正邦科技 20230331 摘要 2025 年受猪价下行影响全年亏损，预计 2026 年 Q1 全行业普遍亏损， 全年猪价表现不乐观，公司经营基调转为降本增效。 双胞胎集团资产注入正进行合规整改与梳理，承诺 2027 年底前完成重 组；目前上市公司主要借款源于控股股东，银行授信尚未恢复。 截至 2025 年 11 月，生猪上市率约 93%，PSY 约 27 头，料肉比 2.7， 成本较 2023 年下降约 5 元/公斤，未来仍有下降空间。 2026 年出栏目标预计随母猪存栏保持稳定，变量在于"公司+农户"模 式恢复进度；2025 年出栏均重约 130 公斤，暂无强制下调要求。 饲料业务 2025 年销量增长近 70%，采取薄利多销策略抢占市场，虽因 闲置资产摊销及前期投入仍亏损，但呈现持续减亏趋势。 行业限产政策导致审批流程增加、再融资周期延长，公司通过租赁猪场 给集团等方式使栏位利用率接近 85%的承诺阈值。 Q&A 请介绍一下公司 2025 年的整体经营状况以及控股股东资产注入的最新进展？ 2025 年是公司业务持续恢复、业绩指标不断向好的一年。全年生猪出栏量超 过 8,850 万头，同比实现翻番。饲料销 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 30 年 月 日 农林牧渔 生猪全面步入亏损，大宗原料成本稳步抬升 生猪养殖：月底全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价跌至 10 元/kg 下方，亏损程度加 深。市场股票经历反弹后大幅回调，参与度依旧较低，我们预计未来较长 时间成本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数据变化仍将继续催化， 建议投资者关注亏损阶段的配置机会。当前估值仍位于相对低位，关注低 成本的猪企的配置机会，关注德康农牧、温氏股份、牧原股份、立华股份、 巨星农牧、天康生物、正邦科技等。 大宗农产品：原油持续高位运行，预计带动生产成本上涨同时拉动需求扩 张，影响程度排序为植物油类、橡胶为先，其次为白糖、玉米，粮食类小 麦、稻谷为后。当前主要大宗农产品虽经历了部分上涨，定价仍未充分， 基本面反应在后但有望跟随，关注植物油类、橡胶、白糖、玉米等相关对 应标的。 菌菇：本月金针菇价格保持超预期景气，板块标的业绩发布兑现高增，主 营产品价格景气持续，冬虫夏草作为重点新产品放量期临近，年度配置价 值高，建议关注板块重点标的众兴菌业、雪榕生物、华绿生物等。 养殖配套：农产品上下游价格波动加剧，畜禽价格尚 ...

- The report focuses on the investment value of the CSI All Index Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index (930910.CSI), which is a secondary industry index under the CSI All Index series, reflecting the overall performance of the agriculture sector in the A-share market[39][40][42] - The index adopts a fully replicated method to construct the investment portfolio, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and annualized tracking error, with a target of absolute daily tracking deviation not exceeding 0.2% and annualized tracking error not exceeding 2%[9][89] - The index's sample adjustment rules include semi-annual adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year, and temporary adjustments in special circumstances such as delisting or corporate restructuring[41][45] - The weighting and weight rules use adjusted market capitalization weighting, with a single stock weight cap of 15%, and the top two weighted stocks are highly concentrated[46][47] - The index's industry distribution is characterized by "core focus and diversified collaboration," with a significant tilt towards two popular sub-sectors: pig farming (47.41%) and seed planting (15.52%), reflecting the core value and investment potential of these sectors[51][52] - The index demonstrates strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term annualized return exceeding 12% over the past 20 years, significantly outperforming broader indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300[67][68] - The agriculture sector's valuation is currently in a low-to-neutral range, with a PE-TTM of 24.56x as of March 2026, corresponding to a historical percentile of 27.06%, providing a certain safety margin[76][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market this week will continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live inventory is expected to enter the destocking phase. The theoretical supply in March is at a high level both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the consumption is in the seasonal off - season, so the spot price is expected to remain under pressure. The breeding side is in deep loss with tight cash flow, increasing the sales enthusiasm. With the requirement to reduce the sales weight, the live inventory may decline. From the trend of new piglet data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second quarter will decline to some extent, and factors for the spot price to stabilize and rebound may be accumulating [7]. - In the futures market, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts, including selling deep out - of - the - money call options of LH2605 and LH2607 contracts. For the unilateral strategy, short the near - month contracts on rallies; for the inter - month strategy, stay on the sidelines in the short term [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg, with all regions falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the white strip price also declined. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 280.95 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36.19 yuan/head. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1423.81 yuan/head [4]. - **Capacity**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The存栏 of reproductive sows in the steel - union sample in February was 5.1873 million, a slight month - on - month decline. The number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate were stable [4]. - **Supply**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in February was 38.8971 million, a month - on - month increase of 678,100. The theoretical supply pressure in the first quarter continued to increase, suppressing the sharp rebound of spot prices. The theoretical slaughter volume in March was at a high level, and from April, it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The daily slaughter volume this week was 132,951, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%. The daily slaughter start - up rate was 32.12%, a week - on - week increase of 9.48%. It is currently in the seasonal off - season of consumption, and the downstream's ability to absorb the large supply is limited. Consumption is expected to recover seasonally after April [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening mode dropped to - 263 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening dropped to - 154 yuan/head. The slaughter profit dropped to - 17.8 yuan/head. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost on breeding cost [5]. - **Substitutes**: The prices of beef, mutton, fish, and chicken fluctuated slightly, and the prices of various substitutes were stable [5]. - **Futures Market**: All contracts of live hog futures fell sharply this week, and there was a significant squeeze on the premium in the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - **Spot Market Prices**: The report shows the historical price trends of national standard pigs, white strips, piglets, and binary sows from 2022 to 2026 [10]. 3.3 Live Hog Market Balance Sheet - Based on piglet data, the supply - demand gap was flat year - on - year from March to May 2025, and widened rapidly from June to December 2025, being higher year - on - year. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will widen in the first and second quarters of 2026, and the center of spot prices is difficult to move up significantly [14][15]. 3.4 Basic Production Capacity Situation - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The存栏 data of reproductive sows from three - party institutions increased month - on - month in January 2026 [18]. - **Sow Culling Volume**: The sow culling volume decreased month - on - month in January, which may be related to the sharp rise in spot prices in January [20]. - **Farrowing Efficiency**: The PSY of 16 listed pig enterprises has been increasing year by year. With the continued improvement of breed replacement by medium - sized and small - sized breeding enterprises, the PSY data is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [27][28]. 3.5 Market Supply Situation - **Statistics on Slaughter and Inventory**: The report shows the quarterly slaughter and存栏 of live hogs from 2017 to 2025. The新增 piglet data from the steel - union showed a decline in November 2025 and an increase after December [30][33][36]. - **Inventory Structure and Weight**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in the steel - union sample and the proportion of different weight ranges are presented. The average slaughter weight of live hogs continued to increase slightly this week, and the fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline [43][45][59]. - **Monthly Planned Slaughter of Enterprises**: The report shows the monthly planned slaughter volume of 173 large - scale enterprises from 2022 to 2025, as well as the monthly slaughter volume trends of enterprises such as Muyuan, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Wenshi [46][62]. 3.6 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Volume and Pork Output**: The report shows the changes in the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughterhouses from 2018 to 2025 and the quarterly pork output of the Ministry of Commerce from 2017 to 2025 [71][73]. - **Slaughter - related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume, daily start - up rate, fresh sales rate, and capacity utilization rate of slaughter enterprises are presented, as well as the trends of wholesale market arrival and wholesale volume [76][82]. - **Competition Product Prices**: The price trends of beef, mutton, white - striped chicken, and crucian carp from 2021 to 2026 are shown [89]. 3.7 Breeding Cost and Industry Profit - **Cost and Profit Trends**: The report shows the profit trends of purchasing piglets for fattening, self - breeding and self - fattening, the price trend of fattening feed, and the pig - to - grain ratio from 2021 to 2026 [96]. - **Expected and Current Breeding Costs**: The expected and current breeding costs of large - scale enterprises in self - breeding and self - fattening mode, as well as the current and expected breeding costs of purchasing piglets for fattening, are presented. The secondary fattening costs of different weight increases are also shown [97][103][104]. 3.8 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: The price trends of various live hog futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 are shown [115]. - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The basis trends of various contracts and the spread trends between different contracts are presented [125][135].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5]. Core Insights - Post-holiday pig prices are accelerating downward, indicating imminent capacity reduction. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in February 2026 were 27.57 CNY/kg, 12.82 CNY/kg, and 23.73 CNY/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of 8.62%, -2.73%, and 1.43% [15][40]. - The supply side shows that the effective slaughter days in February were reduced due to the Spring Festival, leading to concentrated pre-holiday slaughtering and sufficient market supply. Post-holiday, the enthusiasm for slaughtering remains, with large-scale farms gradually resuming their slaughtering rhythm [18]. - Demand has weakened after the Spring Festival, entering a traditional off-season, with a decrease in the slaughtering rate by 8.22 percentage points to 28.02% in February [18][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The agricultural and rural affairs department's monitoring indicates that pig prices are declining after the New Year, with the national average price for live pigs dropping to 10.40 CNY/kg by March 10 [15][40]. - The supply side is characterized by a sufficient market supply due to concentrated pre-holiday slaughtering and ongoing enthusiasm for slaughtering post-holiday [18]. - The demand side is facing challenges as consumption enters a traditional off-season, leading to sluggish sales [18]. Capacity Change Trends - As of December 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, showing a decline compared to October. The industry is expected to enter a phase of deep losses, with cash flow pressures increasing for farming entities [22][28]. - The average loss per head for self-bred pigs is 283.15 CNY, while for purchased piglets, it is 118.18 CNY, indicating a deepening of industry losses [28] - The policy environment is tightening, with ongoing capacity reduction expected as the industry faces significant operational pressures [22][28]. Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices for major companies such as Muyuan, Wens, Zhengbang, and New Hope decreased by 7.80%, 8.86%, 7.07%, and 0%, respectively [31]. - The slaughter volumes for these companies also saw a decline, with Muyuan's volume dropping by 34.33% to 460,000 heads [34][38]. - The average slaughter weight increased slightly, indicating a potential slowdown in sales rhythm [34]. Future Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for pig supply is grim, with prices expected to continue to decline and losses accumulating. The industry is at a critical stage for capacity reduction, with opportunities for left-side layout [28]. - The industry index's price-to-book ratio is showing signs of bottoming out, suggesting potential for further upward movement [28]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies with cost advantages and high performance realization rates, such as Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, Tiankang, and Shennong Group [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The agriculture, livestock, and fishery sector is at the intersection of cycle repair, policy strengthening, and price re - evaluation, with clear investment opportunities [1][11]. - The pig - breeding industry is approaching the critical point of accelerated capacity clearance, and the feed industry has cost improvement and post - cycle repair attributes. The planting chain and seed industry have strategic allocation value [2][3]. - The CSI All - China Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery Index focuses on investment opportunities in the A - share agricultural sector, with high elasticity and stable improvement in the operating ability of its constituent stocks [4]. - The JingShun Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery ETF (560210) provides a convenient investment tool for investors to share the growth of the agriculture, livestock, and fishery industry at a low cost [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery Sector Investment Opportunities - **Pig - breeding**: The pig - breeding industry is at the critical point of accelerated capacity clearance. Low prices, losses, and capacity reduction are forming a linkage with subsequent price increase expectations. The profit elasticity of the sector is usually higher than the increase in pig prices, and it can drive the prosperity of the entire agricultural industry chain [17][21][26]. - **Feed industry**: It has cost improvement and post - cycle repair attributes. It is a core intermediate link in the agricultural industry chain, with a clear trend of concentration among leading enterprises. It has asset allocation value and can connect the planting and breeding industries [27][29][30]. - **Planting chain and seed industry**: They are long - term investment mainlines in the agricultural sector. Policy support is strong, and the grain output and related indicators are improving. The seed industry is in the stage of inventory digestion and system upgrading, and is expected to move towards high - quality development [31][32][39]. - **Valuation and investment value**: The current overall valuation of the agricultural sector is at a relatively low level in history, providing a solid safety margin for subsequent valuation repair. The sector has multiple advantages such as left - side cycle layout, medium - term policy catalysis, and marginal price increase expectations [12][16][41] 3.2. CSI All - China Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery Index - **Index composition**: It selects stocks of listed companies in the agriculture, livestock, and fishery industry from the CSI All - China Index, with a semi - annual adjustment. The weight of a single sample does not exceed 15% [43][45]. - **Index performance**: From 2005 to March 13, 2026, the cumulative increase of the index was 962.54%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300, which increased by 366.91% during the same period [44]. - **Industry focus**: It focuses on the "pig - breeding" and "seed" industries, with the main industries including aquaculture, planting, feed, chemical products, and animal health, with weights of 47.41%, 15.52%, 14.86%, 8.02%, and 7.03% respectively [48]. - **Market - value style**: It is positioned as a small - and medium - cap growth style. The average and median total market values of the index are 171 billion yuan and 70 billion yuan respectively. The operating ability of the constituent stocks has been steadily improving, and the total operating income has increased from 621.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 893.3 billion yuan in 2024 [51][52]. - **Weighted stocks**: The top 5 weighted stocks are Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd., Haid Group Co., Ltd., Zhengbang Technology Co., Ltd., and Meihua Biotech Group Co., Ltd., with a total weight of 44.03% for the top 5 and 57.46% for the top 10 [53] 3.3. JingShun Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery ETF (560210) - **Product information**: It was established on March 11, 2026, with an establishment scale of 781 million yuan, and will be listed on March 20, 2026. It closely tracks the CSI All - China Agriculture, Livestock, and Fishery Index, and the assets invested in the constituent stocks and alternative constituent stocks of the target index are not less than 90% of the net asset value of the fund and not less than 80% of the non - cash fund assets [59]. - **Fund manager**: The fund manager is Gong Lili, who has 15 years of experience in the securities and fund industries and currently manages 11 fund products (excluding linked funds) with a total scale of 21 billion yuan [64]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for live pig sales is progressing slowly, with a divergence in performance among leading enterprises. Supply is expected to remain loose in the coming six months [4] - The cash flow pressure in the industry is significant, with expectations of deep losses in the second quarter as both live pigs and piglets may face substantial deficits [4][56] - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with cash flow continuously depleting and pessimistic expectations accelerating capacity reduction [82] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Volume - The industry sales progress in February was below expectations, with a completion rate of only 95%. March is expected to see a 25% increase in planned sales compared to February [8] - The actual sales volume for February was 21.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 22% [16] - The estimated theoretical total output of commodity pigs for the first half of 2026 is expected to increase by 7.84% year-on-year [8] 2. Pig Prices and Profits - February pig prices showed a decline of 24% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, with average profits turning negative at -99 yuan per head [56] - The price of piglets saw a seasonal increase in February, but the sentiment for replenishment is expected to weaken [59] - The price difference between fattened pigs and market pigs expanded seasonally but remains lower year-on-year [63] 3. Production Capacity - The breeding stock showed a slight increase in February, but the industry is expected to face ongoing cash flow issues leading to accelerated capacity reduction [76] - As of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, indicating a persistent overcapacity issue [79] - The industry is advised to optimize capacity by eliminating low-yield sows and enhancing the breeding of high-efficiency pigs [79] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that it is an opportune time to invest in leading breeding enterprises during this low cycle phase [82] - Recommended companies include DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs, among others [84]

证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 公告编号：2026—007 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 关于对外担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 内的全资及控股子公司。 2、为缓解公司产业链部分优质养殖户、经销商等生态圈合作伙伴资金周转 困难的状况，加强其与公司的长期合作，促进生态圈合作伙伴与公司的共同进步， 保证生态圈合作伙伴的稳定，有效推动公司主营业务的恢复与发展，公司于 2025 年 12 月 9 日召开第八届董事会第七次临时会议审议通过了《关于 2026 年度对外 提供担保额度预计的议案》，同意公司及控股子公司为产业链养殖户和经销商等 生态圈合作伙伴（以下简称"被担保人"）的融资提供不超过 16 亿元（含本数） 担保。以上担保额度为最高担保额度，授权期内任一时点公司对养殖户和经销商 等生态圈合作伙伴的担保余额不能超过最高担保额度；担保额度在授权期内可以 滚动使用。担保额度有效期为 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2026 年 12 月 31 日。 上述议案已经公司 2025 年第三次临时股东会审议通过。上述具体内容详见 公司 2 ...

2026年1-2月，公司累计销售生猪168.48万头，同比上升64.83%；累计销售收 入13.70亿元，同比上升19.67%。 上述数据均未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异。因此，上 述数据仅作为阶段性数据，供投资者参考。 证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 公告编号：2026—006 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 关于2026年2月份生猪销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江西正邦科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的经营范围中包括生猪养 殖业务，现公司就每月生猪销售情况进行披露，具体内容如下： 一、2026年2月份生猪销售情况 公司2026年2月销售生猪75.73万头，环比下降18.36%，同比上升68.01%；销 售收入5.54亿元，环比下降32.18%，同比上升19.64%。 商品猪（扣除仔猪后）销售均价11.57元/公斤，较上月下降7.08%。 《证券时报》《证券日报》《上海证券报》《中国证券报》以及巨潮资讯网 （www.cninfo.com.cn）为本公司指定的信息披露媒体，公司所有信息均以公司在 上述媒 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [9] Core Insights - In January 2026, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 25.38 CNY/kg, 13.18 CNY/kg, and 23.40 CNY/kg, respectively, with month-on-month changes of 8.44%, 7.50%, and 3.39% [1][16] - The supply side saw a normal rhythm of slaughtering in large-scale farms, while small and medium-sized farmers slowed down, supporting January pig prices. However, post-holiday expectations weakened, leading to increased supply pressure in February [1][19] - The demand side experienced a gradual increase in market activity due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, but slaughtering profitability pressures hindered operational rates and price increases [1][19] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - January saw a recovery in pig prices, but February prices began to decline, with the national average for live pigs at 12 CNY/kg as of February 10 [1][16] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase due to concentrated pre-holiday slaughtering, while demand remains weak due to a late Spring Festival and insufficient terminal stocking support [1][19] Capacity Change Trends - As of December 2025, the number of breeding sows decreased to 39.61 million, down 1.10% from October [2][25] - The recent improvement in profitability during peak seasons has slowed the pace of capacity reduction, but the downward trend remains intact [2][25] Future Market Outlook - The downward pressure on pig prices is significant, with expectations of industry losses clearing out as prices hit a bottom. The second half of 2026 may see a price rebound due to policy adjustments and capacity reductions [3][30] - The industry index PB is at a historical low, indicating a safety margin in valuations. Recommended stocks include leading companies with strong performance, such as Muyuan Foods and others [3][30] January Sales Data of Listed Companies - In January, the sales prices for major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs increased month-on-month, while their sales volumes decreased [9][39] - The average slaughter weight varied among companies, with some showing increases while others experienced declines [39][41] Cost Analysis - The cost of pig farming is a critical factor, with leading companies maintaining costs below 12.5 CNY/kg, which positions them favorably for long-term profitability [49][50] - The latest costs for major companies include Muyuan Foods at 11.80 CNY/kg and Wens Foodstuffs at 12 CNY/kg [50][51]