1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy may face challenges as inflation re - heats in September, retail sales growth slows, and the Fed may need to cut interest rates. The peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict is making progress, which could potentially impact global markets. In the domestic market, the A - share market rebounds, and the bond market shows mixed performance. The commodity market has different trends in various sectors such as metals, energy, and agriculture [3][22][31] - The report also provides macro - economic data, which shows the current economic situation such as GDP growth, PMI, and inflation rates in the domestic market, and also includes information on international economic data and events that may affect the global and domestic investment environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% [1] - Social financing scale in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all declined compared to the previous month [1] - CPI in October 2025 was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US leaders' phone call was initiated by the US, with a positive atmosphere. The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the Fed may cut interest rates [2][3] - On November 25, 47 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 22 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and铸造铝合金 had the largest basis [2] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut, the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and concerns about the US fiscal deficit [5] - Zinc, copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed on November 24. Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland decreased in October [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - November, the prices of coke, coking coal, and rebar all increased. However, the increase in coke prices has squeezed steel mills' profits, and coke prices may face downward pressure at the end of the month or early December [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Norway aims to maintain its oil and gas production at 2020 levels by 2035 and will invest about 60 billion Norwegian kroner. European natural gas prices are expected to decline [9] - Iraq's oil exports in October were 110.9 million barrels, and measures are taken to maintain the production of the West Qurna - 2 oilfield [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - November, the prices of corn, wheat, and rice increased, while the price of cotton decreased. The price of natural rubber rose [11] - The inventory of breeding sows in China decreased, and the pig price is expected to rise moderately before the Spring Festival. The breeding of poultry and eggs is expected to face losses [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 25, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 105.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the China - US leaders' phone call is positive. The Chinese government will hold a press conference on promoting consumption [15][16] - China's foreign direct investment and overseas project contracting increased from January to October. Local government special bonds are being issued for government investment funds [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The A - share market is strong, while the bond market is weak. The yields of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the prices of some bonds of Vanke decreased significantly [22] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, and the convertible bond index rose. The money market interest rates had different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies generally rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December is uncertain. Active management bond funds can break the situation through strategies such as "fixed income +" and medium - long - term credit amortization [28][29] - For 2026, it is recommended to set the GDP target at around 5% and implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [29] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded, with lithium mines and the Fujian sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the repurchase amount of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks reached a high level this year [31][32] - Multiple funds have reported new ETF products [32]

2025 年 11 月 25 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源 iFinD，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 把握边际改善 投 农林牧渔行业 2026 上半年投资策略 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。SW农林牧渔行业跑赢沪深300指数。2025年1-11月 （2025年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体上涨 16.36%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约3.18个百分点。分季度来看，SW 农林牧渔行业Q1下跌0.87%，Q2上涨6.49%，Q3上涨10.95%，10-11 月（截至11月21日）下跌0.65%。估值方面，2025年1-11月（2025 年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体PB（整体法，最 新报告期，剔除负值）由年初的低点2.31倍最高回升至3.06倍。截 至11月21日 ...

11月20日，温氏股份跌0.63%，成交额3.59亿元。两融数据显示，当日温氏股份获融资买入额2671.21万 元，融资偿还3065.87万元，融资净买入-394.66万元。截至11月20日，温氏股份融资融券余额合计8.62 亿元。 融资方面，温氏股份当日融资买入2671.21万元。当前融资余额8.58亿元，占流通市值的0.74%，融资余 额低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 截至9月30日，温氏股份股东户数8.11万，较上期减少10.94%；人均流通股73543股，较上期增加 12.11%。2025年1月-9月，温氏股份实现营业收入758.17亿元，同比增长0.53%；归母净利润52.56亿元， 同比减少17.98%。 分红方面，温氏股份A股上市后累计派现301.10亿元。近三年，累计派现69.35亿元。 融券方面，温氏股份11月20日融券偿还3.76万股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 8710.00元；融券余量23.82万股，融券余额414.94万元，低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司位于广东省云浮市新兴县新城镇东堤北路9号，成立日期1993年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Wens Foodstuff Group, has clarified its international business expansion direction and established an exploration team to facilitate this process [1] - The company will prioritize the overseas expansion of its broiler chicken business, leveraging its experience and channels in animal health, agricultural equipment, and environmental protection [1] - Following the successful expansion of the chicken business, the company plans to gradually extend its operations to the pork and duck industries in international markets, aiming to steadily explore global growth opportunities [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is Wens Food Group Co., Ltd., with stock code 300498 and bond code 123107 [1] - The investor relations activity took place on November 13-14, 2025, in Shenzhen and Beijing, involving multiple institutional investors [2] Group 2: Production and Operations - In October, the production cost of piglets decreased to 250-260 RMB per head, with a market pig listing rate exceeding 93% [2] - The comprehensive cost of meat pig farming was approximately 6.1 RMB per kg, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The chicken production maintained stability, with a market listing rate of 95.4% and a total cost of 5.7 RMB per kg for broilers [3] Group 3: Cost Management - In October, 53% of the sold meat pigs had a comprehensive cost below 6 RMB per kg, and over 90% were below 6.5 RMB per kg [5] - The cost difference among the three pig farming divisions was within 0.3 RMB per kg [5] Group 4: Future Goals and Strategies - The current PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) is around 27, with a medium to long-term goal to exceed 32 [6] - The company aims for a 10% annual growth in the chicken business, utilizing various strategies such as cultural promotion and market expansion [9] - The company plans to explore international markets, starting with chicken and gradually expanding to pig and duck industries [9] Group 5: Market Insights - The company anticipates a weak and fluctuating trend in feed raw material prices in the short term, barring international environmental changes [9]

11月17日，温氏股份盘中下跌2.05%，截至09:55，报17.69元/股，成交2.44亿元，换手率0.23%，总市值 1177.08亿元。 分红方面，温氏股份A股上市后累计派现301.10亿元。近三年，累计派现69.35亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1149.53万元，特大单买入702.43万元，占比2.88%，卖出1445.23万元， 占比5.93%；大单买入4298.48万元，占比17.63%，卖出4705.21万元，占比19.30%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，温氏股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股1.44亿股，相比上期增加550.13万股。易方达创业板ETF（159915）位居第九大流通股 东，持股1.13亿股，相比上期减少1909.10万股。 温氏股份今年以来股价涨10.48%，近5个交易日跌3.33%，近20日跌2.27%，近60日涨3.39%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司位于广东省云浮市新兴县新城镇东堤北路9号，成立日期1993年7 月26日，上市日期2015年11月2日，公司主营业务涉及肉鸡和肉猪养殖及其产品销 ...

Fixed Income - October foreign trade underperformed expectations, while prices showed some recovery, indicating potential economic downward pressure in Q4 [7] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment showed negative growth, suggesting that traditional investment-driven economic models may no longer be sustainable [7] - The consumer sentiment remains low, with October's price recovery being weak, reflecting a lack of domestic economic recovery momentum [7] - The cancellation of tariffs on fentanyl by the US and the extension of the suspension of reciprocal tariffs may provide some support for foreign trade in November and December [7] - The bond market remains optimistic, with the expectation of further policy interest rate cuts as the cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks declines [7] Credit Analysis - The credit spread for most industries has compressed, with significant reductions in city investment bonds [11] - The credit market is expected to maintain a relatively optimistic outlook in November due to several factors, including high historical percentiles for mid-to-long-term credit bonds and a favorable funding environment [14] - The overall credit market saw a decrease in transaction volume, but the credit spreads for various industries showed different degrees of compression [12][14] New Consumption - The beauty market in China showed steady performance, with retail sales of cosmetics growing by 3.9% year-on-year from January to September 2025, outperforming the overall retail sales growth [16] - The personal care segment performed better than the overall beauty market, with significant growth in specific brands driven by product innovation and channel expansion [17] - Domestic leading brands are expected to continue their strong performance due to their multi-faceted advantages in branding, products, channels, and management [18] Food Container Industry - The food container industry is experiencing steady expansion, driven by diverse downstream demand [20] - The global food container market is projected to grow from $163.7 billion in 2024 to $227.3 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.19% [21] - The proposed listing of New Tianli, a leading company in the thermoformed food container industry, is expected to enhance its influence in the market [20][21] Agriculture - The pig breeding industry is undergoing significant policy transformations, with a notable decline in breeding stock and an increase in the culling of sows [25][26] - The price of pork has dropped below the industry cost line, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [26] - The poultry industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with leading companies expected to gain market share [28] - Recommendations include focusing on cost-efficient leading companies in the agriculture sector, which are likely to benefit from policy support and market dynamics [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. has shown a positive trend with a 14.23% increase year-to-date, despite a slight decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Wens achieved a revenue of 758.17 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.53%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.98% to 52.56 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 301.10 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 69.35 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Wens was 81,100, a decrease of 10.94% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 12.11% to 73,543 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 144 million shares, an increase of 5.50 million shares compared to the previous period. Conversely, E Fund's ChiNext ETF reduced its holdings by 19.09 million shares to 113 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 10, Wens' stock price rose by 2.01% to 18.29 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 724 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.67%. The total market capitalization reached 121.7 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 32.71 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities recorded [1].