40 ten - thousand heavy boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 165.98 million tons [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices first rose on news of a company's production cut and then fell back. In October, supply increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. However, considering cost factors and the approaching dry season, prices may move up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices if the 11 - contract price drops to 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of most industrial silicon varieties remained unchanged, and basis differences decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread dropping by 97.30% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3.12% to 56.20 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7.15% to 31.55 million tons [2]. 3. Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Polysilicon futures prices fell after opening on Monday, possibly due to some funds taking profits. The continuous increase in polysilicon warehouse receipts pressured the November contract price. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to increased supply. Whether the increased production can be digested by demand in the fourth - quarter peak - installation season will significantly affect prices. The price is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side orders. The supply in Southwest China will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices. Guard against the risk of inventory accumulation if demand is lower than expected [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of most polysilicon and related products remained stable. The main contract price of futures decreased by 3.82% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 11.85% to 14.35 GM, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons. Polysilicon imports increased by 28.46%, and exports decreased by 28.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 5.42% to 25.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.16% to 17.31 GM [4]. 4. Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - The log futures market fluctuated. The 01 contract is relatively strong. With the increase in foreign quotes and port fees, there is strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, the futures price has certain support at the bottom. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices of different contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipments increased by 6.00% to 176.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55% [5]. - **Inventory**: National log inventory decreased by 2.34% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the average daily log出库 volume increased by 10% to 6.32 million cubic meters [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - In the short - term, the rebound in raw material prices supports rubber prices, but the expected improvement in weather in northeastern Thailand may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Demand has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still adjusting production flexibly to control inventory. In the short - term, rubber prices may follow the macro - led market. If raw material supply is smooth, prices may decline further; if not, prices are expected to be around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.35%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.69%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August showed different trends. Tire production and import of natural rubber increased, while tire exports decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07% to 43483 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 2.93% to 40119 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up significantly due to the long holiday. The supply-demand pattern remains bearish, and it is advisable to continue the short-selling strategy during rebounds [1]. - Glass production and sales are sluggish, and the market price continues to be weak. The current trading reflects the logic of a disappointing peak season and fundamental oversupply. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [1]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase overseas, with raw material prices falling and weak cost support. The demand is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas [4]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near-month 11 contract has insufficient willingness of long positions to take delivery, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with supply pressure increasing and prices potentially under pressure. However, if the spot is firm, there is strong support below. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained stable or decreased slightly, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts falling by 1.02% and 0.59% respectively [1]. - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained stable, while the price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%. The 2505 and 2509 contracts fell by 0.15% and 0.38% respectively [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37% [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16% [1]. Inventory - Glass: The factory inventory was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 3.74%, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area: -0.09%, an increase of 0.09% [1]. - Construction area: 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43% [1]. - Completion area: -0.22%, a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - Sales area: -6.55%, a decrease of 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of most varieties increased slightly, with the basis of Yunnan state-owned whole milk rubber decreasing by 8.40% [4]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 50.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, while China's production increased [4]. - Tire Production and Exports: The domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [4]. - Import Volume: The import volume of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [4]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.68% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 contract of logs increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 6, and the arrival volume increased by 200,500 cubic meters [6]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume decreased by 83,000 cubic meters [6]. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis decreased [7]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts showed different trends, with the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 400.00% [7]. Fundamental Data - Production: The national industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, with significant increases in Xinjiang and Yunnan [7]. -开工率: The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, with significant increases in Xinjiang [7]. Inventory Changes - The factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of most varieties remained stable, and the basis of N - type silicon decreased by 31.70% [8]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract increased by 1.75%, and the spreads between different contracts showed different trends [8]. Fundamental Data - Production: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, while the monthly production of silicon wafers increased [8]. - Import and Export: The import volume of polysilicon decreased, and the export volume increased [8]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to move in a narrow - range oscillation [1][3]. - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as there is a game between reality and expectations [1][4]. - Lithium carbonate is likely to experience a weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production [1][10]. - For industrial silicon, the Inner Mongolia meeting has increased news - related disturbances [1][13]. - Regarding polysilicon, attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [1][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,850, down 940 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,915, up 65 from T - 10. There were also changes in trading volume, various premiums, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 in Indonesia is higher than that in 2024; some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines suspended production; Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 70,720, down 2,180 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a cooperation agreement for lithium - mining [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,665, up 255 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2511 was 52,885, down 635 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory data [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Jinko Energy's subsidiary plans to sell 80% of its equity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an obvious oversupply pattern. With no growth expected in overall demand, it's necessary to track policy implementation and production load adjustments. Wait for a new short - selling opportunity. [1] - Glass has seen a weakening of the market sentiment and a significant decline in spot trading. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Hold short positions and be vigilant against macro - induced fluctuations. [1] Industrial Silicon - In August, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider going long when the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply of polysilicon increases more rapidly than demand, facing inventory accumulation pressure. If there is progress in capacity integration or clearance, it may rise; otherwise, it may fluctuate downward. The price may range from 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, supply - side benefits are released, and inventory is decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to be strong. Monitor the raw material supply during the peak production season and consider short - selling if raw materials are abundant. [4] Logs - The log market is affected by reduced available supply and cost support. With stable demand and significant inventory reduction, the short - term futures market is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in various regions decreased, with South China having the largest decline of 2.33%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable, except for a 2.78% decline in the Northwest. [1] - The basis of glass 2505 and soda ash 2505 decreased by 28.70% and 19.05% respectively. [1] Supply - Soda ash production increased, with the weekly output rising by 6.42% to 74.47 million tons, and the operating rate increasing by 6.40% to 85.41%. [1] - The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - Glass inventory increased by 3.95%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.86%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 16.40%. [1] Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased slightly, with the largest increase of 1.75% for Xinjiang 99 - silicon. The basis of some types decreased significantly. [2] Supply and Demand - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 33.83 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. [2] - The production of downstream products such as polysilicon and regenerated aluminum alloy also increased. [2] Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1.30% to 54.70 million tons. [2] Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the basis of N - type materials decreased by 57.92%. [3] Supply and Demand - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased by 10.94% and 5.10% respectively. The import volume decreased by 16.90%, and the export volume increased by 66.17%. [3] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.75%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.83%. [3] Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - The prices of some natural rubber products increased, such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increasing by 1.38%. The prices of some raw materials dropped to zero. [4] Supply and Demand - Thailand and India's rubber production increased in June, while Indonesia's decreased. Tire production and export showed mixed performance. [4] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber decreased by 1.35%, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased by 6.34%. [4] Logs Prices and Spreads - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 832.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of some benchmark delivery products increased. [5] Supply and Demand - Port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The demand remained stable at 6.42 million cubic meters per day. [5] Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 2.84% to 308 million cubic meters. [5]