Core Insights - TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) experienced a share price increase of 7.32% from October 10 to October 17, 2025, ranking among the top gaining energy stocks during that week [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - TotalEnergies expects its oil and gas production for Q3 to reach 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase and exceeding its annual and quarterly guidance of more than 3% [3]. - The company anticipates growth in Q3 earnings and cash flow compared to the same period last year, driven by increased production and higher refining margins, despite a $10 per barrel decline in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - On October 10, 2025, Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng raised the price target for TotalEnergies from $65 to $67 while maintaining a 'Sector Perform' rating on the shares, following an update of price targets for US Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap E&P stocks [4].

Core Insights - Global equity markets experienced broad positive returns in Q3 2025, driven by resilient corporate earnings, enthusiasm for AI, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year [3][21] - Emerging markets, particularly China, led the gains, supported by a U.S. trade truce and strength in the tech sector [3][4] - The Polaris Global Equity Composite gained 5.04% (net of fees) for the quarter, underperforming the MSCI World Index, which returned 7.36% [5][6] Market Performance - Developed markets saw weaker currencies benefiting export-oriented indices, with Japan's TOPIX Index up 11.0% and the U.K.'s FTSE All-Share Index up 6.9% [4] - The U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500 Index, gained over 8%, primarily due to tech and communication stocks [4] - France and Germany underperformed due to geopolitical and fiscal concerns, with tepid growth projections under new U.S. trade policy [4] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector was the best performer, with notable gains from pharmaceutical stocks, while financials, consumer discretionary, and IT also contributed positively [5][6] - Health insurers faced challenges, with UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health posting over 10% returns, while Elevance Health's shares dropped sharply due to profit guidance cuts [7] - In IT, Samsung Electronics excelled with strong performance in HBM technology and a significant deal with Tesla for AI chip manufacturing [11] Company Highlights - United Therapeutics Corp. was a top contributor to portfolio performance, driven by positive clinical trial results for its drug Tyvaso, potentially adding $4-5 billion in peak sales [6] - AbbVie, Inc. expects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, with flagship drugs projected to exceed $31 billion in sales by 2027 [6] - The Carlyle Group Inc. outperformed in the financial sector, up over 20% due to strong fee-based credit and secondaries business [8] Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a "two-speed" economy, with a concentrated AI-driven boom amidst subdued growth in other sectors [21][22] - Financials are seen as attractive due to stable net interest margins and loan growth, while defensives like consumer staples and healthcare are expected to perform well [22] - Opportunities in economically-sensitive sectors are being explored, with a focus on industrials benefiting from AI integration and supply chain modernization [22][23]

All right, let's talk energy now because your next guest just launched coverage of some big oil and gas companies for Wells Fargo. The report is titled, "Don't feed the bears, pay them dividends." Sam Margolan covering oil and gas for Wells Fargo joining us now. Sam, uh, welcome.On the big integrated side, you like Chevron, Exon, and Marathon Petroleum. Why are those stocks overweights right now even as the price of oil goes down almost every day. >> Yeah.Hey, thanks for having me. Um, you're right, the env ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The oil market is currently oversupplied, leading to a challenging environment for the sector [2] - There is a risk of downside asymmetrically in the near term, prompting a focus on identifying stocks that can grow dividends [3] Group 2: Company Recommendations - Wells Fargo has an overweight rating on major integrated oil companies such as Chevron, Exxon, and Marathon Petroleum, despite declining oil prices [1][4] - The refining sector is also highlighted, with companies like Dell, Philip 66, and Valero performing well [6] Group 3: Refining and Gasoline Prices - The refining environment is better than that for crude oil, but refining margins need to increase significantly to impact retail gasoline prices [7] - Retail gasoline prices are primarily driven by inflation and increased retail margins at convenience stores, rather than just refining margins [8]

Core Insights - Analysts are optimistic about Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), suggesting a potential breakout due to insider buying and activist involvement [1] - Elliott Management, a prominent activist hedge fund, has taken two board seats and believes the stock should be valued at $200 [1] - Recent insider purchases, including a $1 million buy by a board director, indicate confidence in the company's future [1] Analyst Commentary - Josh Brown from Ritholtz Wealth Management highlighted the significance of insider buying as a bullish signal for Phillips 66 [1] - The stock has not yet experienced a breakout, but there are expectations that it will follow the upward trends of peers like Marathon and Valero [1] - A suggested risk management strategy includes monitoring the stock around the $120 level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average [1] Investment Strategy - Aristotle Capital's Value Equity Strategy has divested from Phillips 66, reallocating funds into Lowe's Companies and TotalEnergies [2][3]

Refined Fuel Exports - Russian refined fuel exports have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the Ukraine war [1] - This decline highlights the ongoing pressure on Russian refineries due to drone attacks [1]

Core Insights - Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM) has reached $100 million in assets under management as of September 23, 2025, and is the only ETF providing pure-play exposure to critical materials and mining equities essential for energy generation, transmission, and storage [1][2]. Investment Opportunity - The growing gap between supply and demand for materials essential to electrification is prompting nations to focus on energy security and resource nationalism, creating investment opportunities in the critical materials sector [2]. - SETM's index methodology ensures that only companies with a majority of their business operations related to critical materials are included, focusing on those involved in mining, exploration, development, production, recycling, refining, or smelting [2]. ETF Suite Overview - SETM is part of a suite of seven Sprott Critical Materials ETFs, which combine the benefits of ETFs with exposure to various critical materials and their miners [3]. - The suite includes ETFs focused on uranium, copper, lithium, nickel, and other critical materials, each designed to track specific indices related to their respective sectors [3][4]. Company Background - Sprott Asset Management USA, Inc. is a global asset manager specializing in precious metals and critical materials investments, with a focus on providing in-depth knowledge and experience in the sector [6].

Industry Impact - Ukrainian drone strikes are expected to suppress Russia's refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026 [1]

Summary of Key Takeaways from Brazilian Corporates Conference Call Industry Overview - **Investor Trip**: BofA's 12th Brazil investor trip highlighted a stark sectoral divide and a defensive corporate posture among Brazilian corporates, with a focus on deleveraging and liquidity preservation in a challenging environment [1][2][3] - **Corporate Bond Performance**: Brazilian corporate bonds (EBRZ index) have underperformed with a total return of +3.5% YTD compared to LatAm (+8.9%) and EM (+7.5%) [1] Core Themes - **Deleveraging Strategy**: Companies are prioritizing deleveraging due to increased leverage and high local interest rates (15%), leading to postponed investments and accelerated asset sales [3][4] - **Sectoral Divide**: Sectors like Oil & Gas services, protein, and logistics are performing well, while industrial sectors such as steel and petrochemicals face margin compression due to low-cost imports, particularly from China [4][11] Credit Events and Market Sentiment - **Contagion Fears**: Recent credit events at Ambipar and Braskem have heightened investor scrutiny on balance sheets, potentially leading to a broader repricing of risk [2][4] - **Investor Preferences**: There is a growing emphasis on transparent governance and conservative financial policies among investors [2] Sector-Specific Insights - **Pulp & Paper**: The sector is navigating a downturn in pulp prices, with Suzano taking a leadership role through capacity cuts and diversification into consumer tissue [10] - **Metals & Mining**: The steel market is under pressure from Chinese oversupply, impacting CSN and Gerdau, while Vale remains focused on shareholder returns [11] - **Banking**: A bifurcation in credit quality is evident, with Itaú managing risks effectively while Banco do Brasil faces challenges in its agribusiness portfolio [12][51] - **Oil & Gas**: Petrobras is balancing investments with shareholder returns amid volatile Brent prices, while companies like Acelen are experiencing operational momentum [13][26] - **Agribusiness**: Adecoagro is facing significant margin squeezes despite high production volumes, with a focus on strategic acquisitions [19][37] Financial Health and Projections - **Banco do Brasil**: NPLs in agribusiness have reached 3.5%, prompting increased provisions to R$56 billion, with government intervention expected to stabilize the situation [51][52] - **Braskem**: The company is in crisis management mode, facing a prolonged downturn and cash burn estimated at $1 billion for 2025 [55][57] - **Acelen**: The refinery reported a significant reduction in operating costs from over $12/bbl in 2022 to $7.8/bbl in 1H25, with a positive outlook for diesel prices [26][27][33] Strategic Initiatives - **Acelen Renewables**: Plans for a $3 billion refinery project to produce sustainable aviation fuel and hydrotreated vegetable oil are underway [36] - **Adecoagro's Acquisition**: The acquisition of a stake in Profertil is seen as strategically beneficial despite potential near-term credit pressures [39][40] Conclusion - The Brazilian corporate landscape is characterized by a defensive posture, aggressive deleveraging strategies, and a clear sectoral divide influenced by both domestic and global economic factors. Investors are increasingly cautious, focusing on governance and financial health as key determinants for future investments.

Core Insights - ExxonMobil has restarted the gasoline-producing fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) at its Beaumont, Texas refinery after a brief unexpected shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Incident Overview - The FCCU, with a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day, went offline due to a malfunction, causing visible flaring across the refinery [2] - The shutdown lasted approximately two days, with the unit brought back online late Thursday [2][3] Group 2: Refinery Significance - The Beaumont facility is one of the largest in the U.S., currently operating at 612,000 barrels per day, producing significant volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [3] - The FCCU plays a crucial role in converting heavy gas oils into high-value gasoline blendstocks for U.S. fuel markets [3] Group 3: Market Implications - Any prolonged outage could disrupt gasoline supply chains, especially as inventories are tight heading into the winter blend transition [4] - Current Gulf Coast gasoline stockpiles are near their five-year average, and refiners are preparing for seasonal maintenance amid weaker demand signals [4] - Market reaction to the incident was muted, indicating expectations for a quick normalization of output [4][5] Group 4: Industry Context - The incident highlights the finely tuned nature of U.S. refining capacity, where even minor mechanical failures can impact market stability [5] - The Beaumont complex's recent expansion to process more domestic light crude is critical for maintaining balance in the refining sector [5][6]