Core Insights - Gold reached a record high of $4,197.6 per ounce, marking a nearly 60% increase in 2025 alone, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1][2] - Over $21 billion exited major crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, following a recent market crash, reflecting a change in risk appetite among investors [2][3] Gold Market - The surge in gold prices is characterized as a "flight-to-safety rotation," with investors de-risking ahead of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book release [3][5] - Analysts predict that qualitative data from the Beige Book could pivot market sentiment, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [5] Crypto Market - The outflows from crypto exchanges are seen as a result of leveraged positions unwinding in risk assets, rather than a permanent abandonment of the crypto market [3][6] - Historical trends indicate that when traders anticipate tightening or hawkish commentary, liquidity tends to migrate from high-beta assets like crypto to non-yielding stores of value such as gold [6]

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim is a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational, and trading advisory service, providing insights into market trends [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com, showcasing his expertise in market analysis [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service, indicating his involvement in agricultural market analysis [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com, further emphasizing his extensive background in equity markets [2] - Daily market updates and technical analysis are provided by Wyckoff on Kitco.com, highlighting his ongoing engagement with market participants [3]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures experienced a decline on September 24, following a week where gold reached historical highs, indicating normal profit-taking behavior in the market [1] - The latest price for December gold futures is reported at $3,798.20, with a decrease of $17.50, while spot gold prices are approximately $30 lower [1] Group 2 - Global stock markets showed mixed trends overnight, with the US stock market reaching historical highs on Monday and expected to continue a slight upward trend during the New York trading session [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted risks in the US labor market and inflation outlook, describing the current situation as "extremely challenging" without signaling any specific direction for the upcoming October FOMC meeting [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures show a clear advantage for bulls, with the next upward target being to push the futures closing price above the key resistance level of $3,900.00 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at this week's high of $3,824.60, with further resistance at $3,850.00; the first support level is at Tuesday's low of $3,772.40, with additional support at this week's low of $3,718.10 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.36% to 835.08 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.77% to 9,906 yuan/kilogram. As the interest rate cut is about to be implemented, the market is worried about the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" risk. Asian - session precious metals showed an early downward trend, with silver performing weaker than gold. However, in the European and American sessions, precious metals rebounded. In the short - term, after the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals prices will enter a high - level shock. In the long - term, with the Fed restarting interest rate cuts and having more room for cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On September 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3,675.20 per ounce, London Silver Spot was at $41.91 per ounce, COMEX Gold was at $3,712.20 per ounce, and COMEX Silver was at $42.24 per ounce. Compared with September 16, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.5% and silver down about 1.9% - 2.2%. In the domestic market, AU2510 was at 835.08 yuan/gram, AG2510 was at 9,906 yuan/kilogram, AU(T + D) was at 832.55 yuan/gram, and AG(T + D) was at 9,892 yuan/kilogram, all showing a decline [5] Spread/Ratio and Price Spread Analysis - On September 17, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.53 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 16, the gold spread decreased by 38.0%, and the silver spread decreased by 22.2%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 84.30, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 87.89, showing an increase compared with September 16 [5] Position Data - As of September 16, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 979.95 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 15,217.84357 tons, showing an increase compared with September 15. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 2.87%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.72%, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 4.89%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.71%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.16%, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 3.55% [5] Inventory Data - On September 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 54,126 kilograms, an increase of 1.69% compared with September 16. SHFE silver inventory was 1,221,428 kilograms, a decrease of 0.80% compared with September 16. COMEX gold inventory on September 16 was 39,166,833 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.04% compared with September 15, and COMEX silver inventory was 524,632,441 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.57% compared with September 15 [5] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On September 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.10, a decrease of 0.02% compared with September 16. The US dollar index on September 16 was 96.64, a decrease of 0.73% compared with September 15. The 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.85%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.25%, the VIX increased by 4.27%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.13%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 2.01% [5]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service called "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also been a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

Group 1 - WTI September crude oil futures closed at $65.16 per barrel [1] - NYMEX August natural gas futures closed at $3.1100 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.0970 per gallon [1] - NYMEX August heating oil futures closed at $2.4062 per gallon [1]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical and trading advisory service, providing insights and education on market trends [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com, showcasing his expertise in market analysis [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service, indicating his involvement in agricultural market analysis [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical specials on Kitco.com, highlighting his ongoing engagement with market developments [3]