金十数据7月21日讯，A股三大股指整体呈现震荡上升态势，沪指涨0.44%，深成指涨0.29%，创业板指 涨0.12%。沪深两市半日成交额1.09万亿，较上个交易日放量708亿，市场活跃度大幅提升。盘面上，个 股涨多跌少，全市场超3500只个股上涨。受雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工消息影响，早盘雅下水电概 念、水泥建筑等热门概念股集体大爆发，中国电建、西藏天路、高争民爆、青松建化、上峰水泥等多股 涨停。钢铁板块延续强势，西宁特钢、八一钢铁涨停。稀土永磁板块再度强势上涨，盛和资源涨停，华 宏科技、北方稀土跟涨；保险、光刻机、银行板块跌幅居前，同飞股份跌超3%，中国太保、齐鲁银行 跌超2%。 A股午评：沪指涨0.44% 水泥建筑概念股大爆发 ...

Group 1 - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation ETF (515600) has shown strong performance, with a 2.21% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.813 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a month [1] - Over the past five years, the ETF's net value has increased by 60.15%, ranking 69th out of 996 index equity funds, placing it in the top 6.93% [1] Group 2 - The CSI Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation Driven Index (000861) evaluates the innovation and profitability of listed central enterprises, selecting 100 representative companies [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 34.87% of the total, including companies like Hikvision and China Southern Power Grid [2] - A significant hydropower project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - China Power Construction Corporation has a dominant market share in hydropower engineering, handling over 80% of river planning and more than 65% of large and medium-sized hydropower station construction tasks [3] - China Energy Engineering Corporation has completed over 90% of domestic thermal power design tasks and holds a significant share in hydropower construction [3] - Other central enterprises like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are expected to benefit from future hydropower infrastructure projects [3]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑装饰 建筑装饰行业跟踪周报 上半年基建投资平稳，继续关注城市更 新、重点工程项目 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2025.7.14–2025.7.18，下同）：本周建筑装饰板块（SW）涨跌幅 -0.71%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.09%、1.4%，超 额收益分别为-1.8%、-2.11%。 ◼ 行业重要政策、事件变化、数据跟踪点评： （1）国家统计局发布 6 月经济数据：上半年 GDP 同比增长 5.3%，但 6 月消费、投资、地产数据均有所承压。1-6 月基建投资累计同比 +4.6%，较 1-5 月放缓 1.0pct，或反映财政前置后节奏放缓的影响。基 建投资结构上交通大类投资增速保持稳步加快的态势，同比增长 5.6%，较 1-5 月加快 1.6pct，但水利管理业投资增长 15.4%，增速较 1- 5 月回落 11.2pct，是主要下拉项，公共设施管理业同比增长 1.7%，也 较 1-5 月放缓 2.1pct。1-6月地产投资/销售/新开工/竣工面积累计分别同 比-11.2%/-3.5% ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher on July 21, driven by significant events, with sectors like water conservancy, infrastructure, and cement manufacturing showing strong performance [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) saw a 0.30% increase, with major holdings such as China Power Construction, Yahua Group, and Jinfa Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - As of July 18, the A500 ETF had an average daily trading volume of 3.631 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project commenced on July 19 in Nyingchi, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five cascade power stations [1] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission outside the region while also addressing local consumption needs [1] - Citic Securities indicated that the current A-share market is experiencing deep structural differentiation, with macro structural divergence and ongoing overseas pressures likely to sustain this trend [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF (512050) enables investors to easily allocate to leading companies across various sectors, tracking the CSI A500 Index with a balanced industry allocation and leading company selection strategy [2] - The ETF covers all 35 sub-sectors, integrating value and growth attributes, and is overweight in new productivity sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy compared to the CSI 300 [2]

消息面上，7月19日上午，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。雅鲁藏布江下 游水电工程将建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万亿元。国投证券认为，雅下工程作为国家级战略项目， 涉及水电建设、基础设施建设、特高压输电、设备制造、民爆、水泥建材供应等多个产业链环节，其开 工建设将带来上下游产业链需求逐步释放，建议关注产业链投资机会。该行指出，建筑企业联合倡议反 内卷，专项债发行同比高增，基建龙头基本面或将改善，国企改革/央企市值管理驱动破净建筑央企价 值提升。 智通财经APP获悉，基建股普遍上扬，截至发稿，中国中铁(00390)涨4.17%，报4港元；中国交建 (01800)涨3.17%，报5.53港元；中国铁建(01186)涨3.12%，报5.62港元；中国中冶(01618)涨2.27%，报1.8 港元。 天风证券指出，近期建筑央国企陆续披露二季度订单情况：从央企的订单情况来看，央企的订单二季度 环比一季度有回暖的趋势，以中国中铁为例，25Q1订单同比下滑9.9%，但是25H1订单同比增速转正为 2.8%，其中Q2单季度订单同比增速为20.08%，中国核建25H1订单同比增速13.72%，仍保持了 ...

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Hydropower, Construction, Chemical, and Building Materials - **Key Project**: Yalong River Hydropower Station - **Beneficiary Companies**: China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zhonglian Heavy Industry, and others Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Impact of Yalong River Hydropower Station**: - The project represents a significant investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, aimed at stimulating demand in traditional industries in Xinjiang and Tibet, especially amid economic downturn concerns [2] - It serves as a dual approach to supply-side reform and demand-side stimulus, helping stabilize economic growth [1][2] 2. **Demand Surge in Chemical and Building Materials**: - The construction will significantly increase demand for chemicals, particularly in the civil explosives sector, with an expected total demand of 1.5 million tons of explosives over 8 to 10 years [1][4][6] - Cement demand is projected to exceed 80 million tons, with an annual increase of over 600,000 tons, representing a growth of over 50% compared to 2024's total production [1][8] 3. **Engineering Machinery Demand**: - The project will lead to a substantial increase in demand for engineering machinery, potentially doubling the need for excavators and other equipment due to the high construction intensity [11][10] - Key beneficiaries include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zhonglian Heavy Industry, among others [11] 4. **Market Opportunities for Electrical Equipment**: - The project has a total installed capacity of approximately 60GW, creating a market space of about 48 billion yuan, primarily benefiting Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric [3][17] - Each company is expected to secure around 40 billion yuan in new orders annually, with a significant portion of their revenue tied to this project [17][18] 5. **Long-term Infrastructure Development**: - The Yalong River project is part of a broader strategy to develop a clean energy base integrating wind, solar, and hydropower, enhancing resource allocation and economic efficiency [15] - The project is expected to provide long-term revenue growth for construction companies like China Energy Engineering and China Power Construction due to its extensive duration and scale [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Supply Chain Considerations**: - The complexity of the geological environment in the Yarlung Tsangpo region will necessitate sourcing explosives from outside Tibet, benefiting companies with larger production capacities [6][7] - The anticipated supply shortages in civil explosives could create opportunities for companies like Kelong Explosives and Yipuli [4][7] 2. **Investment in Public Utilities**: - The project will also require investments in high-voltage transmission lines and renewable energy facilities, further expanding the market for related infrastructure [15] 3. **Future Economic Events**: - Upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the 14th Five-Year Plan may reveal new growth areas and investment opportunities [5] 4. **Valuation and Market Positioning**: - Current valuations for Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric suggest they are undervalued, with significant growth potential linked to the Yalong River project [18] 5. **Role of Private Enterprises**: - Tianyuan Power, a private enterprise, is expected to play a crucial role in the project, leveraging its technology in collaboration with state-owned companies [21] 6. **Recommended Companies for Investment**: - Companies such as China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, and CITIC Dadi are recommended for their potential to benefit from the project [22]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The construction industry is facing severe issues of excessive competition and homogenization, leading to low profitability for companies. In 2024, the total revenue of the industry is expected to decline by 4.3%, with a performance drop of 14% [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and guide companies to launch new products, which is crucial for the construction industry [2] Key Companies and Their Performance - Central enterprises with good business models and stable cash flows, such as China National Materials and China State Construction International, are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy due to their strong net profit performance and growth, making them suitable for dividend stock allocation [1][4] - Honglu Steel Structure has seen an increase in production and sales from 2021 to 2024, but its profits have fluctuated significantly, primarily due to steel price volatility. The net profit per ton dropped from 280 RMB in 2021 to 110 RMB in 2024 [1][6] - Zhongguang International and China National Materials are likely to benefit from improved domestic corporate profits, alleviating debt issues and encouraging investment in green technology upgrades [1][9] Market Dynamics - The rise in steel prices has a significant impact on companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which benefits from holding large inventories. The pricing strategy is based on current prices plus processing fees [1][5] - The construction sector may benefit from improved operational quality and valuation recovery due to the anti-involution policy [2] Challenges and Opportunities - The main challenges for the construction industry include excessive competition, homogenization, and issues such as blind expansion and high debt levels, which have led to low profitability [3][11] - Opportunities arise if the Chinese economy can break the deflation spiral and achieve a new growth cycle, leading to demand-side growth. Additionally, increased investment in green technology and the promotion of smart manufacturing will provide new development momentum for construction companies [11] Future Outlook - Honglu Steel Structure's future performance will depend on several factors, including market share improvement, macroeconomic conditions, and advancements in smart manufacturing that can reduce costs significantly [8] - The overall improvement in the competitive environment due to breaking the deflation spiral and healthy price increases will be beneficial for the construction industry and related companies [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The conference call discusses the **Yaxi Hydropower Station** project and its implications for the **construction industry** in China, particularly focusing on **China Power Construction Corporation (China Power)** and **China Energy Engineering Corporation (China Energy)** as the main participating companies [1][3][5]. Core Points and Arguments - **Project Overview**: The Yaxi Hydropower Station is a large-scale hydropower project with an estimated construction cost of **1.2 trillion yuan** (approximately **$173 billion**), a construction period of **10-15 years**, and an annual investment of **80-120 billion yuan** (approximately **$11.5-17.2 billion**) [1][3]. - **Economic Impact**: The project is expected to significantly boost the economy of the **Tibet Autonomous Region**, potentially increasing local GDP by **40%** and doubling the output of the secondary industry [1][3]. - **Local Company Benefits**: Local companies such as **Tibet Tianlu** and **Gaozheng Explosives** will benefit substantially, with their local revenue shares being **83%** and **76%**, respectively [1][3][4]. - **Demand for Construction**: The project will create substantial demand for the construction industry, with **50%-80%** of the total investment allocated for engineering construction, translating to an annual demand increase of **40-96 billion yuan** (approximately **$5.7-13.7 billion**) [5][7]. - **Revenue Growth for Major Companies**: Under optimistic assumptions, if China Power and China Energy share the project, China Power's revenue could increase by **12%** and China Energy's by **18%**. In conservative scenarios, the revenue growth could be as low as **1.3%** for China Power and **2%** for China Energy [6][7]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Infrastructure Development**: The project will also necessitate preliminary infrastructure development, such as road construction, further stimulating regional economic growth [8]. - **Investment Opportunities in Construction Sector**: The construction sector is advised to focus on low-valuation, high-dividend potential stocks, such as **China National Materials** and **China Construction International**, which have dividend yields exceeding **6%** [2][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The construction industry is expected to see increased demand in the second half of **2025**, supported by special government bonds and financial instruments, enhancing the overall economic impact of the construction sector [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the significant economic implications of the Yaxi Hydropower Station project and the potential investment opportunities within the construction industry.

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Anhui Construction Group is actively engaging in financial strategies to enhance its operational efficiency and liquidity through futures hedging and bond issuance. Group 1: Trading Information - On July 18, 2025, Anhui Construction's stock closed at 4.8 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.21% and a turnover rate of 0.77% [1] - The trading volume was 132,800 shares, with a total transaction value of 63.6564 million yuan [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 10.5222 million yuan, accounting for 16.53% of the total transaction value [3] Group 2: Company Announcements - The ninth meeting of the ninth board of directors approved a proposal for Anhui Construction's subsidiary to engage in steel futures hedging, with a maximum trading margin of 15 million yuan and a maximum contract value of 150 million yuan [1][3] - The board also approved the establishment of a management method for futures hedging business, with unanimous support from all attending directors [1] - Anhui Construction's subsidiary, Anhui Construction Road and Bridge Group, has received approval to issue up to 1 billion yuan in short-term financing bonds and 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes [2][3]