Core Viewpoint - The dairy and beef industries are experiencing significant changes, with dairy prices under pressure and beef prices entering an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector. Dairy Sector - Supply contraction in the dairy sector may be nearing its end, with approximately 8% of dairy cow capacity having been reduced as of August 2025, following four years of declining milk prices and 1.5 years of industry losses [1] - The upcoming third quarter's silage feed procurement season is expected to increase funding demands, potentially accelerating the reduction of dairy farm inventories [1] - The tight supply-demand balance, driven by reduced production capacity and seasonal consumption peaks, is likely to support a rebound in milk prices [2] Beef Sector - The domestic beef production capacity has been thoroughly cleared, with the current loss cycle exceeding 600 days and an average loss of 725 yuan per head, leading to a significant reduction in breeding cows [3] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with adverse conditions in major foreign production areas contributing to a long-term global beef supply gap [3] - The combination of reduced domestic beef supply and limited imports is expected to lead to a contraction in beef supply by the second half of 2025, indicating a potential super cycle in beef prices [3] Specific Companies - In the beef sector, companies such as China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co. are recommended for investment due to the anticipated reduction in beef supply [4] - In the dairy sector, companies like Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, Modern Dairy, Aoya Group, and Tianrun Dairy are suggested for monitoring as the industry approaches a potential price rebound [4]

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，市场供应充足，9月15日至21日，全国36个大中城市猪肉零售价格环 比下降0.3%。东部地区猪肉价格降幅居前，其中深圳、济南和南京分别下降2.8%、1.6%和1.5%。 ...

Group 1 - Xinjiang's grain yield per mu reached 1049.7 kg in 2024, ranking first in the country, with total root crop production increasing from 30.35 billion kg in 2012 to 46.6 billion kg in 2024, a growth of 53.6% [3] - In 2024, Xinjiang's cotton production totaled 5.686 million tons, accounting for 92.3% of the national total, maintaining the top position for 32 consecutive years, with a comprehensive mechanization rate of 97% [5] - Xinjiang has transformed from relying on natural conditions for livestock farming to utilizing modern technology, becoming a major producer of high-quality livestock products in China [7] Group 2 - Xinjiang's fruits, such as Hami melons, Turpan grapes, Korla pears, and Aksu apples, are favored in the national fruit market, benefiting from unique climatic conditions that enhance their sweetness and aroma [9] - The region has over 4.6 million acres of suitable fishing waters, with a total aquatic product output of 192,500 tons in 2024, contributing to its reputation as a significant seafood exporter [14]

Core Insights - The livestock sector is a crucial part of Ethiopia's agricultural economy, contributing approximately 20% to export revenues, primarily to Middle Eastern and North African countries [1] - Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa, with over 70 million cattle, 95 million sheep, and 8 million camels as of 2024 [1] - Despite its potential, Ethiopia's livestock value chain faces significant challenges, including a lack of commercial production systems, weak policies, skill shortages, and inadequate veterinary and infrastructure services [1] Project Overview - The "Ethiopian Livestock Value Chain Enhancement" project, initiated in 2021 through collaboration between China, Ethiopia, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, aims to address these challenges [1][2] - The project has made significant progress in improving Ethiopia's meat value chain by supporting policy framework development, enhancing certification and inspection systems, and facilitating technical knowledge exchange [1][2] Recent Developments - A demonstration center for the tripartite cooperation was inaugurated in Beijing in July 2024, marking the official start of the second phase of the livestock value chain project, which will focus on institutional capacity building and technical support [2][17] - The project aims to improve food safety and quality management systems, promote structural transformation, and enhance investment and international trade connections [2] Technological Advancements - The implementation of a livestock identification and traceability system has been initiated, allowing for better management and tracking of livestock throughout the supply chain [6][7] - A mobile application developed by the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture supports on-site registration and tracking of livestock, even in remote areas with limited internet access [6] Economic Impact - Farmers can receive a 15% premium for selling tagged animals, which enhances their income and provides access to insurance and loans [7] - The Ethiopian government has updated and developed new policies and standards crucial for meeting export requirements, including guidelines for foot-and-mouth disease biosecurity and monitoring [7][8] Capacity Building and Training - Over 500 Ethiopian professionals have participated in training programs focused on food safety standards, slaughterhouse management, and meat inspection techniques since the project's inception [16] - The project has facilitated the establishment of a meat industry portal and digitized inspection processes, significantly enhancing the compliance and international competitiveness of Ethiopian agricultural products [13] Future Prospects - The project is expected to further enhance Ethiopia's livestock quality and export capabilities, with plans to establish foot-and-mouth disease-free zones to facilitate meat exports to China [8][17] - The collaboration is seen as a model for South-South cooperation, showcasing the potential of international partnerships in driving industrial development and achieving sustainable development goals [2][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig and poultry markets, is experiencing significant price declines, with the agricultural index dropping 2.70% last week, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [3][12] - The report highlights concerns regarding the ability to reduce pig production capacity, which has led to market volatility and price pressures [4][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is being reinforced, aiming to stabilize pig prices in the future, with recent meetings indicating stricter measures for production capacity reduction [20][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector faced a substantial decline, with the agricultural index down 2.70%, while the broader market indices fell less significantly [12][14] - Core agricultural segments, including pigs and poultry, saw notable price drops, raising concerns about production capacity adjustments [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - As of September 21, the average price of pigs was 12.69 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [4][17] - The report indicates that the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to significant supply pressure, particularly in Q4 [17][20] - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned to losses, with an average loss of 24 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 199 yuan per head [18] Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks has shown a slight rebound, reaching 3.5 yuan/chick, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand [5][28] - The average price of broiler meat remains stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, but overall demand has not improved significantly [28] - The report notes a significant decrease in the number of grandparent stock updated, which could impact future supply dynamics [28] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted to 5905 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [32] - The price of imported Brazilian soybeans stands at 3987 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% decrease [32] - Cotton prices have slightly increased to 15300 yuan/ton, while corn prices have decreased to 2325 yuan/ton [32]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 消费持续疲软，猪价延续弱势 生猪观点 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 综合来看，上周现货价格迎来了较大的跌幅，同时仔猪价格也同步下跌，部分地区的仔猪跌破成本线。针对集团 的会议对市场并未造成太大影响，生猪未来仍将保持供需逻辑。玉米和豆粕的继续下跌使得生猪养殖成本继续下 降，从目前盘面价格来看自繁自养仍有一定利润空间，随着仔猪价格的下跌，当下抓仔猪育肥的成本具有优势， 预计未来生猪供应会继续增加，重点关注政策端的变化情况。 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12665元/吨，较前交易日变动-130.00元/吨，幅度-1.02%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+155，较前交易日变动+140；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH11+215，较前交易日变动+20；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.29元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.17元/公斤，现货基差LH11-375，较前交易日变动-40。 据农业农村部监测，9月22 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the pig price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under the condition of sufficient supply [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and provide some support for the pig price [4]. - If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 23, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 427 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its position by 531 lots today, with a position of about 93,500 lots. The highest price today was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,655 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,665 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a fluctuating manner [3]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still at a high level, and the demand support for the pig price is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if it occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 23, the national average hog slaughter price was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.24% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 12.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.08% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 12.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared with the previous day [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 1.58%. The main contract (11 contract) closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 1.02% compared with the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 120 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton, an increase of 126.32% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Tracking data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contract, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contract are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not carried out in the text [14].

Core Insights - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province was reported at 5.64:1 on September 23, remaining within the 5:1 to 6:1 range for three consecutive weeks, indicating a stable market condition [1] - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, along with four other departments, has issued a plan to improve the government's pork reserve adjustment mechanism to ensure market supply and price stability [1] - The province is prepared to initiate frozen pork reserve collection as part of its strategy to manage market fluctuations [1]

Core Points - Poland reported two recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, resulting in the death of over 4,000 poultry [1] - The outbreaks occurred at a meat goose farm and a turkey breeding farm in northern Poland [1] - In response to the outbreaks, Poland has implemented a series of control measures, including culling infected birds, restricting the movement of poultry and their products, designating infected areas, and conducting disinfection and monitoring [1] - This marks the re-emergence of avian influenza in Poland after the country declared the disease eradicated in May of this year [1] - The World Organisation for Animal Health highlighted that Europe is currently in a seasonal high-risk period for avian influenza [1]

Core Insights - Current piglet prices are at a low level, presenting a golden opportunity for cost-effective expansion and optimization of pig herd structure [1] - The introduction of high-quality piglets is emphasized as a strategy to enhance future profitability [1] Market Insights - The current attractive piglet prices significantly reduce the comprehensive cost of introducing a piglet, providing a solid foundation for future profits [1] - The new Meifeng piglets are highlighted for their high cost-performance ratio, combining low costs with high output [1] Quality Attributes - New Meifeng piglets boast superior genetics, leading to faster growth rates and lower feed-to-meat ratios, which can greatly save on feed costs and allow for earlier market entry [2] - Their excellent body shape ensures a higher meat yield, providing a price advantage at the time of sale [2] Call to Action - Immediate action is encouraged to secure lower initial costs and lock in higher future farming returns with high-quality piglets from New Meifeng [2]