Power plant coal prices in China have risen to the highest level since March, as downpours in mining areas disrupt output and scorching heat in cities boosts cooling demand for the fuel https://t.co/WIRxPMiV9j ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 13 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡走高，沪指七连阳再创年内新高 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3665.92 | 0.50% | 18.37 | | | 深证成指 | 11351.63 | 0.53% | 60.21 | | | 沪深 300 | 4143.83 | 0.52% | 21.31 | | | 创业板 | 2409.40 | 1.24% | 29.58 | | | 科创 50 | 1069.81 | 1.91% | 20.08 | | | 北证 50 | 1449.63 | -0.62% | -9.09 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.24% | ...

Summary of Conference Call on China's Anti-Involution and Supply-Side Reform Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Materials** sector, particularly the implications of the **anti-involution** campaign and supply-side reforms across various industries including **steel**, **cement**, **coal**, **lithium**, and **waterproofing materials** [1][2][3][4][10][11]. Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Campaign - The anti-involution campaign is perceived to be more complex and less effective than previous supply-side reforms from 2015-2018, but it is expected to have a quicker impact on upstream industries due to improved supply control experience [1][2]. - The campaign aims to regulate excessive competition, with various industrial regulators and associations actively involved in consultations and proposals [2]. Steel Industry - A target of approximately **30 million tons** (mnt) production cut was communicated to steel mills, with a **1%** reduction in pig iron production year-to-date (YTD) [2][16]. - Steel margins have improved significantly, recovering to over **Rmb 400/ton** from **Rmb 150/ton** earlier in the year, despite rising raw material prices [2]. - Further production cuts of **10-20 mnt** are anticipated for the remainder of the year, aligning with declining domestic and overseas demand [2][16]. Cement Industry - Cement is the first industry to implement anti-involution policies, with a **20%** cut in overproduction mandated by the end of 2025 [3][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has set stricter requirements for capacity swaps to address the **20%** overproduction at the industry level [3][13]. Coal Industry - The National Energy Administration has initiated checks on coal overproduction, focusing on whether production exceeds designed capacities by **10%** [4][17]. - The impact of these checks is expected to be minor, as over **70%** of coal capacity is owned by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that operate within designed capacities [4][17]. Lithium Industry - Recent enforcement of mining regulations may disrupt lithium production, with specific projects facing suspension due to licensing issues [10][22]. - These disruptions could tighten supply and support price increases in the short term, although lithium is not a primary target of the anti-involution campaign [10][23]. Waterproofing Materials - The waterproofing materials sector has seen significant price competition, leading to market consolidation, with leading players increasing their market share from **20%** in 2021 to **45%** in 2024 [11][21]. - Price hikes have been announced by major companies in response to anti-involution messaging, which is expected to improve industry margins [11][21]. Potential Beneficiaries - Key beneficiaries of the anti-involution measures include **Anhui Conch**, **China National Building Material (CNBM)** in the cement sector, and **Baosteel** in the steel sector, which are expected to see margin expansion and improved supply-demand balance [27][28][41]. Risks and Considerations - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand and stricter production suspensions [29][30][31]. - Downside risks involve weaker property demand and potential government intervention in pricing [32][33][34]. Conclusion - The anti-involution campaign is set to reshape the landscape of several key industries in China, with varying degrees of impact expected across sectors. The focus on supply-side reforms aims to address overproduction and improve profitability, particularly in cement and steel, while also posing risks that investors should monitor closely.

Core Viewpoint - Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) reported a decline in net income and revenues for Q2 2025, primarily due to weaker coal and soda ash prices, but still managed to generate significant free cash flow [2][8][13] Financial Performance - NRP's net income for Q2 2025 was $34.2 million, a decrease of 25.7% from $46.1 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Total revenues fell 23.6% year over year to $50.1 million, influenced by lower metallurgical and thermal coal prices and reduced soda ash sales prices [2][8] - Diluted earnings per common unit increased to $2.52 from $2.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Operating cash flow decreased to $45.6 million from $56.6 million, while free cash flow dropped to $46.3 million from $57.3 million [2] Segment Performance - The Mineral Rights segment, the largest contributor, saw net income decline by $13 million to $39.7 million, with coal royalty revenues per ton averaging $5.17, down from $5.98 a year ago [3] - The Soda Ash segment recorded net income of $2.5 million, down $1.1 million due to lower sales prices amid global oversupply [4] - Corporate and Financing segment improved net income by $2.3 million, aided by lower interest expenses [5] Management Insights - Management emphasized the resilience of free cash flow generation, reporting $46 million for the quarter and $203 million over the last 12 months, attributed to a decade-long deleveraging strategy [6] - Expectations are set to pay off nearly all debt by mid-2026 and to begin increasing unitholder distributions by August 2026 [7][10] Market Conditions - Current market conditions for coal and soda ash remain challenging, with excess supply and low prices expected to persist [11] - Factors contributing to revenue and profit declines include stagnant steel demand, high thermal coal inventories, and reduced soda ash demand due to sluggish construction activity [8] Future Outlook - NRP is on track to eliminate nearly all debt by mid-2026, which would allow for significant increases in distributions starting August 2026 [10] - Management anticipates that metallurgical and thermal coal pricing will remain muted through year-end, with soda ash markets unlikely to recover until supply rationalization occurs [11] Other Developments - NRP declared a second-quarter 2025 cash distribution of 75 cents per common unit, consistent with the first quarter of 2025 [12] - There has been no significant progress in carbon-neutral initiatives during the period, although long-term opportunities are still recognized [12]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua Energy plans to acquire coal-related assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Corporation, to enhance its integrated operations and mitigate intra-group competition [1][4]. Group 1: Asset Acquisitions - The acquisition includes 13 assets: six coal mines, one integrated coal-power asset, two coal chemicals projects, and four logistics assets, with a total coal capacity potentially exceeding 0.25 billion tonnes (bnt) and output over 0.2 bnt [1]. - The acquired assets have over 15 GW of coal-fired power capacity, compared to Shenhua's existing capacity of 21.75 GW in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Financial Data - The combined return on equity (ROE) of the acquired assets is less than 10%, with a liability-to-asset ratio exceeding 50%, while Shenhua's ROE and average liability-to-asset ratio were 15% and 25% from 2021 to 2024 [2]. - The total net assets of the 13 assets are estimated between RMB 100 billion and 150 billion, with the consideration for these assets projected at RMB 150 billion if priced at 1x price-to-book (P/B) [3]. Group 3: Management Guidance - Management aims to enhance earnings per share (EPS) and maintain high-return, sustainable dividend payments, committing to exceed previous dividend payout levels [4]. - The firm plans to raise the minimum payout ratio from 60% to 65% for the years 2025-2027 [4].

Shanxi is China’s slowest-growing province. Last year its economy grew by 2.3%, well below the national average of 5%. A big problem is its long-standing dependence on coal https://t.co/DII0r0ifrV ...

“For a long time Shanxi has prospered on coal, but also been trapped by it,” Xi Jinping has said. Yet efforts to wean the province off the fossil fuel have achieved little.Entrenched interests and inefficient government are obstacles https://t.co/Cd6nC453cF ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly in relation to the **anti-involution push** and **social welfare initiatives** introduced by Beijing to address the "3D" challenges facing the country [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-side Dynamics**: There has been an **uneven rebound in upstream prices** in July, with notable increases in specific sectors: - **Polycrystalline silicon** prices increased by approximately **30% month-to-date (MTD)** from late June. - **Lithium hydroxide** prices rose by about **8%**. - **Coal** prices saw a **4%** increase [2][20]. - **Demand-side Concerns**: The sustainability of the price rebound is contingent on **final demand**. The current recovery in upstream prices may not be sustainable without a corresponding increase in consumer demand, which has been sluggish [3][4]. - **Final Demand Trends**: - The **housing market** and **export recovery** were critical in previous cycles (2015-2018) for successful reflation. However, current indicators suggest a potential moderation in exports, particularly to the US, due to declining restocking demand [4][10]. - **Construction activity** remains weak, with demand for **rebar** and **cement** below 2024 levels, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market and local government financing [7][24]. - **Social Dynamics Indicator**: Recent surveys indicate a decline in sentiment among depositors, with perceptions of the employment situation reaching a record low. This reflects broader economic challenges and aligns with the recent policy shifts aimed at addressing these issues [7][26]. Additional Important Insights - The **July Politburo meeting** emphasized "high quality" urban renewal as a strategy to mitigate the housing market downturn, suggesting limited infrastructure investment support in the absence of decisive stimulus [7]. - The **Social Dynamics Indicator** has shown renewed challenges in Q2 2025, closely tracking with policy moves such as anti-involution initiatives and expanded social welfare [7][26]. - The report highlights that while upstream sectors may experience price increases due to supply constraints, midstream sectors like **petrochemicals** and **construction materials** have shown muted pricing improvements, indicating a lag in demand recovery [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for various sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Coal Sector - **Focus**: Coking Coal and Thermal Coal Core Insights 1. **Overproduction Issues**: - 22% of sampled coking coal mines are experiencing overproduction, impacting 26% of their volume [2][3] - 14% of sampled thermal coal mines have overproduction issues, affecting 3% of total capacity [4][7] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The met coal price is expected to become attractive for imports when it reaches approximately Rmb1300/ton [2][3] - Thermal coal prices are projected to rebound to Rmb670/ton during the summer but may soften to Rmb610/ton by year-end [4] 3. **Government Policies**: - The National Energy Administration (NEA) and local governments are expected to implement moderate execution of overcapacity policies to balance production stability and local economic interests [3] - The tone from the Xinjiang NDRC appears more lenient compared to Henan and Ordos, indicating varying regional approaches to overproduction management [3] 4. **Production and Cost Analysis**: - The all-in cost for most Chinese met coal is between Rmb600-1,000/ton, leading to losses earlier in the year but returning to profitability recently [3] - Current daily output of met coal is approximately 1.9 million tons, which is 5% higher than the year's low but still 10% below the peak of 2.1-2.2 million tons expected in 2024 [3] 5. **Future Projections**: - The thermal coal production target for Shanxi is set at 1.3 billion tons for 2025, with 662 million tons produced in the first half of 2025 [4] - The expert anticipates a smaller volume impact from overproduction in the current cycle, at most 50% of what was seen in the previous cycles [4] Stock Implications - **Company Exposure**: - Among coal companies, Yankuang has the highest exposure to coking coal and coal spot sales, with 75% of its sales being spot sales, making it the most sensitive to coal price fluctuations [5] Additional Considerations - **Risks**: - Key risks include economic conditions, government policies affecting coal prices, and the balance of supply and demand in the coal sector [8] - Potential for higher-than-expected growth in fixed asset investment (FAI) in the coal sector and looser government policies could impact market dynamics [8] Conclusion - The coal sector in China is facing significant challenges with overproduction, but there are opportunities for price recovery and strategic adjustments in response to government policies. Investors should closely monitor these developments, particularly in relation to specific companies like Yankuang, which are more exposed to market fluctuations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Materials, specifically in the Asia Pacific region [1] - **Market Sentiment**: The industry view is considered attractive by Morgan Stanley [6] Price Movements and Inventory Changes Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices decreased by 1.5% week-over-week (WoW), with inventories down by 1.2% WoW [2] - **Aluminum**: Prices fell by 1.3% WoW, while inventories increased by 1.5% WoW [2] - **Gold**: Price decreased by 1.4% WoW, settling at US$3,290 per ounce [2] Battery Metals - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Prices for industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 9.4% and 8.5% WoW, respectively [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices for industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% and 2.1% WoW, respectively [2] Steel - **HRC and CRC Prices**: Shanghai HRC prices increased by 0.9% WoW, while CRC prices decreased by 0.2% WoW [3] - **Rebar**: Prices rose by 2.3% WoW [3] - **Long Steel Inventories**: Increased by 3.3% WoW [3] Cement and Coal - **Cement Prices**: Decreased by 0.6% WoW to Rmb323 per ton [3] - **Coal Prices**: QHD5500 coal prices increased by 0.5% WoW to Rmb665 per ton, with inventories dropping by 10.8% WoW [3] Glass - **Glass Fiber Prices**: Average prices declined by 1.3% WoW to Rmb3,850 per ton [4] - **Float Glass Prices**: Increased by 2.8% WoW to Rmb1,317 per ton [4] Regulatory Environment - **NDRC Initiatives**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting a unified national market and aims to eliminate 'involution-style' competition [8] - **CISA Recommendations**: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) emphasized the need for regional and product self-discipline, urging enterprises to control production and stabilize prices [8] Analyst Insights - **Analyst Team**: The report includes insights from multiple equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, indicating a collaborative approach to research [5] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has disclosed its investment banking relationships with several companies in the materials sector, which may influence research objectivity [6][18] Stock Ratings - **Coverage Universe**: The report lists various companies within the Greater China Materials sector, with ratings ranging from Overweight to Underweight [62][64] - **Notable Companies**: Companies such as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. are highlighted with their respective ratings [62][64] Conclusion - The Greater China Materials sector is experiencing mixed price movements across various commodities, with regulatory efforts aimed at stabilizing the market. Analysts maintain an attractive outlook for the industry, supported by ongoing price adjustments and inventory management strategies.