Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The IEA has cumulatively revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with the latest monthly report projecting demand increments of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to weak performance across major economies and low consumer confidence, particularly in emerging markets [1][11] - On the supply side, the IEA has raised the 2025 crude oil supply increment by 370,000 barrels per day and 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, driven by OPEC's accelerated easing of voluntary production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [2][21] - Refining margins improved in July, reaching the highest level in the Atlantic Basin since Q1 2024, primarily due to an increase in diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads narrowed and Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads fell to six-month lows [3][35] - Oil inventories have increased for five consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 900,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 7,836 million barrels, the highest level in 46 months, although still below the five-year average [4][39] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The IEA has revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day year-to-date, with a forecast of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to general economic performance and low consumer confidence in emerging markets [1][11] - OECD countries, particularly Europe, have shown better-than-expected demand due to monetary easing and fiscal support, while non-OECD countries, especially China and Brazil, have seen a slowdown in demand growth [15][17] - In Q2 2025, demand from OECD Asia is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day, with Japan and South Korea experiencing significant drops [16] Supply Side - The IEA has adjusted the 2025 crude oil supply increment upwards by 370,000 barrels per day, with a further increase of 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, attributed to OPEC's easing of production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production [2][21] - OPEC+ production decreased by 250,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia's production declining significantly, while UAE and Iran have increased their output [26][29] - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Brazil and Guyana, are expected to contribute significantly to supply growth, with Brazil's production reaching historical highs [32][34] Refining - Refining margins in July reached their highest level since Q1 2024, driven by rising diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads have narrowed [3][35] Inventory - Oil inventories have risen for five consecutive months, with a notable increase in June, primarily driven by inventory builds in China and the U.S. [4][39]

Group 1: Report Core View - Overnight crude oil oscillated and closed lower, with weakening momentum and a short - term bearish trend. Despite a temporary rebound due to improved risk appetite in the financial market, the overall tone is turning weak. Without new positive factors, there is a risk of further price decline [3] - Although it is the peak demand season from July to August, demand in China and the US has reached its peak with limited growth space and will face a seasonal decline, which is unfavorable for bulls [3] - EIA data shows that the operating rate and processing volume of US refineries are at their peak, and the demand for major oil products such as gasoline is weak, indicating that the peak - season logic may be over [3] - Global inventories are increasing, and the supply - demand balance is relatively stable. With OPEC+ increasing production and a decline in US demand after September, the fundamentals will weaken [3] - Geopolitical risks can only cause short - term disturbances, and there is a risk of a restart of the tariff war in trade negotiations [3] - The low inventory in the US is due to active destocking, and increased exports are squeezing OPEC+ market share, which may intensify future market competition [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - For the week ending July 11, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels (expected - 0.552 million barrels, previous value + 7.07 million barrels), strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.3 million barrels (previous value + 0.238 million barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.213 million barrels (previous value + 0.464 million barrels), gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels (expected - 0.952 million barrels, previous value - 2.658 million barrels), and refined oil inventory increased by 4.173 million barrels (expected + 0.199 million barrels, previous value - 0.825 million barrels) [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.366 million barrels per day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 0.761 million barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [4] - The refinery operating rate was 93.9% (expected 94.5%, previous value 94.7%) [4] Group 3: EIA Weekly Data Review - The EIA data update showed a mixed situation, with an increase in transportation fuel inventory being more bearish, except for fuel oil whose inventory continued to hit multi - year lows [5] - US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels in a single week and is slightly below the 5 - year average. Refinery throughput decreased by 150,000 barrels per day, consistent with the 2024 seasonal normal level [5] - Fuel oil inventory decreased by 700,000 barrels, 27% lower than the 5 - year range; aviation fuel output remained high, driving a 570,000 - barrel increase in inventory in a single week [5] - As transportation fuel inventory continues to accumulate, the recent upward trend in refining profit margins along the US Gulf Coast may end, and gasoline and diesel prices may decline from current highs [6] Group 4: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - Brent crude oil M + 2 was at $68.52 on July 16, down $0.19 from the previous day and $1.67 from the previous week [7] - WTI crude oil M + 2 was at $65.19 on July 16, down $0.18 from the previous day and $1.78 from the previous week [7] - SC crude oil M + 2 was at 504.7 yuan on July 16, down 2.3 yuan from the previous day and 6.3 yuan from the previous week [7] - Dubai crude oil M + 2 was at $66.89 on July 16, down $0.23 from the previous day and $1.35 from the previous week [7] - Oman crude oil M + 2 was at $69.99 on July 16, down $0.34 from the previous day and $1.72 from the previous week [7] - Murban crude oil M + 2 was at $69.81 on July 16, down $0.29 from the previous day and $1.68 from the previous week [7] - EFS spread M + 2 was at $1.63 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.32 from the previous week [7] - Brent monthly spread (M + 2 - M + 3) was at $0.97 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.18 from the previous week [7] - Oman monthly spread (M + 2 - M - 3) was at $1.63 on July 16, down $0.26 from the previous day and down $0.31 from the previous week [7] - Dubai monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at $0.82 on July 16, down $0.08 from the previous day and down $0.21 from the previous week [7] - SC monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at 10.2 yuan on July 16, down 2.7 yuan from the previous day and up 5.8 yuan from the previous week [7] - SC - Dubai (M + 2) was at $3.6658 on July 16, up $0.0699 from the previous day and up $2.1228 from the previous week [7] - SC - Oman (M + 2) was at $0.6058 on July 16, up $0.0599 from the previous day and up $2.6028 from the previous week [7]

根据Systematix的分析，首选投资标的包括Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)、GAIL India Ltd (GAIL)、Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL)以及Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd (GOLI)。 据印度ANI通讯社6月9日发布的报道，Systematix Institutional Equities的研究报告指出，尽管上月石油和天然气市场经历了剧烈波动，但印度石油和天然气行 业有望在2026财年和2027财年实现显著增长。 报道显示，该行业内公司预计在2026财年将实现平均销售额、EBITDA和PAT分别同比增长6%、12.9%和13.3%，而在2027财年则预计分别增长7.8%、9%和 10.1%。 研究表明，市场波动显著，原油价格下跌的影响被炼油利润率的大幅回升所平衡。受沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋等欧佩克成员国增产影响，2025年5月布伦特原油 价格同比大幅下降22.9%，环比下滑3.8%。同期，全球液体燃料需求先降后升。原油价格走低导致美国钻井数量减少，表明上游投资趋于谨慎。然而，企业 基准炼油毛利率（GRM）却显著提升，环比增长 ...