Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the national average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal level, contributing to the oversupply [2]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a 1.29% increase from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing supply pressure [2]. - Seasonal factors, such as typhoons in southern regions and the upcoming holidays, are expected to further increase market supply as producers rush to sell [2][3]. Production Efficiency and Costs - Leading enterprises are improving production efficiency, with some achieving a PSY (pigs per sow per year) of 28-29 heads, which supports supply despite the current low prices [3]. - The average cost of pig farming is around 6.5 yuan/kg for large groups and can reach 7 yuan/kg for smaller farmers, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the pig price has not yet reached its bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" due to continued oversupply [4][5]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated as production capacity control policies are implemented, potentially leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads by late 2026 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3352, down 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3395, up 8; JD09 closed at 3803, up 7 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at -43, down 10; 05 - 09 spread closed at -408, up 1; 09 - 01 spread closed at 451, up 9 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.14, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; main selling area average price was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - Dalian egg price was 3.33 yuan/jin, unchanged; Dezhou was 3.55 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Handan egg price was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; Xiaogan was 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin [3] Profit and Cost - Today's profit per bird was 21.99 yuan, down 1.28 yuan from yesterday [3] - Corn average price was 2370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; soybean meal average price was 2998 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - August national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [7] - August egg chick monthly emergence volume was 39.81 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [7] - September 26 week's national main producing area egg hen culling volume was 18.22 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week [7] - As of September 26 week, national representative selling area egg sales volume was 7148 tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous week [8] - As of September 26 week, production link weekly average inventory was 1.13 days, an increase of 0.19 days; circulation link weekly average inventory was 1.23 days, an increase of 0.17 days [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Overall supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to fall to the lowest level in recent years [10] - Short-term egg price rebound is mainly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday stocking. With the end of holiday stocking, egg prices have begun to decline [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions should be held as the spot price has recently declined, but there is expected to be some support near the previous low [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]

Core Viewpoint - The celebration of the 2025 Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival in Guangdong highlights the province's agricultural achievements and the positive changes in rural life, showcasing the successful implementation of the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" [1] Agricultural Achievements - Guangdong has made significant progress in rice production, achieving an early rice yield of 410.8 kg per mu, an increase of 6.3 kg from the previous year, marking a historical high [1] - The total rice production reached 5.332 million tons, up by 55,000 tons year-on-year [1] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in the first half of the year was 424.157 billion yuan, with rural residents' per capita disposable income at 14,624 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing urban residents by 1.7 percentage points [1] Rural Development Initiatives - The modern rural industrial system is rapidly developing, with a strong trend of integration between agriculture, culture, and tourism [1] - The construction of modern marine ranches is accelerating, with breakthroughs in marine fishery seed industry and successful production of advanced deep-sea aquaculture equipment [1] - The "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages Project" is fostering typical villages, promoting livable and workable beautiful rural areas [1] Community Engagement and Innovation - The main event attracted farmers and tourists, showcasing innovative rural construction models like rooftop cafes, which create new income paths for village collectives [2] - New farmers are emerging, such as "Hua Ju Hong Brother" and "Gong Gan Sister," who are successfully marketing local products to larger markets [2] - The event featured a variety of cultural activities, emphasizing the importance of sustainable rural development through community engagement [2] Local Economic Development - Zhaoqing, the event's host city, is known for its specialty products like "High Gui Shrimp," and has developed a full industrial chain for modern agriculture [4] - The event included a "Harvest Market" showcasing agricultural products from 21 cities in Guangdong, promoting local specialties and expanding sales channels through live broadcasts [4] Media and Technology Integration - Guangdong is implementing a "Media+" initiative to enhance agricultural and rural development, integrating media into the agricultural product market system [5] - The program "Brushing Our Harvest Season" features live broadcasts promoting local specialties, demonstrating how new farmers are leveraging technology to boost sales [5] - A conference on rural operation and media collaboration was held to share experiences and explore new paths for rural revitalization [5]

Core Insights - The integration of digital technology and brand thinking is transforming the livestock industry in Ordos, providing a model for rural revitalization in both the region and nationwide [2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The introduction of advanced technologies such as OPU-IVP and genomic testing in high-end beef cattle breeding is enhancing livestock quality and productivity [3] - AI-driven management in sheep farming has reduced feeding costs by 200 yuan per sheep and increased output by 8%, showcasing the efficiency of technology in traditional farming [3] Group 2: Community Engagement and Economic Impact - The "户繁企育" and "联户育肥" mechanisms of the company have created stable employment for nearly 100 individuals and generated over 52 million yuan in social value [4] - The integration of resources through party leadership, technical support, and cooperative organization has formed a community of interest among 6000 herders, improving farming efficiency by 40% [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Brand Development - The company has established a complete supply chain from breeding to sales, promoting the "图力和牛" brand through various marketing channels, thus achieving a value chain from farm to table [5] - The sheep industry has implemented a data-driven approach that allows consumers to trace 28 items of origin information, resulting in a brand premium exceeding 15% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing modernization of traditional livestock farming in Ordos is expected to deepen the application of digital technologies and expand the industry chain, contributing to rural revitalization [6]

证券日报网讯罗牛山（000735）9月29日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，关于猪价与盈利的关系， 公司需要说明以下几点：一方面，海南毗邻广东，公司持续对标广东猪价，近三年岛内猪价全年均价均 低于广东市场。同时，公司在养殖过程中面临着饲料原料依赖岛外调入、环保要求高、疫病防控等导致 的综合成本相对较高的客观现实，这是影响利润的关键。另一方面，公司经营已呈现积极改善。2024 年，生猪养殖板块通过内部整合与降本增效已实现盈利。2025年上半年的利润波动，主要因对部分合作 项目计提预计负债等非经常性因素所致。关于客户情况，公司客户系市场化开发与维护，企业重视与所 有客户的合作。客户是企业生存的基础，公司致力于服务好各类客户群体。 ...

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.54%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Jingji Zhino, Longda Meishi, and Aonong Biological [1] - Among the 11 stocks that rose, Tianyu Biological, Ronioushan, and New Hope saw increases of 1.49%, 1.27%, and 1.03% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 292 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and 9 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The leading net outflow was from Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 208 million yuan, followed by Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group with net outflows of 31.48 million yuan, 17.91 million yuan, and 16.87 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 33.06 million yuan, 14.71 million yuan, and 12.52 million yuan respectively [2] - The pork concept sector's outflow list highlighted Muyuan Foods, Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group as the top four companies with significant outflows [2][3]

在网友自嘲调侃之余，也有人发出疑问，为什么中国牛马都不缺，单单会缺驴？ 最近，中国畜牧业协会驴业分会相关负责人表示"我国牛马都不缺，就缺驴"，瞬间引燃了网友情绪。微 博上，"我国正面临缺驴危机"的话题快速登上热搜高位，阅读量突破1300万大关。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is in a weak adjustment, and may stabilize and adjust in the short - term due to farmers' resistance to low - price sales and the double - festival consumption boost. The corn price has a downward expectation as new - season corn enters the harvest period and new grain has high moisture, and traders are not willing to build inventories [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,575 yuan/ton last week, down 2.03% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 49.67 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.26 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.44, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 [4] - Market situation: The supply of leading group factories increased, demand did not improve significantly, and affected by typhoon weather in some areas, the overall market transaction was average, with weak price support. After continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to low - price sales increased, and the downstream product stocking effect appeared due to double - festival consumption [4] Corn - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,178 yuan/ton last week, up 0.32% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.49 yuan/ton [5] - Port prices: In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,460 - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [5] - Industrial consumption: From September 18 to September 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1424 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 47.88%, a decrease of 2.43% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS in sample enterprises was 97,440 tons, a decrease of 4,950 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.83% [6] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. As of September 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 650,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 370,000 tons [6] - Market situation: The national corn spot market first fell and then rose. Farmers in the Northeast had high enthusiasm for selling grain, and the purchase price decreased; the market circulation in North China decreased, and the enterprise purchase price increased slightly. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased, while the operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had certain pre - festival stocking needs, but the overall purchase volume was limited [7] - Operation suggestion: As the National Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position [7]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of supporting high-quality agricultural development in Xinjiang and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization efforts, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's recent speeches [1][2][3] Group 1: Agricultural Development Initiatives - The meeting called for enhancing agricultural production capacity, implementing a new round of actions to increase grain production by 1 trillion jin, and promoting high-standard farmland construction [2] - There is a focus on improving grain yield through comprehensive technology integration and promoting efficient water-saving agriculture [3] - The meeting stressed the need to support the development of organic fruits and vegetables, high-quality livestock products, and modern facility agriculture in Xinjiang [3] Group 2: Rural Revitalization Efforts - The meeting highlighted the importance of improving rural infrastructure, including roads, sanitation, and waste management, to enhance the living environment for farmers [3] - It emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, ensuring that there is no large-scale return to poverty [3] - The meeting also called for the care and support of agricultural aid workers in Xinjiang, enhancing their role in project and industry support [3]