Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

Group 1 - WTI September crude oil futures closed at $65.16 per barrel [1] - NYMEX August natural gas futures closed at $3.1100 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.0970 per gallon [1] - NYMEX August heating oil futures closed at $2.4062 per gallon [1]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical and trading advisory service, providing insights and education on market trends [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com, showcasing his expertise in market analysis [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service, indicating his involvement in agricultural market analysis [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical specials on Kitco.com, highlighting his ongoing engagement with market developments [3]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: After the Sino - US tariff eases, gold still has some adjustment needs in the short term but will be supported by factors like the US April CPI data and potential Fed rate cuts, so it may enter a consolidation phase with decreasing volatility; while silver will be supported by tariff relaxation in the short - term, performing more resiliently than gold, but its long - term upside is limited due to economic risks and weakening physical demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tariff suspension doesn't cancel the trade - war background, the US economy faces "stagflation" risks, the Fed may cut rates in the second half of the year, and with the trend of de - dollarization and central bank gold - buying, gold still has long - term allocation value, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **15 - point price on May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: London gold spot decreased by 1.1% to $3227.98 per ounce, London silver spot dropped by 1.2% to $32.74 per ounce, COMEX gold fell by 1.1% to $3231.50 per ounce, COMEX silver declined by 1.3% to $32.89 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2508 decreased by 0.8% to 761.72 yuan per gram, AG2508 decreased by 0.6% to 8195 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 758.22 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.6% to 8163 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Tracking**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.5 yuan per gram on May 14, 2025, with a change of - 8.6% compared to May 13; silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan per kilogram, also with a - 8.6% change. Gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by 37.3% to 11.45 yuan per gram, and silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by - 13.9% to - 350 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **As of May 13, 2025 vs. May 12, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.27% to 936.51 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.21% to 13999.7497 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.22% to 237445 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.74% to 74948 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.50% to 162497 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 3.57% to 70335 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.38% to 21083 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 1.38% to 49252 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 17238 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.36% to 919463 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.39% to 39270532 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.25% to 503481115 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Related Market Data - **As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.98, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.01% to 4.02%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.90% to 4.49%, NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.72% to 5886.55, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.20, VIX decreased by 0.92% to 18.22, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.70% to 63.63 [4]. 3.5 Market News - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021, and 0.2% month - on - month [4]. - The US House Ways and Means Committee announced the Trump tax reform plan, proposing to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade, cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion, and raise the national debt ceiling by $6 trillion [4]. 3.6 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On May 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.11% to 761.72 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.16% to 8195 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, gold may enter a consolidation phase, and silver shows more resilience; medium - to - long - term, gold still has allocation value and the strategy is to buy on dips [4].

Core Insights - Abaxx Technologies Inc. has filed an early warning report regarding its increased holdings in Base Carbon Inc. following the acquisition of 3,700,000 common shares for C$1,515,150 at C$0.4095 per share [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Prior to the acquisition, Abaxx held 15,639,630 common shares of Base, representing 14.32% of the outstanding shares on an undiluted basis [2] - After the acquisition, Abaxx's total holdings in Base increased to 19,339,630 common shares, representing 17.7% of the outstanding shares on an undiluted basis [2] - The acquisition resulted in an increase of more than 2% in Abaxx's ownership of Base since the last early warning report [2] Group 2: Strategic Intent - The shares were acquired as part of Abaxx's strategic interest in Base and for investment purposes [3] - Abaxx may consider acquiring additional securities of Base or selling its holdings in the future, depending on market conditions and other relevant factors [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Abaxx Technologies is focused on building smarter markets through enhanced financial technology and market infrastructure, particularly addressing challenges related to the energy transition [5] - The company is a majority owner of Abaxx Exchange and Abaxx Clearing, which are recognized by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [5][6] - Abaxx Exchange and Abaxx Clearing aim to provide better price discovery and risk management tools for commodities essential to the transition to a lower-carbon economy [6]