科技为国而商，为需而兴——2025年中国商业科技的发展与2026年展望 崔传刚 新经济学家智库特约研究员 2025年，由中美主导的全球商业科技竞争，已经进入"近身博弈"的深化期，与此同时，中国科创力量在商业化赛道的强势崛起，正成为重塑全球产业格局 的关键变量。从人工智能大模型的规模化落地到人形机器人产业的场景渗透，从商业航天的规模化运营到"太空经济"的多元探索，以至于半导体芯片的自 主突破与光刻机的技术攻坚，中国的商业科技产业正在以一种"技术突破—场景验证—商业变现"的闭环发展模式，勾勒出前途远大的发展图景。 在这一年，中国的商业科技与实体经济持续深度融合，既加速推动了新质生产力的形成、夯实了中国的硬经济根基，更鲜明呈现出一种核心趋势：中国科 技商业化的进程不再仅局限于单纯经济价值的创造，而是已然与国家的战略需求形成高度协同。在一系列的关键领域，科技商业化和国家战略已形成 了"产业赋能国家、国家支撑产业"的良性互动态势，商业价值的创造与国家利益的增进正变得越发同步。 这一趋势，可以说是全球科技竞争逻辑演变的一种必然结果，同时也深受各国产业发展的客观差异影响。 来源：经济学家圈 从国际视野看，科技中立主义正日渐 ...

Core Insights - Tesla Inc.'s share price has decreased by 6.4% in the past week due to warnings of a significant drop in fourth-quarter deliveries and a supplier contract restatement indicating declining demand for the Cybertruck, although the stock remains 43.1% higher than six months ago [1] - The stock is only 8.9% higher than a year ago, underperforming the Nasdaq, but has seen a remarkable increase of 28,500% since its IPO in June 2010 [2] - Investors are focused on Tesla's future performance over the next one, five, and ten years, with a consensus that long-term projections are more relevant than short-term forecasts [3] Tesla's Recent Success - Tesla has achieved revenue and earnings growth even in high-interest-rate environments, with its Model S and Model 3 being top-selling electric vehicles in their respective years [4] - The company has seen revenue growth from its energy storage business and charging station network [5] Financial Performance - Tesla's revenue and net income have shown significant growth over the years, with revenues increasing from $4.046 billion in 2015 to $96.773 billion in 2023, and net income rising from $888.7 million in 2015 to $14.997 billion in 2023 [6] Key Drivers for Performance - Improved margins due to cost-cutting measures and the establishment of gigafactories in Shanghai and Berlin are expected to enhance sales and reduce export-related costs [7] - Research and development in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technologies position Tesla ahead of competitors, with plans for 500 robotaxis in Austin and 1,000 in Silicon Valley by year-end [8] - Tesla's diversified business segments, including Supercharger, energy, and battery businesses, contribute to its competitive edge [9] - Plans for a large Optimus robot production line in Fremont, California, indicate further expansion [10] Stock Forecast - Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $399.15 per share, which is 12.2% lower than the recent closing price, with several firms maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings [11] - A forecast through 2030 suggests revenue growth from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, with normalized EPS growth projected from $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 in 2030 [12]

赛力斯 ：12月新车交付超57000台，再创单月交付新高。2025年新车交付超42万台。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is currently valued at a level that assumes flawless execution across various speculative ventures, indicating a lack of margin for error in its operations [1]. Group 1: Company Fundamentals - The analysis will focus on Tesla's fundamentals and assess its valuations against a specific scenario [1]. Group 2: Analyst Perspective - The analyst specializes in fixed income and commodities, with occasional stock picking, primarily focusing on medium to long-term horizons while also considering short-term price movements [1]. - The analysis is value-driven and contrarian, targeting mispriced assets [1].

IT之家 1 月 1 日消息，蔚来滇藏换电路线今日正式贯通，全程超 2700 公里，沿途布局 19 座蔚来换电站。蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO 李斌今日进行直 播，全程换电直达梅里雪山。 蔚来五代换电站兼容蔚来、乐道、萤火虫三大品牌，将方便萤火虫小车的用户。 萤火虫总裁金舸曾在 2025 年 4 月透露，萤火虫一开始计划是做集装箱式换电站，后来重新计算认为单靠萤火虫无法构建新的网络。新的计划是萤火虫的 换电 2026 年年初会并入蔚来五代站，五代站将包含 3 个品牌的服务。 在直播中，李斌谈到了蔚来 2026 年的换电站建设进展，表示 2026 年目标建设至少 1000 座五代换电站。 据IT之家此前报道，2025 年 12 月，蔚来公司交付新车 48135 辆，创历史新高，同比增长 54.6%。 蔚来品牌交付 31897 辆，创历史新高，同比增长 54.8%，交付量连续五个月增长； 乐道品牌交付新车 9154 辆； firefly 萤火虫品牌交付新车 7084 辆，创历史新高，环比增长 16.4%，交付量连续五个月增长。 ...

人民财讯1月1日电，奇瑞集团2025年12月单月汽车销售244928辆，集团全年累计销售汽车2806393辆， 同比增长7.8%，其中，奇瑞汽车股份有限公司全年销售汽车2631381辆，同比增长8%。在销量、出口、 新能源、品质表现四大领域，奇瑞集团均创造了历史新高。 ...

Core Insights - Elon Musk donated approximately 210,000 Tesla shares valued at nearly $100 million to undisclosed charities as part of year-end tax planning [1] - Musk's wealth is estimated at $619 billion, making the donation a small fraction of his overall net worth [2] - The donation comes as Musk seeks to strengthen his control over Tesla, where he has been CEO since 2008 [2] Company Control and Strategy - Musk has expressed concerns about not owning enough voting shares in Tesla, stating he would not feel comfortable expanding AI and robotics initiatives without controlling at least 25% of the company [3] - A new pay package approved by Tesla shareholders could potentially increase Musk's stake from 13% to nearly 29% if the company meets ambitious milestones [3][4] Financial Performance and Market Outlook - Tesla is expected to report annual sales figures soon, with an unusual pessimistic analyst consensus predicting a second consecutive year of sales decline [4] - The company has faced challenges with sales falling in China and Europe, despite a record high stock price driven by investor optimism regarding its robotaxi initiatives [5]

人民财讯1月1日电，阿维塔12月销量10470辆，连续10个月销量破万，全年累计突破12万辆。 ...

智通财经APP讯，奇瑞汽车(09973)发布公告，集团于2025年12月的五大品牌总销量为23.23万辆汽车， 较去年同期减少约16%。其中：新能源销量8.33万辆，出口销量14.05万辆。 ...

比亚迪李云飞：比亚迪海外年销量首次突破100万辆，同比增长145%。 63,@比亚迪李云飞 ...