【摩根大通策略师称对AI颠覆性的担忧过度软件股有望反弹】智通财经2月10日电， 摩根大通策略师表 示，软件股有望从历史性的下跌中反弹，因为市场体现的人工智能短期内颠覆性影响不切实际。由 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas领衔的团队称，随着"极端的价格走势"使得资金至少在短期内有可能轮动回到该 板块，投资者应增加对高质量、对人工智能颠覆性更具抵抗能力的软件股的配置。该团队在一份报告中 写道："鉴于持仓出清、对人工智能颠覆软件行业的前景过度悲观以及基本面稳健，我们认为风险平衡 正越来越偏向反弹。"由于担心新的人工智能工具可能对传统的软件即服务(SaaS)业务造成影响，软件 股近期遭受重创。此次抛售几乎无差别，不论软件公司是否已经与人工智能公司建立了合作关系，或者 拥有专有数据栈。 转自：智通财经 ...

截至第四季度末，年度经常性收入同比增长 6%，至23.9 亿美元。 专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 Trimble周二发布的年度营收与利润预期高于华尔街预估，受益于建筑、交通等行业对其导航产品与软 件解决方案捆绑策略的需求增长。 这家总部位于科罗拉多州威斯敏斯特市的公司，股价在盘前交易中上涨 3.4%。 Trimble正从硬件驱动模式转向软件服务主导模式，旨在即使在经济下行周期也能获得稳定的经常性收 入。 公司还受益于其 "连接规模化" 战略，该战略将硬件、软件与云解决方案在建筑、地理空间及交通行业 进行整合。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据： 客户对公司定位与校正服务、数字化建筑工具及人工智能服务的广泛采用，也推动了经常性收入增长。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据： 客户对公司定位与校正服务、数字化建筑工具及人工智能服务的广泛采用，也推动了经常性收入增长。 截至第四季度末，年度经常性收入同比增长 6%，至23.9 亿美元。 第四季度总营收为9.698 亿美元，高于预估的 9.508 亿美元；调整后每股收益为1 美元，高于预估的 0.96 美元。 第四季度总营收为9.698 亿美元，高于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Smartsheet Inc. class action lawsuit alleges that shareholders were misled during the acquisition process by Blackstone Inc. and Vista Equity Partners, resulting in an unfair cash price for their shares [3][4]. Group 1: Class Action Details - Shareholders who held Smartsheet securities as of October 25, 2024, can seek appointment as lead plaintiff until February 24, 2026 [1]. - The lawsuit is titled Kara Eftimoglu v. Mader, No. 25-cv-02530 (W.D. Wash.) [1]. - The lawsuit claims that a misleading Schedule 14A Proxy statement was issued, leading to the approval of the merger at an unfair price of $56.50 per share [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Smartsheet - The lawsuit alleges that Smartsheet's management promoted its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) metric as a key indicator of future performance, but this was not disclosed in the Proxy [4]. - The Proxy also failed to include January 2024 forecasts, preventing shareholders from fully assessing Smartsheet's financial prospects [4]. Group 3: Legal Process and Firm Background - The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 allows any investor who held Smartsheet securities to seek lead plaintiff status, representing the interests of the class [5]. - Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP is a leading firm in securities fraud litigation, having recovered over $916 million for investors in 2025 alone [6].

Company Overview - ServiceNow (NOW) has experienced a significant downtrend due to a correction in the software landscape, primarily influenced by potential disruptions from large language models (LLMs) [1] Analyst Insights - The analysis focuses on the technology sector, particularly companies involved in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and digital transformation [2] - The investment approach emphasizes understanding business fundamentals and future growth trajectories to identify companies with intrinsic values exceeding their current market values [2] Market Context - The software industry is currently facing challenges, with ServiceNow being impacted by broader market corrections related to technological advancements and disruptions [1]

Core Insights - Upland Software, Inc. has launched AI Conversational Search for its Panviva Sidekick, enhancing knowledge retrieval for enterprises [1] - The new feature integrates natural language processing with trusted organizational data, addressing the challenge of maintaining AI efficiency while ensuring regulatory compliance [1] Company Overview - Upland Software is recognized as a leader in AI-powered knowledge and content management software [1] - The introduction of Panviva Sidekick aims to transform enterprise knowledge retrieval processes [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenue was $953 million, an increase of 29% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance [7][27] - Free cash flow was $291 million, with a free cash flow margin of 31% [8][30] - Gross profit for Q4 was $776 million, with a gross margin percentage of 81.4% [29] - Billings were $1.21 billion, up 34% year-over-year [29] - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) was $3.46 billion, up 52% year-over-year [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure Monitoring contributes over $1.6 billion in ARR [10] - Log Management is now over $1 billion in ARR [10] - APM and DEM products also crossed $1 billion in ARR, with core APM product growth in the mid-30s% year-over-year [10] - 84% of customers used two or more products, up from 83% a year ago [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Datadog ended Q4 with approximately 32,700 customers, up from about 30,000 a year ago [7] - 48% of Fortune 500 companies are Datadog customers, indicating strong market penetration [9] - The median ARR for Fortune 500 customers is still less than $500,000, suggesting significant growth potential [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on digital transformation and cloud migration as long-term growth drivers [25] - Datadog is integrating AI into its platform to enhance customer value and outcomes [25] - The company aims to solve end-to-end problems across software development, production, data stack, user experience, and security needs [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted broad-based positive trends in demand driven by cloud migration [5] - There is an expectation of increased AI usage among customers, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [26] - The company is optimistic about its ability to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver value to customers [25] Other Important Information - The company released over 400 new features and capabilities in 2025 [11] - Datadog launched several new products, including Data Observability and enhanced security features [16][17] - The company is seeing strong growth dynamics with its core observability pillars as customers adopt modern technologies [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Observability's future in the context of advancements in AI - Management believes that increased productivity from AI will lead to more complexity, which observability can help manage [38][39] Question: Evolution of observability with human and agentic SREs - The company is preparing for more automation and is building products to satisfy both human and agentic interactions [41][42] Question: Insights on the eight-figure deal with an AI model company - The deal reflects the value Datadog provides over homegrown solutions, as companies recognize the cost of internal development [46][47] Question: LLMs as anomaly detection tools and Datadog's competitive moat - Management sees LLMs improving but believes Datadog's ability to provide context and proactive solutions is a significant advantage [51][55] Question: Guidance assumptions for 2026 - The company has taken a conservative approach in its guidance, expecting at least 20% growth excluding its largest customer [62] Question: Impact of LLM rise on competition - Management does not see significant changes in competition and believes Datadog is well-positioned to capture market share [68][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenue was $953 million, an increase of 29% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance [7][27] - Free cash flow was $291 million, with a free cash flow margin of 31% [8][30] - Gross profit for Q4 was $776 million, with a gross margin percentage of 81.4% [29] - Billings were $1.21 billion, up 34% year-over-year [29] - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) was $3.46 billion, up 52% year-over-year [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure Monitoring contributes over $1.6 billion in ARR [10] - Log Management is now over $1 billion in ARR [10] - APM and DEM products also crossed $1 billion in ARR, with core APM product growth in the mid-30s% year-over-year [10] - 84% of customers used two or more products, up from 83% a year ago [8] - 55% of customers used four or more products, up from 50% a year ago [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 48% of the Fortune 500 are Datadog customers, indicating strong market penetration [9] - The median ARR for Fortune 500 customers is still less than $500,000, suggesting significant growth potential [9] - Approximately 650 AI-native customers are using Datadog, with 19 customers spending $1 million or more annually [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on digital transformation and cloud migration as long-term growth drivers [25] - Plans to integrate AI into the Datadog platform to enhance customer value and outcomes [25] - The company aims to expand its platform to address end-to-end customer needs across software development, production, data stack, user experience, and security [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ongoing momentum of cloud migration and the acceleration of revenue growth [5] - The company anticipates continued strong adoption among AI-native customers, with growth significantly outpacing the rest of the business [27] - Management expects revenues for Q1 2026 to be in the range of $951 million to $961 million, representing 25%-26% year-over-year growth [31] Other Important Information - The company released over 400 new features and capabilities in 2025 [11] - Significant growth in AI-related products, with over 5,500 customers using Datadog AI integrations [15] - The company launched Data Observability for end-to-end visibility across the data lifecycle [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Observability's Future in the Context of AI - Management believes that the rise of AI will increase the complexity of systems, necessitating enhanced observability tools [39][40] Question: Evolution of UI and Workflows with AI - Management acknowledged that there will be an evolution in UI and workflows to accommodate both human and agentic SREs [41][42] Question: AI Customer Concentration and Growth - Management noted that the AI cohort is diversified, with significant growth among various customers [62][81] Question: Competition and Market Dynamics - Management stated that competition remains stable, with no significant changes in market dynamics due to the rise of LLMs [68][69] Question: CapEx Trends and Future Revenue - Management indicated that while CapEx trends are significant, it is challenging to directly correlate them to LLM observability revenue [75] Question: Diversifying AI Customer Base - Management emphasized that the company is not reliant on a few customers and is seeing growth across a broad range of AI customers [78][81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $970 million, a 9% increase year-over-year, and full-year revenue of $3.57 billion, up 10% [3][21] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 14% to $2.39 billion, with a notable 16% increase in the AECO segment and a 20% increase in field systems [3][21] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1, up 12%, and for the year was $3.13, up 10% [3][22] - Gross margins expanded to 74.6%, and EBITDA margins reached 33.5% for the quarter [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - AECO segment delivered $454 million in revenue, up 15%, and ARR of $1.48 billion, up 16% [6][24] - Field systems revenue was $379 million, up 4%, and ARR was $409 million, up 20% [11][24] - Transportation and logistics segment reported revenue growth of 4% and ARR growth of 7% [15][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a strong performance in the machine control guidance as a service and growth in the automotive and geospatial markets [31] - The transportation market remains challenged, but the company continues to grow despite these conditions [15][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a "connect and scale" strategy, integrating hardware and software to enhance customer outcomes [4][27] - There is a strong emphasis on AI as a force multiplier to accelerate value delivery across the business [4][9] - The company aims to expand its recurring revenue base, which has increased from 40% to 65% of total revenue [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory towards achieving $3 billion in ARR and $4 billion in revenue by 2027 [22][25] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain consistent, with some challenges in the freight market and muted federal government business [44] - Management anticipates continued strong growth in the field systems segment, despite a natural deceleration in ARR growth due to prior conversions [31][32] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $148 million worth of shares in the fourth quarter, reflecting confidence in long-term value [19] - The company has a substantial $925 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the strengths in field systems ARR growth? - Management noted strong performance in machine control guidance as a service and growth in automotive and geospatial markets [31] Question: How will the construction industry adopt Agentic AI? - Management believes Trimble platforms are well-positioned for customers to adopt Agentic workflows, leveraging existing data and relationships [35][36] Question: What are the assumptions for the macro environment in 2026 guidance? - Management expects a consistent macro environment with challenges in the freight market and pockets of strength in construction [44] Question: Where are new customers coming from in AECO? - New customers are coming from geographic expansion and product penetration, with a strong adoption of bundled offerings [47][48] Question: How does the company plan to monetize AI features? - Monetization will include consumption models and tiered offerings, with a focus on integrating AI capabilities into existing solutions [37][71] Question: What is the technology infrastructure readiness for AI features? - The company is already on a path to be AI-ready, having invested in the necessary technology infrastructure over the past few years [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full year 2025 organic revenues increased by 5.5% to $1,128 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $405 million, up approximately 8% after adjusting for the impact of the EVERFI divestiture [18][19] - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 35.9%, up 220 basis points from 2024 [19] - Non-GAAP EPS rose to $4.45, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 12% [19] - Adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $208 million, exceeding the high end of the revised guidance range [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to invest in AI capabilities, enhancing product offerings and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [5][10] - The average daily usage of AI chat features grew five times since October, with over half of Raiser's Edge NXT customers utilizing machine learning-enabled donor prospecting [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nonprofits are experiencing varying levels of stress, with some facing reduced government grants, but overall, the demand for Blackbaud's platform remains strong as customers rely more on it for donations [48] - The company has not seen any customers go out of business, indicating resilience in the market [49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blackbaud aims to achieve organic total revenue growth of 4%-6% from 2026 to 2030, with potential upside from new product launches [30] - The company is targeting Adjusted EBITDA growth of 6%-8% CAGR between 2026 and 2030, while expanding the Adjusted EBITDA margin to over 40% [30] - A significant focus on AI and operational efficiency is expected to drive future growth and profitability [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current economic conditions without significant adverse impacts on revenue [21] - The company anticipates a slightly tougher comparison in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 due to strong transactional revenue performance in the previous year [22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 8% of its common stock in 2025, following an 11% repurchase in 2024 [20] - A new phase of workforce strategy is being introduced, including expansion into India, which is expected to provide long-term benefits [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI pricing and customer adoption - Management indicated that the pricing model discussed pertains to the development agent, with expectations for future products to follow [38] Question: Customer retention and renewal trends - Renewals remain strong, with over 20% of customers opting for four-year or longer contracts, indicating confidence in the company's offerings [40] Question: Current market stress for nonprofits - Management noted that while some nonprofits are facing funding challenges, the reliance on Blackbaud's platform has increased, benefiting the company [48] Question: Contribution to long-term revenue growth - Management clarified that new AI products are not included in the long-term guidance, but there are opportunities for price increases, new logos, and cross-selling [52]

Core Viewpoint - Workday's stock price has entered a technical bear market, declining from a peak of $310 in 2024 to its current price of $155, marking its lowest level since 2024 and presenting a potential buying opportunity [1] Group 1 - Workday's stock has decreased significantly, indicating a drop of approximately 50% from its all-time high [1] - The current stock price of $155 is seen as a bargain compared to its previous record [1]